moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 33 minutes ago, dryslot said: I guess, If 975mb is considered weak. I must be missing something---I see late for SNE. Of course, what do I know.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 What would a compromise look like? A weaker as storm that gets going quicker than the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 16 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I must be missing something---I see late for SNE. Of course, what do I know.... Euro is still a bomb as it rapidly develops the secondary over SE MA and tracks it into the GOM and thru KBHB dropping the pressure 20mb in 6 hrs from 995mb to 975mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 21 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: What would a compromise look like? A weaker as storm that gets going quicker than the gfs? Probably a stronger one if it gets going earlier, It develops to late for most on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: GEFS do. Op tossed Sooner or later, Your going to need the OP to pick up on it, But this far out we ride the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 23 minutes ago, dryslot said: Sooner or later, Your going to need the OP to pick up on it, But this far out we ride the ensembles The gets agree with eps? I guess the point is moot with 12z coming out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: The gets agree with eps? I guess the point is moot with 12z coming out 12z GFS OP still to late developing the SLP, But GEFS agree with the EPS and ECMWF OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z GFS OP still to late developing the SLP, But GEFS agree with the EPS and ECMWF OP Merry xmas everyone, sorry, is this for Thursday event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Euro probably too amped. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 16 minutes ago, 512high said: Merry xmas everyone, sorry, is this for Thursday event? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Euro probably too amped. We'll see. Possibly, But it has some support, A blend of the GFS/Euro would still provide a decent event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Possibly, But it has some support, A blend of the GFS/Euro would still provide a decent event Sort of like Canadian. I could see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Seasonal trends would argue for less amped, as would Euro tendencies. But is the evolution proposed different than what we've seen so far this year? We haven't had a strong secondary for quite a while have we? GFS is sometimes late to the party on these kinds of storms...also a model tendency. Lets see what the UK GEM say today. I think an expectation of 3-6 is fair at this point. Maybe it develops big and we get our first big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sort of like Canadian. I could see that. Just looked at the canadien, The 0z looked better then the 12z, The 12z looked more like the GFS but most of the storms this year so far have looked more like the GFS/GGEM with more of over runners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 WPC no longer mentions secondary development. They talk about a strong low near Easter ME. Guess they are starting to lean away from a coastal redevelopment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 They are leaning GFS then as its a late blooming northern stream s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro probably too amped. We'll see. Would not be the 1st nor last time we see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Gefs mean looks decent for interior, like ORH on N and E. It looks to be a better deal for Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: They are leaning GFS then as its a late blooming northern stream s/w Seems that way, as they were mentioning secondary development as recently as yesterday. Seems the Euro is sliding...and the GFS rising. However, we could trend better from this point as it is 5 days out, and day 4 or 3 is often the time that models either start to bring something back, or start to show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Well and perhaps with the GEFS not so far from the Euro...that could be a signal that the Euro isn't out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 The real differnce between the GFS and Euro is the Euro develops the secondary over LI and then tracks it over SE MA into DE Maine whereas the GFS develops it over DE Maine then blows it up in the maratimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 35 minutes ago, dryslot said: The real differnce between the GFS and Euro is the Euro develops the secondary over LI and then tracks it over SE MA into DE Maine whereas the GFS develops it over DE Maine then blows it up in the maratimes Both models playing to their biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Learned from all the past miller B events where they tend to not develop as quickly as advertised. West areas need the perfect scenario on these to cash in while the east has more wiggle room. Not buying the euro but gfs can be too late with it so the cop out term, "compromise" is in order at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 20 hours ago, ono said: The northern Green mts are doing pretty well- the snowpack is above average, but for snowfall- it seems like it's slightly above average? A few high-QPF events that were upslope