Model Mayhem!

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm still skeptical but there might be just enough room to sneak something in.

But holy sh** at the cold after that. -34C at 850 into N ME by 150-156. That would annihilate some records. 

Yea, storminess is dubious, but looks damn cold.....that is not.

[Hazey]

Euro trying to bring back Dec 14-15 from the dead. Big changes this run. Hits S and SE areas prob with 2-3" and all of SNE with at least an inch. Not far from something bigger. 

That storm rips a hole in the atmosphere east of YYT. 947mb damn....

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like it would be more of a Thursday morning deal then Wednesday....which would wreck havoc with my classes...supposed to present that day.

[Hazey]

Too bad that storm wouldn't stick around. Would make a great 50/50 low. We'd be frigid for days as it channeled in arctic air.

[weathafella]

Pretty solid signal for torchy period d8-10 with cutter imbedded.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Hazey said:

That storm rips a hole in the atmosphere east of YYT. 947mb damn....

Down to 934mb eventually...looks like Nick would have wintertime Hugo to contend with.

PV phases in.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Pretty solid signal for torchy period d8-10 with cutter imbedded.

Yea....that bomb is an Archembault event.......easts up the PV and rips into the NAO domain....the e US is one giant se ridge.

Moral of the story is that we will find a way to avoid a white Christmas..

[OSUmetstud]

Thursday damn. 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Down to 934mb eventually...looks like Nick would have wintertime Hugo to contend with.

PV phases in.

A nice 18" quick hitter.  It's not exactly how you would run an epic snowstorm here, there's no big high to the north.  

[Hazey]

Down to 934mb eventually...looks like Nick would have wintertime Hugo to contend with.

PV phases in.

Triple phaser? Either way that would be an impressive storm even for that latitude if it occurred as depicted.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Hazey said:

Triple phaser? Either way that would be an impressive storm even for that latitude if it occurred as depicted.

Looks like a double phase to to me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Hopefully the torch period passes by Christmas...

[Hazey]

Tickets to St. John's if it plays out like that. You guys would get a discount with our crappy dollar..lol.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea....that bomb is an Archembault event.......easts up the PV and rips into the NAO domain....the e US is one giant se ridge.

Moral of the story is that we will find away to avoid a white Christmas..

Fwiw (not much in this lead time) that's a strong front ender before a 24 hour torch before we re-freeze.   Also, that Thursday event is way more robust this run.  That will need to be watched to see if it's going to pull a 1/25/15.   Remember right before that event we had a similar situation that we're going to see Monday as big time cold was lurking and about to envelop.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Fwiw (not much in this lead time) that's a strong front ender before a 24 hour torch before we re-freeze.   Also, that Thursday event is way more robust this run.  That will need to be watched to see if it's going to pull a 1/25/15.   Remember right before that event we had a similar situation that we're going to see Monday as big time cold was lurking and about to envelop.

Yea, bears watching....but I'm highly skeptical.

Night, boys-

[ice1972]

I'm tired of these "strong signals".....ok?

[WinterWolf]

44 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Fwiw (not much in this lead time) that's a strong front ender before a 24 hour torch before we re-freeze.   Also, that Thursday event is way more robust this run.  That will need to be watched to see if it's going to pull a 1/25/15.   Remember right before that event we had a similar situation that we're going to see Monday as big time cold was lurking and about to envelop.

Yup, and the Storm that would become the blizzard, was gone on the models until that Friday nights Euro 0z run(which as we know is actually Saturday's 0z run), and then BANG there it was-back from the dead and in our faces!!  As I read the posts on the forum at 1:30 am that morning, it was snowing and 32 degrees...we picked up about 4 inches from that wet snow event on that Saturday, January 24th I believe it was,  2015. The blizzard came in that Monday.  

.  

[MJO812]

If only the Euro and Eps control snow maps would verify

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Man a double phased bomb in New Foundland and Greenland and would only become an 18" quick hitting storm for Nick.  Man that is rough, if we had a 934mb bomb at the benchmark Nantucket would turn to heavy rain while Chatham was basking in blizzard conditions and winds ripping at around 100mph gusts.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm still skeptical but there might be just enough room to sneak something in.

