dryslot Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Nice wintry week shaping up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 We snow Wintery appeal Days and days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 1 hour ago, dryslot said: 12z Euro 2-3" here for tomorrow EURO real juicy for that. Surprised to see 0.2-.3" QPF over a wide area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Just now, powderfreak said: EURO real juicy for that. Surprised to see 0.2-.3" QPF over a wide area. Good looking run overall as well for the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Someone help me out here...is that considered a "vortex" over Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Good looking run overall as well for the week I just got the wreaths and lights up. All that's missing is a little white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Just now, moneypitmike said: I just got the wreaths and lights up. All that's missing is a little white. Its on the way, looks good Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Watch the low levels in this pattern. Could be some surprises for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Someone help me out here...is that considered a "vortex" over Canada? Yes that is the PV. That big ridge to the NW in AK is responsible for pushing it south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Wow is that day 10 look extremely cold for the Northern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes that is the PV. That big ridge to the NW in AK is responsible for pushing it south. Yes, I see the 480 thickness under that sucker. An extraordinary mass of cold air if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its on the way, looks good Mike Thanks, Jeff. 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes that is the PV. That big ridge to the NW in AK is responsible for pushing it south. When it was all in the news last (?) year, where was it situated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 I don't like the fact that the GFS, and EURO dropped our big storm for the 11-13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 13 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I don't like the fact that the GFS, and EURO dropped our big storm for the 11-13th. sh*t happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 42 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I don't like the fact that the GFS, and EURO dropped our big storm for the 11-13th. ....which is why you don't post on Facebook that a blizzard is coming 8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 Could still come back at this lead time, but the point remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2016 Share Posted December 4, 2016 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: ....which is why you don't post on Facebook that a blizzard is coming 8 days out. Yeah. I don't think saying "dropped our big storm" when it's 9 days out is really being fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I don't like the fact that the GFS, and EURO dropped our big storm for the 11-13th. This is where too much model data is a bad thing. If models only went to 7 days you'd never know it even didn't happen. People used to get weenie tagged for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: ....which is why you don't post on Facebook that a blizzard is coming 8 days out. Who posted this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 42 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This is where too much model data is a bad thing. If models only went to 7 days you'd never know it even didn't happen. People used to get weenie tagged for that. Unfortunately there are alot of people in these forums who live and die by every model run, if you do that you will drive yourself crazy. It is very easy to get caught up in the whole thing though especially when the models are showing cold and snow which is what most of us want to see during the winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 41 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Unfortunately there are alot of people in these forums who live and die by every model run, if you do that you will drive yourself crazy. It is very easy to get caught up in the whole thing though especially when the models are showing cold and snow which is what most of us want to see during the winter months. Most should know better then to allow themselves get sucked in on a 7-10 day model prog, Model skill in that range is marginal at best and will have systems come and go until inside day 5, Even then there has been times they are not right, It should be taken at face value at that lead time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Who posted this? I won't call anyone out, but you can guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah. I don't think saying "dropped our big storm" when it's 9 days out is really being fair. I was disappointed last night...not going to lie....but its nothing that I'd make a stink about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Guidance struggling for this weeks events. I didn't think the mid week threat looked good but I didn't think it would go bye bye either. Still not ready to close the book on the 12-13th period but that is looking bleak now too. Is what it is. Maybe it will come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 This is the 12z ensemble geps and gefs suite for the 12-13th. Pick your storm track any storm track..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 The 12-13th shortwave is attaching itself to the PV vortex over the Southern Canadian Prairies. Which is why it isn't digging far enough southeast to impact us with a coastal snowstorm. Instead the PNA ridge has died away or squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 GFS is trying to cook up a storm for the 15-16th period of DEC next week. PV energy gets left behind in the 00z NAM at hour 84 over the northern Plains, this is the energy that could spark a storm on the boundary come this weekend. Need to watch this system closely, the GFS speeds it up into the other lead shortwave, while the NAM keeps it back some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 GFS develops a massive +PNA ridge over the Western USA towards day 16. I am watching out for Christmas week for a big storm. Could be rain or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 12z GFS and 12z GGEM both have an overrunning event next Sunday/Monday. GFS is a little more of a robust SWFE while GGEM is more clipper-esque. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 12z GFS and 12z GGEM both have an overrunning event next Sunday/Monday. GFS is a little more of a robust SWFE while GGEM is more clipper-esque. Something to watch. Good airmass ahead of it. Hopefully it doesn't amp up and cut in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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