Model Mayhem!

[Googlymoogly]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/mean-sea-level-pressure-wind-speed-850-hpa-and-geopotential-500-hpa?time=2016122300,0,2016122300&parameter=Geopotential 500 hPa and Temperature at 850 hPa&area=North America

I regret asking!!!!!!!! These likely won't verify.

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/mean-sea-level-pressure-wind-speed-850-hpa-and-geopotential-500-hpa?time=2016122300,0,2016122300&parameter=Geopotential 500 hPa and Temperature at 850 hPa&area=North America

if I am reading that right does it suggest a neg tilt trough to our west with a cutter?  But then the trough moves east over us and it looks like high pressure builds in the NA towars Greenland.

[Hazey]

AIT. Have to have patience before setting up the party balloons and streamers.

Looking like we'll wait until the new year for any real winter threats. Not ruling out a rogue one but the prospects look bleak. I'm sure there will be a mass sale of toasters on Boxing Day after a couple of cutters and green grass showing.

[mahk_webstah]

A nice tidbit from the overnight WPC discussion:

 

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION THU/FRI COULD LEAD TO SNOWY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND A WETTENED/WAVY TRAILING FRONTAL SWEEP ACROSS THE
ERN/SRN US THAT MAY LEAD TO SECONDARY MID-ATLANTIC TO WINTERY NEW
ENG COASTAL LOW FORMATION NEXT FRI.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, Hazey said:

AIT. Have to have patience before setting up the party balloons and streamers.
 

Looking like we'll wait until the new year for any real winter threats. Not ruling out a rogue one but the prospects look bleak. I'm sure there will be a mass sale of toasters on Boxing Day after a couple of cutters and green grass showing.

My God Debbie.  When did you become such a Downer?  Has been a good Dec for 2/3 of the land mass of New England, and prospects are good heading into NY

[ORH_wxman]

Still 6-7 days out. But in this pattern a cutter solution is certainly a possibility. Hopefully it trends back more toward front ender with secondary but it could easily just stay warmer. That's the pattern we're in. Gotta just roll with the punches. As the seasonal baroclinic zone keeps moving S, we will probably have slightly better and better chances of getting a system or two to slide underneath our latitude. 

[Googlymoogly]

13 minutes ago, Hazey said:

AIT. Have to have patience before setting up the party balloons and streamers.
 

Looking like we'll wait until the new year for any real winter threats. Not ruling out a rogue one but the prospects look bleak. I'm sure there will be a mass sale of toasters on Boxing Day after a couple of cutters and green grass showing.

After that, though, the force awakens. A new hope, one might say. 

[Damage In Tolland]

All those Gone Wild posts yesterday too . 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

All those Gone Wild posts yesterday too . 

That was more for Jan. There is nothing wild about the next 7-10 days. The 29th always looked borderline here.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That was more for Jan. There is nothing wild about the next 7-10 days. The 29th always looked borderline here.

16 posts-its happening 12/23/16!

[Googlymoogly]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All those Gone Wild posts yesterday too . 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

16 posts-its happening 12/23/16!

He won't address it 

[Hazey]

My God Debbie.  When did you become such a Downer?  Has been a good Dec for 2/3 of the land mass of New England, and prospects are good heading into NY

Merry Christmas to you and your family. Enjoy your fzra and icy torch.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah the 11-15 has still gone wild with EPO ridge and perhaps is even showing transient NAO ridging? Don't want to call it a block...but anyway. 

The 30th threat had 00z models lay a turd but nothing has changed beyond that. 30th could easily come back...remember when dec 17th was basically a warm cutter with very little front end snow 6-7 days out? So there's still plenty of time for that one. But don't get invested in it...might not come back either. 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah Jan does look interesting. I'd prefer the GEFS because they seem to show less cutter potential, but that's the risk in these patterns. Deep troughing carving out in the west and Plains, so you know the drill. As Will said...if we got the sort of east -NAO look...it would help here. I'm not really betting on that right now. 