But holy sh** at the cold after that. -34C at 850 into N ME by 150-156. That would annihilate some records. 

yeah, it's something to marvel but, it's also part and parcel in what's absolutely killing us this early winter.

can't really sustain 590 dm heights over the breadth of old Mexico/Gulf/Florida and the Bahamas ... if merely wobbling the mass of it back and forth while each successive continental event sort of 'bounces' off the top; meanwhile, the Earth produces bottom bounce type cold in southern Canada.

the resulting flow is ...as i have been stressing enough to annoy no doubt .. a negative storm interference pattern. in fact, is specifically and particularly, negatively effects storms genesis/potential its self.  we'll get all the temperature variance between extremes that people were taught to associate with storminess; however, imparted by comparatively weaker fan-fair in that regard until such time as it all relaxes.

and to the astute reader, we don't need/want/mean (as storm enthusiasts) things to go weak, either. you need gradient - duh!  you just can't have the 'rest state' of the atmosphere at 90 kts of geostrophic wind velocity. and all that screaming wind is because we have a hemispheric dilemma of summer time heights refusing to acquiesce to seasonal change butting up against anomalous early season cold, when looking south to north in the broader scope. 

and it is counter-intuitive to the average perusal of the forum.  we were always taught ... warm vs cold = storm, right ?  however, that doesn't unfortunately qualify 'too much warm vs too much cold'   until the 'too much' gets removed from that equation, folks should expect shredded hand wringing butt-bang waste of time systems where we have to keep saying, 'look on the upside,' to ferret out a reason to smile. 

and btw, it's not just effecting us over middle n/a... if we look out across the entire expanse of the Pacific ocean we can see these flat ... pancaked 588 ridge blobs that have enormously cold troughs moving over top at mid and upper latitudes.  if the mean of all relaxes ...say, 15 dm everywhere, we can make due with large storms in sufficient enough gradient.  

so, why is all that happening?  i dunno... but i've never seen a late autumn early winter do this on a hemispheric scale.  i'll say that much -

 

[CoastalWx]

GFS man cold incoming later this week. I would love a little snow OTG to maximize it.

[CoastalWx]

GFS would obliterate some records Friday morning.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, it's something to marvel but, it's also part and parcel in what's absolutely killing us this early winter.

can't really sustain 590 dm heights over the breadth of old Mexico/Gulf/Florida and the Bahamas ... if merely wobbling the mass of it back and forth while each successive continental event sort of 'bounces' off the top; meanwhile, the Earth produces bottom bounce type cold in southern Canada.

the resulting flow is ...as i have been stressing enough to annoy no doubt .. a negative storm interference pattern. in fact, is specifically and particularly, negatively effects storms genesis/potential its self.  we'll get all the temperature variance between extremes that people were taught to associate with storminess; however, imparted by comparatively weaker fan-fair in that regard until such time as it all relaxes.

and to the astute reader, we don't need/want/mean (as storm enthusiasts) things to go weak, either. you need gradient - duh!  you just can't have the 'rest state' of the atmosphere at 90 kts of geostrophic wind velocity. and all that screaming wind is because we have a hemispheric dilemma of summer time heights refusing to acquiesce to seasonal change butting up against anomalous early season cold, when looking south to north in the broader scope. 

and it is counter-intuitive to the average perusal of the forum.  we were always taught ... warm vs cold = storm, right ?  however, that doesn't unfortunately qualify 'too much warm vs too much cold'   until the 'too much' gets removed from that equation, folks should expect shredded hand wringing butt-bang waste of time systems where we have to keep saying, 'look on the upside,' to ferret out a reason to smile. 

