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Model Mayhem!

SR Airglow

By SR Airglow,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was a signature storm that month...I remember we had about 9 inches in ORH followed by brief sleet, to dryslot freezing drizzle. Spent pretty much all day in the teens and 20s, and then maxed out at 31F when the FROPA occurred. It was a huge bust...we were supposed to warm into the upper 30s or low 40s and of course the snowfall was supposed to be 3-6". I was NOWCASTing that storm all night and remember calling up to say the forecast was going to bust...be prepared for more snow.

Anyways...this year has been pretty active so far like that month, but we're not quite getting the same high placements. As discussed already in the past system...the high placement helps not only with holding in the cold at all levels, but it can increase the QPF in those systems...really wring out the atmosphere with big time frontogenesis.

The 12/12 system and this one coming up on Saturday could have been much bigger events if the highs were anchored just a bit better.

Yeah what I'm also seeing from 2007 up here is not even close to whats happening this season... BTV had a 22" snowpack and 46.2" of snowfall that month, which isn't even close to this year.  The mountain towns looked to have peaked in the 26-36" range (28" Stowe compared to 8" now) and up at the Mansfield COOP they had almost 10" of QPF that month and reached a depth of 61" (as opposed to 36" now).  The stake hit 40" on December 6th which is pretty absurd. 

So December 2007 definitely gets the win and its not even that close, even though this has been fun this month. 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

805 PM EST MON DEC 31 2007

...4TH SNOWIEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT BURLINGTON...

AS OF 7 PM EST...BURLINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED 46.2

INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. THIS PLACES BTV AT THE 4TH

SNOWIEST DECEMBER EVER. THE SNOWIEST DECEMBER EVER OCCURRED IN 1970

WHEN 56.7 INCHES FELL.

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leo1000

leo1000

Posted
Posted

Just wondering if anyone can explain to me what Judah Cohen is saying here?. Is he talking about the negative EPO ridge?. One more below, seems to make it clear he thinks winter cold comes back to the NorthEast US. 

 

It's baaack-return of Barents-Kara sea blocking predicted to return. IMO key player for Eurasian winter weather and even possibly N America.

 

In the stratosphere Southeast ridging predicted to disappear, now let's see what happens in the troposphere?

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

The December 3-4, 2007 storm looked like a real fun one to start off the month... 24" of snowfall on 2.70" of liquid at the Mansfield COOP.  And knowing how that thing under-reports/under-catches snowfall.... that's a huge storm right there.  Any idea on what that was?  Upslope or synoptic?  That's a huge amount of QPF in a 48-hour period all with a maximum temperature of 21F and a min of 1F. 

I honestly can't even imagine 2.7" QPF falling at temperatures in the teens and single digits...I'll have to go get the external hard-drive and look at my saved photos from back then.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

The December 3-4, 2007 storm looked like a real fun one to start off the month... 24" of snowfall on 2.70" of liquid at the Mansfield COOP.  And knowing how that thing under-reports/under-catches snowfall.... that's a huge storm right there.  Any idea on what that was?  Upslope or synoptic?  That's a huge amount of QPF in a 48-hour period all in a sub-freezing column.

Prob a huge upslope event behind that storm...the synoptic part probably didn't have more than 3/4th of an inch of liquid. It was a SWFE.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob a huge upslope event behind that storm...the synoptic part probably didn't have more than 3/4th of an inch of liquid. It was a SWFE.

Funny as I guess its not all that far off from the upslope event at the beginning of this December that had 2" of QPF at the COOP and 22" of snow.  But 2.70" liquid is pretty impressive regardless for a 48-hour total.  

Maybe there's something to La Ninas and upslope precipitation.  All the recent Nina's have had huge orographic events, including December 2010 which had a 3-footer.  So far this season we've had at least 1 big orographic event or period in October, November and December. 

I just don't understand the patterns enough to really comment on a possible why that would occur over any other prevailing pattern...or maybe its just recent confirmation bias.  Cold helps but that's not the whole story by any means.  Plenty of cold air masses or below normal regimes have left us high and dry...but looking at the Nina years there seems to be a bigger concentration of whopper orographic events in there.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Maybe its the mid-levels going to the north and/or west of us and then they find their way more easily to the favorable position either in northern Maine or southern Quebec?  Maybe Nina's promote a certain mid-level track that is favorable to getting vertically stacked lows cut-off and spinning in that favorable region for westerly flow upslope?   That's the only thing I can think of.  Upslope is more a function of mid-level tracks I think, even though its caused by lower level winds/moisture.

If the mid-level lows are always going up or off the coast and tracking NE, its not going to advect the deeper moisture back into the region that a SWFE type mid-level track would.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, leo1000 said:

Just wondering if anyone can explain to me what Judah Cohen is saying here?. Is he talking about the negative EPO ridge?. One more below, seems to make it clear he thinks winter cold comes back to the NorthEast US. 

