WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: There's a storm at 216-228 hours on the gfs that torches New England. Thanks for clarifying...not to worried about that at this point. James is tough to follow at times..but I guess he was talking about the cape back in that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 11 hours ago, OSUmetstud said: April 1-2 2001 wasn't a big wind event...just a long duration 2 ft snow event over 3 days. This would be more similar to the event that sunk the Ocean Ranger Oil Rig on the evening of Feb 14th, 1987 and caused a major blizzard in the city, but had some mixing during. I vaguely recall an article from Environment Canada about that event that included sustained 90 kph winds with gusts way above 100. Maybe that was on the west part of the island, which got little snow? Also, that St. John's had something like 25 mm RA followed by 47 cm snow. More clearly I recall that we had been forecast for 12"+ from a storm that was supposed to be stronger than the one that dumped 19" on March 30-31 and boosted my snowpack to 48" - track shifted east and hammered Nfld while we got nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Nice event on the GFS for Dec 14-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Yeah, BM track to east of Nova scotia on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Yeah, BM track to east of Nova scotia on the 12z GFSMe likey. It's been trending south a little each run. 1004 to 986 in 12 ain't too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 7 minutes ago, Hazey said: Me likey. It's been trending south a little each run. 1004 to 986 in 12 ain't too shabby. Good for your area, Not so much here, We need it tracking into the GOM, But that would be a rainer for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Hazey which storm is that for? The Wednesday storm next week? Also the 00z GFS run showed a snowstorm on Christmas Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Hazey which storm is that for? The Wednesday storm next week? Also the 00z GFS run showed a snowstorm on Christmas Day.Dec 15th system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Good for your area, Not so much here, We need it tracking into the GOM, But that would be a rainer for you.Yeah our locations it's challenging to jack at both however this first storm if the secondary can get going soon enough and glide through the gulf of Maine just se of Yarmouth, it might do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 17 minutes ago, Hazey said: Yeah our locations it's challenging to jack at both however this first storm if the secondary can get going soon enough and glide through the gulf of Maine just se of Yarmouth, it might do it. The first one yes, As its moving NNE and off the coast to your area, Its the coastal ones that move along the eastern seaboard, If they take a more NNE track from the BM, Then its more favorable here then a NE or ENE from 40/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Ukie looks pretty flat with the Dec 14 wave...hard to say if decent snows get into SNE with those maps. But either way, def more south than the consensus right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Monday's storm doesn't really interest me all that much. More of the appetizer variety. I was slightly intrigued by the Wednesday night and Thursday system and the GFS has added to that intrigue. Will be something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 54 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Hazey which storm is that for? The Wednesday storm next week? Also the 00z GFS run showed a snowstorm on Christmas Day. Really James...Christmas day is 16 days from now...of course it shows a snowstorm it's the 384hr GFS. C'mon man, to even say that at this lead time is almost ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Euro has no storm mid week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Monday's storm doesn't really interest me all that much. More of the appetizer variety. I was slightly intrigued by the Wednesday night and Thursday system and the GFS has added to that intrigue. Will be something to watch Reminds me of Dec 2013. First storm got lots of hype, wound up being snow-to-mix at the coast and didn't amount to much (although more inland). Second store flew under the radar, then dropped half a foot of cold powder on BOS (and royally screwed up rush hour; IIRC Route 2 was closed for several hours as people couldn't get started after stopping for the light on the hill up to Tracey's Corner). Of course, there was a 60˚ torch three or four days later, so maybe we don't want to replicate that too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro has no storm mid week It's not even close either...kind of weird since all the other guidance has something. It will be interesting to see if this is a casw where the Euro is sniffing that out. It's not that far out either...about 120-132 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 It's not even close either...kind of weird since all the other guidance has something. It will be interesting to see if this is a casw where the Euro is sniffing that out. It's not that far out either...about 120-132 hours.It's there it's just that this run is for Nick. Nice YYT shellacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's not even close either...kind of weird since all the other guidance has something. It will be interesting to see if this is a casw where the Euro is sniffing that out. It's not that far out either...about 120-132 hours. Monster storm Dec 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 55 minutes ago, Hazey said: It's there it's just that this run is for Nick. Nice YYT shellacking. I didn't realize how far out he was until I just looked at a map....dudes practically in Reykjavik..jesus. So yea, i could see how not close for us is a monster for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: It's not even close either...kind of weird since all the other guidance has something. It will be interesting to see if this is a casw where the Euro is sniffing that out. It's not that far out either...about 120-132 hours. What does the EPS show for midweek storm? And is the gfs ensembles as bullish as the Op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 minutes ago, leesun said: What does the EPS show for midweek storm? And is the gfs ensembles as bullish as the Op? Not much of anything for mid-week on EPS...GEFS def show it. The ensembles are essentially just following the OP more or less. Just a bit more muted look since it is a mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I didn't realize how far out he was until I just looked at a map....dudes practically in Reykjavik..jesus. So yea, i could see how not close for us is a monster for him.He can see Reykjavik from his place I bet...lol. Cape Race is just down the road. The most eastern point of North America. They collect all the storms we whiff on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not much of anything for mid-week on EPS...GEFS def show it. The ensembles are essentially just following the OP more or less. Just a bit more muted look since it is a mean. -25 850 on a mean in NNE day 7, serious cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Euro Ens have a Miller B emerging off the Delmarva on the 18th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 couple days back folks were musing about a 'model war' of sorts... i'd say if we closed the book right this moment, and called the system as it looks now? probably be a no-win tie really. i can see success and failure traits on both sides when being "fair" about expectations and relative source-bias. the euro had a stemwound monster in mn back on d10 but when doesn't it? then if it flip flopped all over the place for three days. then the gfs was had like 2 or 3 runs back then that gave 30" of worcester. heh. right. then, 12 cycles in a row with a buffalo low and a triple point under deal. now that we're coming into 72-84 hours, there's definitely going to be SOMEthing happening monday morning... we still got some ironing of details to mull over but this type of flow regime is going to require that anyway. so all told, they're about tied i think. we'll see how it all lands after - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro Ens have a Miller B emerging off the Delmarva on the 18th There is bagginess off the coast w/ a nice HP to the N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 It wouldn't be winter in Amwxland if Tip wasn't posting in the wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: There is bagginess off the coast w/ a nice HP to the N. You need to look at the detailed maps , good depiction and 6 hr increments of 850 and qpf indicate a Delmarva to benchmark track as a mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Nothing like an ensembles torch to end the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nothing like an ensembles torch to end the run. But the overall look suggests we have some more fun soon after I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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