and btw, it's not just effecting us over middle n/a... if we look out across the entire expanse of the Pacific ocean we can see these flat ... pancaked 588 ridge blobs that have enormously cold troughs moving over top at mid and upper latitudes.  if the mean of all relaxes ...say, 15 dm everywhere, we can make due with large storms in sufficient enough gradient.  

so, why is all that happening?  i dunno... but i've never seen a late autumn early winter do this on a hemispheric scale.  i'll say that much -

 

You think it has something to do with the epic el nino this past year?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, it's something to marvel but, it's also part and parcel in what's absolutely killing us this early winter.

can't really sustain 590 dm heights over the breadth of old Mexico/Gulf/Florida and the Bahamas ... if merely wobbling the mass of it back and forth while each successive continental event sort of 'bounces' off the top; meanwhile, the Earth produces bottom bounce type cold in southern Canada.

the resulting flow is ...as i have been stressing enough to annoy no doubt .. a negative storm interference pattern. in fact, is specifically and particularly, negatively effects storms genesis/potential its self.  we'll get all the temperature variance between extremes that people were taught to associate with storminess; however, imparted by comparatively weaker fan-fair in that regard until such time as it all relaxes.

and to the astute reader, we don't need/want/mean (as storm enthusiasts) things to go weak, either. you need gradient - duh!  you just can't have the 'rest state' of the atmosphere at 90 kts of geostrophic wind velocity. and all that screaming wind is because we have a hemispheric dilemma of summer time heights refusing to acquiesce to seasonal change butting up against anomalous early season cold, when looking south to north in the broader scope. 

and it is counter-intuitive to the average perusal of the forum.  we were always taught ... warm vs cold = storm, right ?  however, that doesn't unfortunately qualify 'too much warm vs too much cold'   until the 'too much' gets removed from that equation, folks should expect shredded hand wringing butt-bang waste of time systems where we have to keep saying, 'look on the upside,' to ferret out a reason to smile. 

and btw, it's not just effecting us over middle n/a... if we look out across the entire expanse of the Pacific ocean we can see these flat ... pancaked 588 ridge blobs that have enormously cold troughs moving over top at mid and upper latitudes.  if the mean of all relaxes ...say, 15 dm everywhere, we can make due with large storms in sufficient enough gradient.  

so, why is all that happening?  i dunno... but i've never seen a late autumn early winter do this on a hemispheric scale.  i'll say that much -

 

interesting. last winter featured shredded or disjointed waves so I wonder if super nino still having an affect, regardless of what the current index numbers show. ?

[OSUmetstud]

Nowhere to go but downhill from here lol.  

[weathafella]

Nice front ender next Saturday on the euro.  At least today the trend is bettter.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You think it has something to do with the epic el nino this past year?

 

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

interesting. last winter featured shredded or disjointed waves so I wonder if super nino still having an affect, regardless of what the current index numbers show. ?

JMHO, but I think this is a Nina signal. We are basically neutral or slightly + NAO, A Bering Sea and EPO signal with troughing in the west. As far as the tropics go, we have general uplift or vertical motion out in the maritime continent of Indonesia which is another Nina signal. That teleconnection pattern I mentioned is usually one that is fast flow and therefore tough to get large QPF events. I think one of the better ways to get a larger QPF event is to have the pattern support a stalled front offshore with a long duration overrunning event. Sometimes you can phase a s/w from the PV with another coming off the Pacific, but that can take a little more work as far as timing goes. 

[CoastalWx]

After the not gonna happens James mid week event, hopefully next weekend trends to a cold solution. Seems like it could be. 

[CoastalWx]

Darn cold euro run. 

 

Man the models have been so volatile lately. These changes in the 6-10 day are pretty nuts...with every run. 

[Googlymoogly]

I feel the grinch starting to smirk. There's gotta be some science behind that.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

7 minutes ago, Googlymoogly said:

I feel the grinch starting to smirk. There's gotta be some science behind that.

Well, if you're talking just SNE then December climo doesn't really favor 'locked in' winter conditions, it's still often a transition month. I think much of SNE only has like 40-50% chances of a white Christmas depending upon where exactly you are.