 

It's baaack-return of Barents-Kara sea blocking predicted to return. IMO key player for Eurasian winter weather and even possibly N America.

 

In the stratosphere Southeast ridging predicted to disappear, now let's see what happens in the troposphere?

He's trying to grasp at the Kara Sea ridge as a precursor to blocking. Stratosphere is raging right now. I don't see any weakening. He needs to stop using GFS op runs past hr 300 for the stratosphere.

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Hazey

Hazey

Posted
Posted
All about timing in this pattern.


Yup. It's all about getting the cogs to line up at the right time. It will take some luck but boy how lucky we would be for that to come to fruition that close to Christmas. Some of the other long rangers have been hinting at this timeframe too. Just off and on.
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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

He's trying to grasp at the Kara Sea ridge as a precursor to blocking. Stratosphere is raging right now. I don't see any weakening. He needs to stop using GFS op runs past hr 300 for the stratosphere.

I'm a little worried about the reconsolidation of the stratospheric vortex and stratospheric temperatures dropping. With the restrengthening of La Nina and potentially lower AAM, the Pacific could get ugly w/ a big +EPO in the 12/20-1/10 period. Could be VERY WARM. 

It's a shame the PV split and sudden strat warming occurred so early. With these events happening in late Oct/early Nov (along w brief ENSO warming), it made the favorable period Nov 20-Dec 15. That's too early for those of us near the coast. The 12/12 and Saturday systems would be 3-6/4-8" events in the Bronx and NYC NW burbs in January or February. The warm ocean temps in early-mid Dec kill us with S flow storms like these.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, nzucker said:

I'm a little worried about the reconsolidation of the stratospheric vortex and stratospheric temperatures dropping. With the restrengthening of La Nina and potentially lower AAM, the Pacific could get ugly w/ a big +EPO in the 12/20-1/10 period. Could be VERY WARM. 

It's a shame the PV split and sudden strat warming occurred so early. With these events happening in late Oct/early Nov (along w brief ENSO warming), it made the favorable period Nov 20-Dec 15. That's too early for those of us near the coast. The 12/12 and Saturday systems would be 3-6/4-8" events in the Bronx and NYC NW burbs in January or February. The warm ocean temps in early-mid Dec kill us with S flow storms like these.

where is that evidenced? 

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

This is what I mean about stratospheric temperatures dropping. You can see the spike in the late fall at 50mb (65-90N), followed by a gradual descent towards the mean. Interestingly, you can also see the big spike in mid/late March 2016 that led to record cold and multiple snowfalls in the April 1-10, 2016 period. Anyway, with 10mb temps already below normal and the vortex returning to Greenland and Alaska, we can expect 50mb to go down further, preventing blocking. Chart is shown:

2016-12-15 14.56.49.png

SSTs are also trending somewhat unfavorably, with ENSO Region 3.4 having dropped below -0.5C again accompanied by rapid cooling in other areas of the Tropical PAC and North PAC/PDO regions. Rapid cooling in these areas usually pumps up the SE Ridge for 1-2 weeks, which is enhanced by the abating effects of the early November stratospheric warming/PV disruption. Here is SSTA change in the last week:

2016-12-15 14.57.34.png

 

 

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, nzucker said:

This is what I mean about stratospheric temperatures dropping. You can see the spike in the late fall at 50mb (65-90N), followed by a gradual descent towards the mean. Interestingly, you can also see the big spike in mid/late March 2016 that led to record cold and multiple snowfalls in the April 1-10, 2016 period. Anyway, with 10mb temps already below normal and the vortex returning to Greenland and Alaska, we can expect 50mb to go down further, preventing blocking. Chart is shown:

SSTs are also trending somewhat unfavorably, with ENSO Region 3.4 having dropped below -0.5C again accompanied by rapid cooling in other areas of the Tropical PAC and North PAC/PDO regions. Rapid cooling in these areas usually pumps up the SE Ridge for 1-2 weeks, which is enhanced by the abating effects of the early November stratospheric warming/PV disruption. Here is SSTA change in the last week:

 

 

 

i know what it all means ...

i bolded what i was interested in; you stated there was an SSW back in oct/nov - where is the evidence of that...

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i know what it all means ...

i bolded what i was interested in; you stated there was an SSW back in oct/nov - where is the evidence of that...

Chart is now included, had to delete some old attachments...50mb temps were near record levels in late Oct/early Nov, so there was significant warming of the stratosphere. This usually produces a favorable pattern a few weeks later, and indeed Binghamton had 16" of snow on 11/20, and we had our first coating here in NYC. The arctic outbreak occured about three weeks later, probably influenced by the disruption of the stratospheric PV which allowed the tropospheric PV to move from its normal location in the Arctic towards Quebec and Maine.

Here is what the stratospheric PV split looked like in late October, very dramatic:

2016-12-15 15.14.06.png

 

 

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