driven as PF/J.Spin noted really helped out the snowpack. Average snowfall through New Years day is something around 100-105" at Stowe/Smuggs. So an active pattern in the next week could bump it up nicely- even if another foot fell, that would be just 25% above average, and still within ~1 S.D. (just guessing at this point)- so a "high normal" so far, perhaps? Though really good given several bummer Decembers recently. so far this has been a good year for snow (and great for snowpack) A great start- no complains, yet it's not exactly extraordinary. Here in Burlington/Champlain valley- temperatures been seasonal to mild lately with modest snow- maybe just average (or even slightly below at this point). Still, much much better than last year. 19 hours ago, powderfreak said: This is more like how it should be, lol. Last winter was record bad, and we've been in the shadows in recent seasons. Like the Stake depth of 38" after the rain is still the max depth of all of last season. But it's no where near record high. Whenever we have what we think of a more normal season it does snow almost every day...it's just been a string of 80s type winters it seems for the mountains. Go back like 4 years and you get more into the stuff we were used to where it snows a trace or more on 21+ days of a month. The days of drunk SnowNH rants at 3am about the snow in northern Vermont lol. 19 hours ago, powderfreak said: Yeah good summary...it's solid and feels awesome after the past several winters to have a more normal snow rate. Mountains have definitely done better than the valleys but even relative to normal it may not be that much different, I don't know. The COOP averages 1-2.2" of snow PER DAY through the winter and that's a place that has decent under-catch. So normal is still netting 12-18" a week. This week we are below normal snow, after three weeks above normal so it's starting to normalize again. Just remember it's supposed to snow 1.5" or so a day on average and that's a good place to base expectations on. And the ski towns should land in the 24-36" per month range. I’ll bring some additional NVT data into the picture, but the comments above are right on track – the season around here is most definitely not in the realm of extraordinary. Looking at my snowfall/snowpack data, one almost couldn’t draw up a more “average” start to the season from the valley perspective. Season snowfall is right around average (and will actually be falling below average in a couple days if we don’t have anything new) and snowpack is a couple inches below average. PF gave the typical ski town snowfall averages for the month, and my data would suggest we’re probably near the top of that range with roughly a 36-40” December average. We’re at 26.1” of snow for the month, but in big Decembers like ‘07-‘08 and ‘08-‘09 we were already past 50” on the month and 70” on the season at this point. Looking at the forecast, and with only six days to go in the month, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this December came in below average for snowfall. We just haven’t had any big storms this month (largest was 5.4”), and even with our consistent daily snowfalls, you’ve got to have at least one or two biggies if you want to get into a notable month. With so few days left in the month, and 10-14” inches left to get to average, we’ve essentially got to have a big event now for this month to hit mean snowfall. But if we don’t get to average, it’s not that big of an issue if one is looking for snow in the mountain areas – average, or even below average snowfall, is generally snowy enough. It starts to become an issue when one gets way below average snow and above average temperatures like last season. It’s different the farther one gets into SNE – look at the white Christmas percentages, they’re below 50% for a lot of the region, so that’s probably what people should expect in an average December. Things have been a bit askew the past few seasons to varying degrees in different locales, but what we’re seeing this December seems to be one of the more “average” snowfall/snowpack situations we’ve had in a while for the region as a whole. Enjoy it, it’s the only average you’ve got, and whatever other things people say on that topic, etc. etc. etc. High elevations like Mt. Mansfield have definitely had a nice start, but the “NNE winter” talk should be taken just as tongue-in-cheek as it’s mean to be. It’s just a nod to the fact that if the region as a whole is running around average, it’s always an “NNE winter”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Euro. #NNEwinter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Euro. #NNEwinter.Tough to go against the seasonal trend until patten looks more conducive to coastal areas. Up and in..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Stays the course with accumulating snow for areas away from coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Euro not giving in, One of them is going to at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Euro not giving in, One of them is going to at some pointDéjà vu. Seems we've seen this movie before. I think last time euro folded like a cheap tent. Maybe this time it score the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Seems like fir the folks along the water it's one of those rain to snow scenarios . Maybe even mix to snow interior sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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