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Model Mayhem!

SR Airglow

By SR Airglow,
in New England

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Modfan

Modfan

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

99.7% of ppl enjoyed last Christmas weather.

We had a Christmas in the 1979-82 range when it is 5 degrees out, the road near me was a steep hill and was great for sledding (this is they only treated the roads with sand) I remember getting my new sled and sledding all day.....

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Modfan said:

We had a Christmas in the 1979-82 range when it is 5 degrees out, the road near me was a steep hill and was great for sledding (this is they only treated the roads with sand) I remember getting my new sled and sledding all day.....

1980

1980-12-23 32 18 25.0 -3.3 40 0 0.28 3.5 4
1980-12-24 35 20 27.5 -0.5 37 0 0.06 0.6 4
1980-12-25 28 -15 6.5 -21.3 58 0 0.00 0.0 4
1980-12-26 17 -14 1.5 -26.0 63 0 0.00 0.0 4
1980-12-27 26 10 18.0 -9.3 47 0 0.00 0.0 4

 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm just saying most of the general public is not sick like us and prefers nice weather for the winter. Fair weather also means no travel headaches around the holiday.

You are absolutely correct.  WE are snow nuts...we'd all love for there to be a white Xmas every year.  But most people only want a few flakes in the air and a dusting at best on the ground on Xmas eve/day, and temps at 33 degrees,  and then let it warm up to the 60's on the 26th.  That is the general publics thinking for the most part if they are NOT snow nuts/winter nuts like us.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Most people were unsettled at the warm humid xmas eve last year.   We went to our cousins house with his wife having her annual xmas eve party-with her being among the few people there actually celebrating the religious part.  Anyway the house was so hot I went out for a walk-no coat-just a sweater.  Many houses were having celebrations with windows open and sweaty people standing outside.  Weird.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Most people were unsettled at the warm humid xmas eve last year.   We went to our cousins house with his wife having here annual xmas eve party-with her being among the few people there actually celebrating the religious part.  Anyway the house was so hot I went out for a walk-no coat-just a sweater.  Many houses were having celebrations with windows open and sweaty people standing outside.  Weird.

Would be better with 4 inches on the ground , sunny and 32 with trees caked. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, weathafella said:

So Kevin, xmas is ruined?   Since it's white less than half the time, I guess you have bad associations with the holiday?    

I always enjoy a white xmas.  Nothing like emerging from the movies on the way to the Chinese restaurant in snow....

ha! god bless em' ... Though in recent years, my family/extended family has taken to actually doing the hors d'oeuvres mid-day followed by the ham later on.  we used to do xmas day movie when i was kid though.   and i can recall a few of those holiday's of yore where you couldn't fathom another sprinkled cookie or cup of grog and fled out to a Chinese restaurant seeking salt - 

as far as the white xmas thing ...meh.  honestly, i used to care ...until some time in my mid 20s. my earlier childhood was in western lower michigan, where we had two chances: one by synoptics; synoptic failing, the lake effect kicked in on backside as cold transported across the still warm early waters of lake michigan. i'm not sure if this thinking stands up to actual hard numbers, but it seems based upon the first 15 years of my life that they have snow on the ground and/or in the air on that day (evening too) ...not every year, but more so than new england.  so, repeating abuses finally got the reality into my mind and soul since moving to this part of the country many years ago ... that it's a stroke of luck around here getting things all line up neatly and orderly, and is delusional to think it is actually just to get snow on that day, in southern new england.  Irving Berlin isn't helping... 

but again, maybe that doesn't hold up to the 300 year statistical data set - that's just the overall color of my experiences, a pool of which now nearing middle age. and, unfortunately... a brown xmas reality that may come to bear more frequently in the decades to come. 

but, we have time folks.  the pattern is pretty staunchly antithetic to one that would offer hope, granted... but, like the last ordeal showed, we can razor out an exception to the rule - certainly at some 10 days out it's a bit early to have much confidence in nothing at all. we'll have to see.. 

read no further if you hate reality - 

for now, .. the interminable se ridge is still winning.  the EPO is still looking to flip phase, and with no counter-intervening sort of mass field indicators helping the winter enthusiasts cause(s) ..you're really in a heat hole until any such time as a fluke or outlier event might anti-correlate its way to taking place.  every teleconnector there is right now that is atmospheric ends winter until further notice.  

but, that's also in deference to the ensemble GEFs.  i haven't seen the EPS.  the operational runs seem almost more optimistic for winter than the implication of the GEFs mean right now - perhaps therein is some presage suggestion (albeit vague at best..) that just such an outlier lurks out there in time. 

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MarkO

MarkO

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

All kidding aside, I'd love to live in NNE at some point. Maybe I'll win the lottery, retire, and just do ski forecasts.  

Don't need to win the lottery. Just do it. I did all the planning, work myself and built it for a little over $100k. I could easily flip it now for $250. This is an old picture from about 3 years ago. 

google earth cabin before after.jpg

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TrueBlue

TrueBlue

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Thanks you as well, She will be riding her sled across that section this year

Well we already have 5 days on the mountain which is 4 more than last year. I sold most of the sleds last year before the deluge. Still have 2 and will buy another after the new year if there is any riding!

 

:fingerscrossed:

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

in theory ... you'd think it'd be hard to replace a -3 or -4 SD deep layer air mass with a +2 or +3 one in as little as 36 hours without some sort of transitional fan-fair - but wonders never cease. 

i just want to remind folks that it can happen though.  something similar took place late in January of 1994. 

the weather lab at dawn was putting up a 9 F up in the heart of the merrimack valley.  the air was dimmed slightly by a fall of flurries ...occasionally falling even hard enough to call it light snow. about an inch later...nearing 11 am, the temperature had risen to 20 F.  

at that hour, the weather map showed a midland intensity low over eastern Ohio with tracks seemingly laid down by the models that took it over Buffalo in route to eastern Ontario.  

sound familiar yet? 

by 1 pm, the temperature was all the way 29 F.  small sleet pellets replaced the light aggregates, and started falling with a bit more urgency. by an hour later at 2 pm, it was 31 F with light freezing rain. no ice mixed in, either. pure liquid... very efficient glazing. the sky texture was changed, too, from totally smooth to streets of gray aligned S to N ...moving with certain rapidity.  

around 4:30 pm the temperature popped rather abruptly to almost 40 F, and the 1/8th inch of glaze was vanished as fast as it accreted.  but, it was still calm air. at around 6 pm, that's when things really changed - as if it hadn't already..  i was in the caff eating dinner and bushes immediately outside the window across the way were moving and swaying really fast. i figured as much, and then was proven right, that the real warm boundary have have moved through during that particular hour if not moment.  and man did it!  i walked out of the caff in awe at some 59 F with howling gales turning and whirling into commons below the buildings of the campus there.  

it actually crept higher yet.  i think it maxed around 63 F at 1 am before the c-front finally cut back through and ended the party.  but one thing i remember that was kind of neat was that the snow banks were all covered in steam and the steam was severing off in great shrouds and blowing/tipping in the direction of gusting winds.  kind of a neat affect actually.  

Anyway, that ordeal was an example of a very cold antecedent air mass with zippo blocking hold it in place. the air mass its self turned around the dial and up and moved out... the only resistance was the temperature its self, which easily fell victim to some 35 kts of gusting erosive power based on deeper layer gradient running up against absolutely 0 counter-balancing pressure pattern.  

the thing with our geography/lat/lon is that typically there's SOME sort of resistance in that regard. but once in a while, we got western high plains caliber turn-arounds by synoptics.  

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