Model Mayhem!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doesn't look like any consequential snow for the foreseeable future in these parts.

Yeah, E MA may be quiet for the next week or so.  I'm still holding some hope for thursday out here in the NW territories.

Per box evening discussion:

"12Z global CMC and UKMET have added a new wrinkle into their
solutions. Both now initiate coastal cyclogenesis Thursday, which
if it happens, would introduce the possibility of more wintry
weather to southern New England. While not developing a coastal
low, both the GFS and ECMWF have faster timing Thursday. The ECMWF
is quite a bit faster than the GFS. This could also lead to a
wintry mix, as there would not be as much time to heat up before
precipitation arrives.

Generally favored a consensus approach, to smooth over the less
predictable details. Will need to keep a close eye on the Thursday
system. It may take a couple more days to get the details ironed
out."

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, that's worth watching, but I'm not excited.

[dryslot]

I'll keep an eye out on it, Could be a nice freshener

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I think CMC has a potential, while the GFS is still off some.

[78Blizzard]

That is some cold air in southern Canada after the new year on the 0z GFS.  Well below zero for days and days from the east to the west coasts.  A piece of that makes it into northern NE, but it wouldn't take much to send it a bit further south.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Wow, 0z gfs says "sharpen your skates".  6z says polish the golf clubs.

[Googlymoogly]

What about the other models?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

45 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Wow, 0z gfs says "sharpen your skates".  6z says polish the golf clubs.

It had a little snow for NNE but otherwise, multiple cutters.

[weathafella]

39 minutes ago, Googlymoogly said:

What about the other models?

Close the shades until 2017 but keep a sleepy eye out for a perfectly timed wave which could happen but probability is low.

[Googlymoogly]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Close the shades until 2017 but keep a sleepy eye out for a perfectly timed wave which could happen but probability is low.

No more 23rd? Rats. Well, at least it wasn't a boring December. 

[CoastalWx]

This is a pattern that can sneak something in, but as we've said for awhile now, it's still rather hostile...esp in SNE. 

[CoastalWx]

But general theme, colder west...warmer east for the next 2-3 weeks. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Much of Jan may be lost other than a well timed event 

[Ginx snewx]

Back to ZZZZZZ

[Cold Miser]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Much of Jan may be lost other than a well timed event 

I got my 7+" for December.  When I look back at my records it will say that it snowed, even if I  have nothing to show for it and it never lasted more than a few hours on the ground. I will look forward to Maybe closing out the season with a good storm or 2 in Feb. or early March.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

I got my 7+" for December.  When I look back at my records it will say that it snowed, even if I  have nothing to show for it and it never lasted more than a few hours on the ground. I will look forward to Maybe closing out the season with a good storm or 2 in Feb. or early March.

Feb has looked hostile for quite a long time. Hopefully Jan turns around 2nd half 

[Great Snow 1717]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Much of Jan may be lost other than a well timed event 

I realize you are not a fan of Cosgrove, but essentially that is what he said in his latest newsletter regarding January along the East Coast.

[J Paul Gordon]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Feb has looked hostile for quite a long time. Hopefully Jan turns around 2nd half 

Que sera, sera

 

[CoastalWx]

Weenies. I wouldn't write a 4-5 week period off. Just that it looks hostile for the next 2 or 3 weeks. It's looked like that for a month and we still snuck in a half decent December so far in terms of snow.

[Rtd208]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weenies. I wouldn't write a 4-5 week period off. Just that it looks hostile for the next 2 or 3 weeks. It's looked like that for a month and we still snuck in a half decent December so far in terms of snow.

I agree. I think things will start to look better for the Mid Atlantic and New England around the 1st of the new year but it will probably take just a little bit longer to get things going. I think we know how things can change on a dime for better and worse for snow lovers so it wouldn't surprise me if things start to look more favorable sooner but I wouldn't bet on it at this point.

