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Model Mayhem!


SR Airglow

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah maybe... but there's so much push above the deck even in that nam solution that it's just a likely the llv cad that gets left behind by that feature 33.4 type stuff so what are you gainin'

It's more "what you aren't losing"....you keep your front end thump OTG if you only warm into the 30s.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's more "what you aren't losing"....you keep your front end thump OTG if you only warm into the 30s.

oh.. heh.  k. 

i was thinking folks were shootin' for some icing...which is probably going to happen, too, in a solution like that nam's but again... it's obviously not a big deal either way.  

we still have 2.change inches of cement up there along rt poop btw folks, so also there's perhaps "just that much" feed back available for resistance.  

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When does rain reach Pike?

About 18z on Saturday, at least for eastern areas. Prob a short period of ZR for interior...it's got the sfc freezing line still south of ORH at 18z, but the 850 0C line is almost overhead.

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Man, it's too bad we don't have just a little bit of confluence to backbuild that high even a little more toward N ME...if we did, the thump would be epic, even if we still flipped eventually. We'd prob be talking like 7-10" with more prolonged icing over interior instead of 3-6". Amazing how even some nuances to our northeast could have a pretty large effect on the overall outcome.

 

But that's the way it goes in these patterns...you sometimes don't get those breaks and when you don't, you get a 1980s storm.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Man, it's too bad we don't have just a little bit of confluence to backbuild that high even a little more toward N ME...if we did, the thump would be epic, even if we still flipped eventually. We'd prob be talking like 7-10" with more prolonged icing over interior instead of 3-6". Amazing how even some nuances to our northeast could have a pretty large effect on the overall outcome.

 

But that's the way it goes in these patterns...you sometimes don't get those breaks and when you don't, you get a 1980s storm.

Still hours and hours of dews and 50's?

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