Model Mayhem!

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Seems to be heading towards a shorter duration warm up

SW energy hung back a little more this run...so you see everything progress faster on the northern stream. That helps limit the warm sector. That is a trend that hopefully sticks for several more runs and it would produce a much better result for winter enthusiasts...particularly in the CAD prone areas.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

18 Z GFS is quite the front ender and for ski country barely warm front then dry slot then arctic frontal cover up

Yup, that would be 3-5" out here before any rain.  

[CoastalWx]

Better for the CAD regions. Hopefully it continues.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Better for the CAD regions. Hopefully it continues.

yea shows up well peeps like Chris Happy Valley never get above 35 ish, with that look those peeps hang on to their cover

[Ginx snewx]

Thu night and Fri...
Dangerously cold conditions Thu night into Fri morning as ambient
temperatures will drop below 0F for much of the NW while other
ares should see the single digits thanks to H85 temps near -25C
and H92 temps between -20C and -23C. While this alone is nearly 3
std deviations below normal and deeply cold for December,, very
deep mixing with low tropopause combined with strong pres rises
nearly 7mb/3hr will support very strong winds particularly during
the overnight hours (more on this risk below). The combination
should allow for wind chills falling to between -15F and -25F
based on expected sustained winds, which will linger into Fri
morning. Looking at gust potential, instantaneous wind chills could
be as much as 10F to 20F colder still. Not enough warming Fri to
keep highs in the low-mid teens with continued bitter wind chills
near or below 0F through the afternoon.

Regarding the dynamic-tropopause nearing 650mb (so close you
could almost touch it), with BL mixing Thu night reaching nearly
H7 and strong pres rises, will also note the risk for very strong
to potentially damaging wind gusts for a period late Thu night
into Fri morning. Bufkit profiles suggest mixing could tap 50-60
kt LLJ at H7 which should efficiently mix to the sfc. Sustained
winds of 30-40 mph with gusts as high as 60+ at times are entirely
possible (just exacerbating and already dangerously cold period).
Wind advisories are likely going to be needed with a moderate risk
for High Wind Warnings. These winds will subside some through the
day Fri, but remain strong enough that loose items could be at
risk for blowing around.

As if this weren`t enough the strong mixing and modest moisture
near the top of BL through this strong cold advection periods
suggests a risk for snow showers and squalls linked to the
moisture from Great Lakes streamers. Tail and of the BTV WRF
squall parameter shows a corridor of high values into S New
England. This could promote blustery winds with any squalls and
possible rapid visibility reductions and quick snow accums Thu and
through much of Fri until the upper lvl pattern shift begins by
late Fri the risk will be highest on Thu though as this is when
winds have the strongest W component, but felt it was worth
mentioning here as the risk lingers Thu and and Fri somewhat as
well.

Fri night into Sat...
Rapid shift in pattern suggests inside runner with strong links
to higher moisture (PWATS increase through the period to nearly
1.00 inches by Sat evening). Therefore, noting good overrunning
signal late Fri night into Sat morning ahead of the inside running
low pres which will pass W of the region Sat evening. Very cold
leading airmass (H92 temps remain below -10C with H85 temps below
-12C by 12Z Sat morning), will lead to a lowered (vertically) snow
growth regime, allowing for decent omega within. This, combined
with the cold temps should lead to very high SLRs. All this is a
long winded way of stating that from late Sat night into early
afternoon, an area of overrunning moderate to heavy snowfall is
likely before the warming is able to force a change to rain (more
on this later), colloquially known as a front-end-thump.
Already noting ensemble probabilities between 50-70 percent for
3-6 inches across the interior, but this will still need to be
refined as we approach

[powderfreak]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Better for the CAD regions. Hopefully it continues.

Yeah that was a fine solution... has a max temp here of 33F at MVL for the entire event.  Sleet and freezing rain after a couple inches of snow.

You can see the evolution barely gets NNE into the low to mid-30s before the bottom drops out again.  Further NW you are the less residence time the warmth has it seems on these progs.

18z Saturday its still in the teens up here while above freezing has hit the Pike.

Takes until Saturday night and early Sunday morning to get to 33F.

 

Then should be fun tracking the return of the arctic chill...quick drop back into the lower 20s by early Sunday afternoon.  I'm thinking we can hold the snowpack through this one with no problem right now.  Be interesting to see what happens after that though.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Even in SNE that's manageable. Much more GGEM like.Hopefully start of  trend the other way. Maybe the Euro was over amped as it loves to do

[dryslot]

47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

SW energy hung back a little more this run...so you see everything progress faster on the northern stream. That helps limit the warm sector. That is a trend that hopefully sticks for several more runs and it would produce a much better result for winter enthusiasts...particularly in the CAD prone areas.

Something to keep an eye on over the next day or two, Not impossible for this to trend more favorable in this pattern as we saw with the Monday system that originally was a cutter.

[weathafella]

Is anyone else dreading the oncoming cold?  I don't enjoy being out for an hour in way below 0 WC.

[dryslot]

I can't wait for it

[HoarfrostHubb]

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Is anyone else dreading the oncoming cold?  I don't enjoy being out for an hour in way below 0 WC.

I don't mind "fake" cold.  It's bitter cold with high winds that I dread

Ginx, where did you get that descriptive forecast?

[weathafella]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I can't wait for it

Well you have a dog in the show-freezing the waterways.   In the end I'll marvel at it but be generally annoyed at having to walk the dog for an hour either pre dawn or post sunset.