[Great Snow 1717]

10 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I agree. I think things will start to look better for the Mid Atlantic and New England around the 1st of the new year but it will probably take just a little bit longer to get things going. I think we know how things can change on a dime for better and worse for snow lovers so it wouldn't surprise me if things start to look more favorable sooner but I wouldn't bet on it at this point.

Yes things can change on a dime, but I do not see any signs of that happening around the 1st of the new year. I think we will be doing well if there are signs of a change by mid January.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Much of Jan may be lost other than a well timed event 

dang kid, if your gonna make these "get em riled up " statements, try backing it up with some research. and dont just give us a cfs map posted by a twitter met...maybe your own stuff for a change? 

[WinterWolf]

54 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Much of Jan may be lost other than a well timed event 

LMAO.... So you are going to write off a 6 week period(two weeks left to December, and 4 weeks of January),  Your reasoning is pathetic.  I know you post these absurd remarks to get reaction from people, but if behind your methods, if this is how you really view Meteorology...you show just how little you really understand.  Just a crazy statement.

 

You know as well as I do, and anybody here that anything can and will change very quickly.  We are above normal snow at BDL at this point.  Sure the next two weeks aren't looking all that promising, but that can change very quickly.   We got a great event on Saturday(remarkably I have retained most of my snow cover), and if it all melted, so what, but it didn't. 

 

As Scott just said, I wouldn't right off a 4-5 week period from this vantage point.   

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

LMAO.... So you are going to write off a 6 week period(two weeks left to December, and 4 weeks of January),  Your reasoning is pathetic.  I know you post these absurd remarks to get reaction from people, but if behind your methods, if this is how you really view Meteorology...you show just how little you really understand.  Just a crazy statement.

 

You know as well as I do, and anybody here that anything can and will change very quickly.  We are above normal snow at BDL at this point.  Sure the next two weeks aren't looking all that promising, but that can change very quickly.   We got a great event on Saturday(remarkably I have retained most of my snow cover), and if it all melted, so what, but it didn't. 

 

As Scott just said, I wouldn't right off a 4-5 week period from this vantage point.   

Well, he's not the only one who is thinking that January may not be all that great.  JB has stated "Eastern Winter relaxes till at least Jan 10"....and yesterday Cosgrove stated" until the last week of the new month"  Right now there isn't a lot to be positive about regarding winter. Yes, things can change, but the question is how long will the change last for...a week?..a month?..2-3 months? And that is if a change to a more favorable pattern even takes place.

[Damage In Tolland]

Who wrote anything off? We're stating how the next 3-4 weeks look overall. 

Save the lectures for your parents 

[Googlymoogly]

How warm are we talking? 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Much of Jan may be lost other than a well timed event 

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who wrote anything off? We're stating how the next 3-4 weeks look overall. 

Save the lectures for your parents 

You did this AM you putz. 

Why do you contradict yourself all the time here.

These 2 posts are polar opposites.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The next couple of weeks look bleak, but anything would be gravy, anyway....we are going to pull off a normal December; nothing wrong with that.

I have never enjoyed an advisory event as much as I did this past one; absolutely perfect Saturday before Christmas. The ice to cap things off in this area was an added treat, since its so rare.

Got a ton of xmas schopping done in the tremendously festive ambiance that night before the warmth.

Man...savored and enjoyed....even got some pics of the lights while during that 18 hours of Christmas.

This month is ok in my book.

 

Now a nice wintery night with friends on tap at the gtg...what could be better?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Weenies. I wouldn't write a 4-5 week period off. Just that it looks hostile for the next 2 or 3 weeks. It's looked like that for a month and we still snuck in a half decent December so far in terms of snow.

I think January will have plenty of action, and at the coldest climo of the year, writing it off would be asinine.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

You did this AM you putz. 

Why do you contradict yourself all the time here.

These 2 posts are polar opposites.

 

???

where was anything cancelled? It says much of Jan may be lost but allows for events that are timed correctly. That's what modeling shows for SNE currently. And what mets are thinking is most likely It is what it is. It could change. Absolutely