[Hazey]

After that, though, the force awakens. A new hope, one might say. 

Lol good one. Well if we don't get a storm, there is always the movie to take the edge off. I heard it's great.

[Googlymoogly]

1 minute ago, Hazey said:

Lol good one. Well if we don't get a storm, there is always the movie to take the edge off. I heard it's great.

I know this isn't the point of this thread, but yes - very very good. Very much thematically a SW film with enough nuance to feel fresh. Anyway - despite some model runs and folks complaining, the difference b/t this and last Dec is so profound that it's hard to feel bummed about this winter. 

[moneypitmike]

RGEM suggests this may go a little further across the region than just GC:

Tonight

A chance of snow and freezing rain after 5am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 31. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Saturday

Snow and freezing rain before noon, then rain and snow likely between noon and 3pm. High near 38. Southwest wind 7 to 11 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

[Hazey]

I know this isn't the point of this thread, but yes - very very good. Very much thematically a SW film with enough nuance to feel fresh. Anyway - despite some model runs and folks complaining, the difference b/t this and last Dec is so profound that it's hard to feel bummed about this winter. 

Agreed on both counts. I know my post sometimes rub people the wrong way but it's just weather. If it looks bleak, than I'll post on that. If it looks great, I'll be bobo the clown leading the circus...lol. No point blowing sunshine up peoples butts. It is what it is. As stated, the potential is there but it's wait till after New Years.

[Bostonseminole]

man this is some boring weather, maybe we can sneak something in around NY's otherwise.. looks like things get more active after the 3rd.. Happy Holidays to all, will be back on when something interesting happens.

[Damage In Tolland]

All the cold from -epo dumps into the west first week of Jan , which means 1 or 2 potential cutters until the cold is pulled to east. So you're now looking at 2nd week of Jan for any wintry threats 

[Lava Rock]

Reading GYX, the overnight trends look warmer and wetter for Saturday and Monday.  Slightly depressing, as I was hoping for a net gain going towards NY.  Hope we trend back colder.

This. And next Friday looks wet too, but too far out

[Googlymoogly]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All the cold from -epo dumps into the west first week of Jan , which means 1 or 2 potential cutters until the cold is pulled to east. So you're now looking at 2nd week of Jan for any wintry threats 

Your attitude literally changes every day.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Googlymoogly said:

Your attitude literally changes every day.

Weather is all emotion 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Googlymoogly said:

Your attitude literally changes every day.

He's like this constantly....One day he's locking in winter, the next he's canceling most of January and Feb is warm too.  

 

Wait until later this afternoon when the Ensembles come out, if they show something good he will become happy Kevin again.  If not...Morch is on the way even if it's only the 3rd day of winter.

 

IMO, it's been a very decent December!!  

[Damage In Tolland]

I wasn't excited yesterday. I didn't particularly like the look the next 2 weeks. I'm on board for after Jan 7. Until then not much happens winter wise in SNE imo 

[J Paul Gordon]

I've learned to be a little bit more "zen" about weather as I've aged. Sure, still prefer my imaginary climate--never above freezing from November 1 thru March 30, a couple hundred inches of snow, then a low dewpoint, sunny, warm season with just enough rain to keep the fire danger down.

Reality is another thing and investing too much emotion in the uncontrollable is a prescription for a pretty miserable life.

It will snow and it may snow big this winter--almost a guarantee at our latitude, especially inland. And if not here in SNE, then just a bit further north. Anyone can jump in the car and drive north a couple of hours to see it. That's not true for a huge swath of the country.

Meantime, a Joyous Christmas and a Happy New Year (and a Happy Hanukkah, Kwanzaa and all the rest) 

[Typhoon Tip]

If folks are using the circumstances leading and during the 17th as an example .. just be careful. That was a unique sort of set up.  The entirety of the 17th did contain a 'cutter,' with a   primary low that translated in tact, bodily moving west of New England. The snow that came was technically from a different mechanics more indirectly related.  

