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Model Mayhem!


SR Airglow

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya that almost never happens like that...I would bet against anything like that duration.   99.9% of the time it doesn't precipitate continuously like that...even lightly, there is always a lull; and the lull is usually alot longer than you think.  

exactly, only places it really can happen is eastern ocean effect zones who go from ocean effect to synoptic and then the bombing stalled out low just rots bands of snow in those same zones during/after occlusion

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24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Kevin loves hyperbole, but he's probably not far off when he says 20" for S Weymouth that run...that is literally a perfect look for them between 114-132...like a full day of perfect OES conditions with the inverted trough enhancing everything.

 

Oh well...enjoy this run because it's only downhill from here.

i don't know if you caught my post earlier but doesn't that hearken to late Dec 1993 there ? 

does to me anywho -

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

i don't know if you caught my post earlier but doesn't that hearken to late Dec 1993 there ? 

does to me anywho -

Are you referring to the 6 hour low-thickness snow bomb on Dec 29-30, 1993? That kind of developed on an arctic shortwave....I remember it really got cold behind it. It has the same classic high pressure position just N of Maine but the shortwave to me is different...not a classic overrunning, but more pure coastal cyclogenesis (albeit cold thicknesses...not the more moderate ones we are used to in a typical coastal)

 

 

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heh .. i offered to fire off a thread for this thing three days ago but feared bundom and refrained... 

i think at d4 it's probably okay - sh!t i've started 'general awareness' sort of thematic threads for teleconnector suggestions that were 10 days out... 

this is a unique sort of deal though. we're still dealing with a screaming fast pattern. the only reason why this thing take 24 or 30 hours to complete is pretty stupid lucky really ... in that it's headlong going the longest possible spatial course it can to complete traversing the ov-ne regions.  plus the leading  gentle upglide that could start it off way ahead also prolongs.  anyway, this is not really obviously tied to any tele signals

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh .. i offered to fire off a thread for this thing three days ago but feared bundom and refrained... 

i think at d4 it's probably okay - sh!t i've started 'general awareness' sort of thematic threads for teleconnector suggestions that were 10 days out... 

this is a unique sort of deal though. we're still dealing with a screaming fast pattern. the only reason why this thing take 24 or 30 hours to complete is pretty stupid lucky really ... in that it's headlong going the longest possible spatial course it can to complete traversing the ov-ne regions.  plus the leading  gentle upglide that could start it off way ahead also prolongs.  anyway, this is not really obviously tied to any tele signals

Yeah you mentioned it...anyways, I started one finally...have at it in here:

 

 

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Are you referring to the 6 hour low-thickness snow bomb on Dec 29-30, 1993? That kind of developed on an arctic shortwave....I remember it really got cold behind it. It has the same classic high pressure position just N of Maine but the shortwave to me is different...not a classic overrunning, but more pure coastal cyclogenesis (albeit cold thicknesses...not the more moderate ones we are used to in a typical coastal)

 

 

oh, i should have been clear - i mean specifically as it related to the oes aspect.. 

yeah not sure about the other junk -

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

oh, i should have been clear - i mean specifically as it related to the oes aspect.. 

yeah not sure about the other junk -

I wonder if you are thinking of the early Jan 1994 system maybe a week later...there was an epic OES contribution on that storm.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I wonder if you are thinking of the early Jan 1994 system maybe a week later...there was an epic OES contribution on that storm.

YES! that's the one damn.. i was just thinking internally, 'maybe it was also the next one..' heh

that winter was a real pepper job as i recall it.  people think of 1995-1996 as a nickle and dimer but the 1993-1994 winter definitely fits that characteristic just as well in my memory.  i don't thing seasonal totals bear that out, the oes contamination over eastern zones.  very Boston centric year

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17 minutes ago, HimoorWx said:

And fortunately my new snowblower is being delivered today.  I'm 62 and I decided it was finally time to make it a little easier on myself.

cal driveway 1.jpg

cal driveway 2.jpg

Where did you get it?  I'm thinking of firing my snow guy and doing it myself manually but at 70 it may be unwise.

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

YES! that's the one damn.. i was just thinking internally, 'maybe it was also the next one..' heh

that winter was a real pepper job as i recall it.  people think of 1995-1996 as a nickle and dimer but the 1993-1994 winter definitely fits that characteristic just as well in my memory.  i don't thing seasonal totals bear that out, the oes contamination over eastern zones.  very Boston centric year

I wish I could find the paper...I posted it back on eastern many moons ago....but during one of those jan 1994 events, there was an elevated warm layer around 725mb that intruded into the south shore region near Weymouth/Norwell/Marshfield area but the temps not far below that were still frigid cold...like -10C to -12C at 900mb...and the flow in the BL was from the NE despite probably ripping southwest above 850mb....anyways, what happened for a few short hours was that the old NZW (Weymouth naval air station) was reporting the rare "heavy snow with sleet" ob (typically any snow mixed with sleet raises vis well above a quarter mile)...the sleet was all synoptic, but they were getting heavy snow from the dendrite production below the elevated warm layer on OES contribution. The paper goes into the mechanics well, but it's fascinating. Synoptic sleet, but then low level flow from the NE off the water with temps around -10 to -12C in the BL producing mesoscale heavy ocean effect snow.

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Where did you get it?  I'm thinking of firing my snow guy and doing it myself manually but at 70 it may be unwise.

I ordered a Toro corded electric from Home Depot.  15 amp, 18 inches wide, will do about 10 inches of depth at a time.  It will mean multiple passes when we get the big ones, but it is compact and lightweight.  Driveway is long, but not that wide, so I'm hoping this will do the trick.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I wish I could find the paper...I posted it back on eastern many moons ago....but during one of those jan 1994 events, there was an elevated warm layer around 725mb that intruded into the south shore region near Weymouth/Norwell/Marshfield area but the temps not far below that were still frigid cold...like -10C to -12C at 900mb...and the flow in the BL was from the NE despite probably ripping southwest above 850mb....anyways, what happened for a few short hours was that the old NZW (Weymouth naval air station) was reporting the rare "heavy snow with sleet" ob (typically any snow mixed with sleet raises vis well above a quarter mile)...the sleet was all synoptic, but they were getting heavy snow from the dendrite production below the elevated warm layer on OES contribution. The paper goes into the mechanics well, but it's fascinating. Synoptic sleet, but then low level flow from the NE off the water with temps around -10 to -12C in the BL producing mesoscale heavy ocean effect snow.

i remember that .. we talked about that example a couple of times up at UML

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