512high Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: New maps are up. Solid advisory. Sweet, nice fluffy till the mix....we take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 hour ago, Hoth said: Yeah Kevin meh'ed himself to about 30" haha. That firehose storm in March was pretty amazing as well. Let us hope. I'll never write off a winter again after '12-'13 and '14-'15. for some of us it was pretty meh outside of the blizzard..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Temp has spiked to 2* at nearly 10:00a.m. Deceptively chilly with the bright sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Nice clipper on the 23rd on the 12z GFS, We add Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 winter's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 i accidentally posted this in the wrong thread like i typically do .. there is a trend in the operational guidance for something in the east around the 23rd of the month. it's been slowly emerging... the UKMET had it more on the 22nd in priors, but has since sans that wave in lieu of better amplitude closer to the 23rd on its 00z guidance as well. both the Euro and GFS oper runs have it too... at least enough presentation in the run to wonder if that's the next opportunity - some 7 to 8 days. couple of quick points: the flow in the deep south and southeast is, at present, zippo compressible. the vile plague of too much heights along the entire girdle ...really as it extends from south of Hawaii clear to south of Bermuda along that entire sub-tropical region, is imposing on the seasonality of lower heights coming south from the n, everywhere. as discussed in prior pages and so forth we end up with a killer gradient/speed abundance that's acting like a detriment to organized cyclogen among other annoyance to winter weather enthusiasts.. interestingly, even though that is so... i'm up to 6" about on the dot here along Rt 2 so far for my seasonal total, and if things break right...perhaps 5" more on top... 11" is really not terribly far from normal. despite the look and truth of the pattern, i'd say we are getting pretty lucky. what is interesting also is that the GEFs -derivatives are really at odds with the GFS's general tempo of the middle and extended range spanning at least 4 cycles and counting. last night's cdc bar-graphs are truly putrid... fetid-corpse-of-winter-bad, actually. yet, the operational models (thank weather enthusiast god) are not nearly as bad. note: that assessment doesn't include the EPS. if it were up to the GEFs entirely... i'd say at some point we don't just break warm but ludicrously so - that spread supports upper tier seasonal departures. so why aren't the operational runs (particularly the big brother GFS) showing more of that? good question - be that as it may, it's actually kind of interesting to see the operational model version tending to actually agree on a D7 general tenor in this sort of run-up. wow. interesting to see where this goes - Also, just noticed that NCEP is actually on top of that 23rd suggestion as well.. .they go out of their way to mention the possibility of interior ne wintry weather toward the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 One thing I have noticed is the models are way to amp happy in the long range. Usually as they get closer, systems have flattened out. The GFS has been real bad for that post 192hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 One thing I have noticed is the models are way to amp happy in the long range. Usually as they get closer, systems have flattened out. The GFS has been real bad for that post 192hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 4 minutes ago, Hazey said: One thing I have noticed is the models are way to amp happy in the long range. Usually as they get closer, systems have flattened out. The GFS has been real bad for that post 192hrs. You have been double posting a lot recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 5 minutes ago, Hazey said: One thing I have noticed is the models are way to amp happy in the long range. Usually as they get closer, systems have flattened out. The GFS has been real bad for that post 192hrs. You have been double posting a lot recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 5 minutes ago, Hazey said: One thing I have noticed is the models are way to amp happy in the long range. Usually as they get closer, systems have flattened out. The GFS has been real bad for that post 192hrs. We got it the first time.................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, mreaves said: You have been double posting a lot recently. 1 minute ago, mreaves said: You have been double posting a lot recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, dryslot said: lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: lol Maybe its a mobile thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 I think every one of his posts the last couple days has been a double post. Might want to check the phone settings...happens most frequently on phones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 6 hours ago, weathafella said: Sub par pattern with some opportunities. Reminds me of 2012-13 winter evolution. Dec 2012 was much warmer, had almost no cold that winter until around 1/20... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I think every one of his posts the last couple days has been a double post. Might want to check the phone settings...happens most frequently on phones. Yeah, I don't post much from the phone, And if i do its tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 The 22-24 period certainly looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 solution centered on Dec 21 looks like it setting up for a higher latitude Miller B/jersey modeler a little... we'll see - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: solution centered on Dec 21 looks like it setting up for a higher latitude Miller B/jersey modeler a little... we'll see - It did, but then didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: It did, but then didn't huh, still looks that way as that wave has progressed to the western OV and there's even weak low there at 144... granted, i'm/we're not looking for ideal set ups in a beg for mercy pattern (ha!) ...but seriously, we can work with that look - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: huh, still looks that way as that wave has progressed to the western OV and there's even weak low there at 144... granted, i'm/we're not looking for ideal set ups in a beg for mercy pattern (ha!) ...but seriously, we can work with that look - I thought you were referring to the Euro specifically. Yeah, it's worth watching for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 It was more Miller B'ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Worth watching (23rd). Seems to favor more CNE/NNE but it's early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 thing is ... if you look closely at the hour 96 over florida and immediately adjacent areas...you have the ungoing maddening pancaked ridge still there, but something changes there that we have seen in recent weeks (really) as the next day unfolds. progress to panel 120 hr, and the heights there have declined some 8 dm unilaterally... the ridge appears to be attenuating; more importantly, this is happen 'prior' to the wave being ejected out of the rockies you see up there at hour 96 in the models total evolution. what that means is that the wave is going to encounter less shearing/absorption - the flow is relaxing ...if perhaps just in time for that. you really need that flow to relax down there, so that when the southern portion of the trough begins to move into the western Tenn Valley, it still can trigger inflow in that region. that's privotal in getting things organized soon enough immediately down stream over the upper ma/ne regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 Modeling seems to dampening out all these wave as we get closer to some of these events from being full blown cutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 the d 7 shows how there is still some shearing taking place...nonetheless, as the trough axis is sloped backward like that... that's because the wave mechanics are still getting absorbed by vestigial ridging down there. but the thing to remember is that it's less inhibiting to wave mechanics - that's a helluva good start considering where we've been with these unrelenting subtropical heights down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 1 hour ago, dryslot said: I did that on purpose. Mockery fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, mreaves said: I did that on purpose. Mockery fail. I thought you were cracking up......lol, I knew the pattern wasn't getting to you..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted December 16, 2016 Share Posted December 16, 2016 16 minutes ago, mreaves said: I did that on purpose. Mockery fail. I chuckled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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