The snows we had were really unique in that set up - the antecedent -EPO had loaded Canada with very cold air.  The SD anomalies were between -1.5 and nearly -3 spread throughout the entire continent; a well time nuanced bought of confluence rippling through southern and SE Canada helped build transient polar sfc high on the back side of Maritime trough amplitude during the day and half prior to the snow... That inserted a plume of said very cold air mass into the region for an 18 to 30 hour stay; such that the initial push of warm sector up into the OV ran into, and over the top of it ...Together with the intense BL forcing (cold) below, working in in concert with in situ very fast flow aloft, a warm frontal wave was an easy result.

For one, we are (technically in error) referring to that as a secondary. It really was nothing more than a wave on a warm boundary that developed amidst the overrunning, but was not the same as a Miller B/mechanically forced secondary (the trough at the time was still back over Colorado!) ... Which given the entire synoptic evolution of that period, I submit the overrunning and snows to mix scenario would likely have occurred if that wave on the warm frontal slope had developed or not.

IN other words snow enthusiasts got lucky.. that the very cold air 'tucked' (despite the scale, and for lack of better word) in time, just as the mid and u/a flow was intensifying aloft. 

One may get a sense of all this with their own review: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/pdf/DWM5016.pdf 

[Hazey]

If folks are using the circumstances leading and during the 17th as an example .. just be careful. That was a unique sort of set up.  The entirety of the 17th did contain a 'cutter,' with a   primary low that translated in tact, bodily moving west of New England. The snow that came was technically from a different mechanics more indirectly related.  

The snows we had were really unique in that set up - the antecedent -EPO had loaded Canada with very cold air.  The SD anomalies were between -1.5 and nearly -3 spread throughout the entire continent; a well time nuanced bought of confluence rippling through southern and SE Canada helped build transient polar sfc high on the back side of Maritime trough amplitude during the day and half prior to the snow... That inserted a plume of said very cold air mass into the region for an 18 to 30 hour stay; such that the initial push of warm sector up into the OV ran into, and over the top of it ...Together with the intense BL forcing (cold) below, working in in concert with in situ very fast flow aloft, a warm frontal wave was an easy result.

For one, we are (technically in error) referring to that as a secondary. It really was nothing more than a wave on a warm boundary that developed amidst the overrunning, but was not the same as a Miller B/mechanically forced secondary (the trough at the time was still back over Colorado!) ... Which given the entire synoptic evolution of that period, I submit the overrunning and snows to mix scenario would likely have occurred if that wave on the warm frontal slope had developed or not.

IN other words snow enthusiasts got lucky.. that the very cold air 'tucked' (despite the scale, and for lack of better word) in time, just as the mid and u/a flow was intensifying aloft. 

One may get a sense of all this with their own review: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/pdf/DWM5016.pdf 

Great post. I always thought it was nothing more than fluke that folks got as much snow out of that system as they did, myself included. No way a system should have given that much frozen with that track. Anyway still counts despite the luck. We take.

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Great post. I always thought it was nothing more than fluke that folks got as much snow out of that system as they did, myself included. No way a system should have given that much frozen with that track. Anyway still counts despite the luck. We take.

OH sure -

by "still counts" ... no attempt to discredit what it was.  It was a solid over-performing advisory level event - a Warning would have been justified for a lot of results.  We had 6.1" here, but 7 or 8 just up the road.. etc.

The purpose is to point out that the word "unique" (given to the timing of particulars as described...) by definition means that it 'might not happen very often like that' ... so, comparing to the 17th is dicey. 

I think the reason the comparison is made is sound, however - that point was ... it can snow despite all apparent intents and purposes of the atmosphere.  ha!  We had for the most part NO favoring teleconnector signals in play... but, idiosyncrasies parlayed.   In so much as keeping vigil that at our latitude/longitude, our climate allows for such oddities (relative to all...) the upshot is that we always have some probability in the bank during lesser desirable times. I agree with that much -

It's partially why I started that tongue in cheek desperation thread for that gnat disturbance rippling by later tomorrow.  I mean ... it's better than 0 chance