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Model Mayhem!

SR Airglow

By SR Airglow,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Heh, there it is: the perfunctory tsunamis of 'things should approve around this date' guesses... Then, come mid February, when a week finally looks good ... the inevitable 'it was there but the timing was just off.'

Ha ha.  annyway.. I will say that the CDC does show the EPO flat-lining here before Xmas.  That's at least better than having it be positive - so it's a start. 

As far as Thursday ...my own reservations were that I want(ed) the wave dynamics to actually get relayed off the Pacific and over land.  Sometimes ..though not as frequently as used to happen, the physical soundings over land added back missing and/or pour interpolation into the grids, and then we'd see an immediate morphology in the models - ie., more or less coherence down stream suddenly materializes..  With improvements over the years in model initializations et al, we don't see that as much. no.  However, this thing on Thursday really only needs just 'that' much more wind velocity/mechanics in the midriff latitudes/altitudes of that trough and the NJ model low (like the GGEM) gets a bit more interesting.  Models refuse to add that back ..it's getting hard to imagine they will, admittedly.

None of that is major event, anyway...  but, it's something in an otherwise torturous event dearth, one that is only alleviated by giant yo-yos between warmth and cold? I guess that's interesting in its own rites ... somehow I don't think that's what the average user of this weather-related social media has in mind when they think of interesting weather, tho. :)   

 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, 512high said:

Ray, Do you "think" this year will be snowier then last season? I mean compared to last December we are off to a great start....ty

I'd be absolutely, positively stunned if this year were not snowier anywhere north and west of Boston....I think Boston will be similar...se of there probably will run a deficit relative to last season.

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J Paul Gordon

J Paul Gordon

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh, there it is: the perfunctory tsunamis of 'things should approve around this date' guesses... Then, come mid February, when a week finally looks good ... the inevitable 'it was there but the timing was just off.'

Ha ha.  annyway.. I will say that the CDC does show the EPO flat-lining here before Xmas.  That's at least better than having it be positive - so it's a start. 

As far as Thursday ...my own reservations were that I want(ed) the wave dynamics to actually get relayed off the Pacific and over land.  Sometimes ..though not as frequently as used to happen, the physical soundings over land added back missing and/or pour interpolation into the grids, and then we'd see an immediate morphology in the models - ie., more or less coherence down stream suddenly materializes..  With improvements over the years in model initializations et al, we don't see that as much. no.  However, this thing on Thursday really only needs just 'that' much more wind velocity/mechanics in the midriff latitudes/altitudes of that trough and the NJ model low (like the GGEM) gets a bit more interesting.  Models refuse to add that back ..it's getting hard to imagine they will, admittedly.

None of that is major event, anyway...  but, it's something in an otherwise torturous event dearth, one that is only alleviated by giant yo-yos between warmth and cold? I guess that's interesting in its own rites ... somehow I don't think that's what the average user of this weather-related social media has in mind when they think of interesting weather, tho. :)   

 

The past several days have been fascinating....bitter cold... a nice snowfall.... a (near) total melt off the next day... It's great weather stuff. And it drives home the difference between "preferred" situations and real life. Like so many others on the board I would have "preferred" a couple of feet of snow over a three day period, followed by cold, and more long duration snowfalls (rinse, repeat until April), but the real life stuff is well worth the experince, too. So, yeah, interesting is quite all right in my book. Much better than the endless mild doldrums of last December.

 

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

I think the pronouncements of winter is basically dead until mid or late January are a bit extreme , and frankly even arrogant although I haven't read them.   Granted some of these folks are meteorologists who know a lot more than I will ever know but this seems like a year where it's a bit hard to tell what's going to happen to three for six weeks out. Now it may be that they are right but I'm not sure where the confidence comes .   What I do believe is that we have a hostile pattern for a week or two that still may produce some snow in Central and Northern New England , and possibly even southern New England . 

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

???

where was anything cancelled? It says much of Jan may be lost but allows for events that are timed correctly. That's what modeling shows for SNE currently. And what mets are thinking is most likely It is what it is. It could change. Absolutely 

Your post was singular in that you said well timed "event" not events.

Also, your other comment said the next "3-4 weeks" which does not take us to the end of January.  That's only the 1st and 2nd weeks of January.

Just brutal posts that are contradictory.  

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

The past several days have been fascinating....bitter cold... a nice snowfall.... a (near) total melt off the next day... It's great weather stuff. And it drives home the difference between "preferred" situations and real life. Like so many others on the board I would have "preferred" a couple of feet of snow over a three day period, followed by cold, and more long duration snowfalls (rinse, repeat until April), but the real life stuff is well worth the experince, too. So, yeah, interesting is quite all right in my book. Much better than the endless mild doldrums of last December.

 

i agree - but ... people will use this social outlet for different reasons.  i guess we can box folks into various 'why' they are using it but who the f cares. 

my point is, some folks care about the wild swings and are interesting in the entire weather macrocosm ... others could care less about weather, per se, or even 'how' it works; their focus on "weather" is primarily whether it is snowing, or convection, hurricanes..etc.  

and all types in between.  i just mean, particularly as we near Xmas - hell, even i am not going to try and claim i don't want a good solid Normal Rockwell Xmas scene ... 

seems just off the top of the head we get 1/3 of our Xmas' at least with a shot across the bow if not white.   if that were true then obviously 66.x percent chance any given year of having renegade browned oak leaves flopping across one's lawn... 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Your post was singular in that you said well timed "event" not events.

Also, your other comment said the next "3-4 weeks" which does not take us to the end of January.  That's only the 1st and 2nd weeks of January.

Just brutal posts that are contradictory.  

 

Sorry you aren't succeeding at reading comprehension. But that's something to talk about elsewhere. 

I'll make it easier .. the pattern looks unfavorable the next month or so. If there's well timed cold air and moisture.. it certainly can snow 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh and Modeling is any good past day 10???...especially this season so far???    Yet the next month is unfavorable?   You or anybody else for that matter can't possible know that.

 

Your looking good for your northern maine trip, They will add over the next 10 days

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes it is Jeff...Looking quite forward to it, leave a week from today.  Best December up there in quite some time...conditions can't get much better.  I'm excited!!

Lava rock was up there this weekend and rode 200+ miles Saturday i believe

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Hazey

Hazey

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, leo1000 said:

It looks like it may take a true miracle to get snow here before Christmas. This will be the third Christmas in a row that we have had a green Christmas. 

Trends are not our friend today. Still time for a correction but the clock is running out. We've had it pretty good here this dec. lots of snow. I've had more in late nov till now, than I have had in the last two nov-dec seasons combined. 

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