[dryslot]

Well you have a dog in the show-freezing the waterways.   In the end I'll marvel at it but be generally annoyed at having to walk the dog for an hour either pre dawn or post sunset.

This is true about getting the waterways frozen , But I won't be out walking a dog in it either so I don't envy you for that.

[ROOSTA]

Probably an Arctic front WINDEX event. Release the hounds...nice roller-coaster ride incoming.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

yea shows up well peeps like Chris Happy Valley never get above 35 ish, with that look those peeps hang on to their cover

We know the drill,  a 10 mile wide swath from Brattleboro to Greenfield sits at 34F while many go into the 40's. or higher. 

I think it was Feb 2013 I remember leaving Greenfield in freezing rain heading to N Adams watching the temp go up a 2 degrees or more every 5 miles.  N Adams was in the 50's but we came back to full snowpack and 35F at home.  

 Those CAD set ups here  are one of the only times when I don't regret having more elevation.

 

[Ginx snewx]

31 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I don't mind "fake" cold.  It's bitter cold with high winds that I dread

Ginx, where did you get that descriptive forecast?

BOX AFD

[HIPPYVALLEY]

55 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Is anyone else dreading the oncoming cold?  I don't enjoy being out for an hour in way below 0 WC.

I don't mind a good radiating below zero morning but you can keep the wind. Misery. I guess as dog owners we have no escape from it.  Down parka ftw. 

[dmillz25]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Is anyone else dreading the oncoming cold?  I don't enjoy being out for an hour in way below 0 WC.

Me. I work construction this **** is gonna hurt

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Me. I work construction this **** is gonna hurt

That's brutal!  

[Damage In Tolland]

31 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

We know the drill,  a 10 mile wide swath from Brattleboro to Greenfield sits at 34F while many go into the 40's. or higher. 

I think it was Feb 2013 I remember leaving Greenfield in freezing rain heading to N Adams watching the temp go up a 2 degrees or more every 5 miles.  N Adams was in the 50's but we came back to full snowpack and 35F at home.  

 Those CAD set ups here  are one of the only times when I don't regret having more elevation.

 

And Dendrite rots at 31.7

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Me. I work construction this **** is gonna hurt

Been there. Worked the entire month of Dec 89 on the Thames in New London .  Wind and cold the entire month. You adapt though.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Been there. Worked the entire month of Dec 89 on the Thames in New London .  Wind and cold the entire month. You adapt though.

Here too, Worked putting up a 250,000 sq ft steel building winter of 1978, Know all about working outside in extreme conditions, No thanks anymore

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Here too, Worked putting up a 250,000 sq ft steel building winter of 1978, Know all about working outside in extreme conditions, No thanks anymore

I still have to go up on roofs and outside to evaluate down machinery or escort contractors but my sustained outside working days are behind me. I remember those days standing over a 55 gallon drum of burning wood all too well .  It is only the wind that's sucks, even -10 ain't bad without wind.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I still have to go up on roofs and outside to evaluate down machinery or escort contractors but my sustained outside working days are behind me. I remember those days standing over a 55 gallon drum of burning wood all too well .  It is only the wind that's sucks, even -10 ain't bad without wind.

Some days it was not worth going into work as it took most of the day just to get the equipment up and running

[dmillz25]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Been there. Worked the entire month of Dec 89 on the Thames in New London .  Wind and cold the entire month. You adapt though.

Yeah it'll be my first time experiencing it I do construction plumbing so I know those pipes are going to stick to my gloves and the cold seems to feel worse in the building 

[Modfan]

25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I still have to go up on roofs and outside to evaluate down machinery or escort contractors but my sustained outside working days are behind me. I remember those days standing over a 55 gallon drum of burning wood all too well .  It is only the wind that's sucks, even -10 ain't bad without wind.

Nothing like being outside at 4am at 5 degrees repairing electronic equipment, hence my move to SFL. 

[Sugarloaf1989]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

We know the drill,  a 10 mile wide swath from Brattleboro to Greenfield sits at 34F while many go into the 40's. or higher. 

I think it was Feb 2013 I remember leaving Greenfield in freezing rain heading to N Adams watching the temp go up a 2 degrees or more every 5 miles.  N Adams was in the 50's but we came back to full snowpack and 35F at home.  

 Those CAD set ups here  are one of the only times when I don't regret having more elevation.

 

That's how Enfield can be. We spent most of monday in the 30's after the rain stopped. We still have snow cover while areas to the south have none.

[Damage In Tolland]

30 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

That's how Enfield can be. We spent most of monday in the 30's after the rain stopped. We still have snow cover while areas to the south have none.

37.6 was my high 

[moneypitmike]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

Is anyone else dreading the oncoming cold?  I don't enjoy being out for an hour in way below 0 WC.

Bring it on.

Hopefully, I can have 7-10" of snow on the ground before the rain Saturday night.   I might be delusional, but I think my snow will weather the rain and mild-up.

[CT Valley Snowman]

47 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

That's how Enfield can be. We spent most of monday in the 30's after the rain stopped. We still have snow cover while areas to the south have none.

Monday wasn't a great example, we actually had downloading winds. It's more on the screaming S'easters that Kevin will be losing pack faster than his hair while we rot in the 30s.  Even though it is good here, its still the valley north of Northampton up into Franklin County Mass that is really exceptional at CAD and maintaining pack as far as SNE is concerned .