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Model Mayhem!


SR Airglow

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Anafront!!

 

On Friday at least...tries to scrape eastern areas after the initial event on Thursday night. At any rate, nice to see the cutter has evaporated.

The last few runs have washed out the cutter and moving more towards s fropa with waves moving along it

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

the following has no chance really beyond dumb luck of verifying the way it is here, at 300 hr....but, damn - just a nice Norman Rockwell of model depictions to help with holiday spirit -

 

gfs_namer_312_1000_500_thick.gif

The ensembles don't look too bad with the ridge out west.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice little clipper on the D9 Euro clown range. Pretty wintry run overall. Hopefully one of these threats can materialize into something more substantial. But I wouldn't be disappointed in 2-3 minor events over the next 10 days.

hey can this be the irresponsible giggity giggity thread?  

that 300 hour deal would like correct all deficits of snow in a single storm going back through last winter. 

wait, no what ?  i'm not even sure what the percent/futility was... sometimes those totals bear out better than they seemed -

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice little clipper on the D9 Euro clown range. Pretty wintry run overall. Hopefully one of these threats can materialize into something more substantial. But I wouldn't be disappointed in 2-3 minor events over the next 10 days.

I know someone that would lol.

seems like the cold sort of overwhelmed the pattern and eliminated cutter risk 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The euro cuts off the Bering Sea ridge in a primo spot to spill the cold into Canada and then eventually the US as depicted verbatim. Barrow AK in Borat thongs while the US has widespread cold. 

hahahahaa!   

oh man.  i just saw that over tg on a goof with some of the other adults -

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice little clipper on the D9 Euro clown range. Pretty wintry run overall. Hopefully one of these threats can materialize into something more substantial. But I wouldn't be disappointed in 2-3 minor events over the next 10 days.

I wouldn't either.

A couple of inches before mid month would be gravy.

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25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

WTF is that......still Barrow to me.

No thanks lol

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/12/01/503979353/barrow-alaska-changes-its-name-back-to-its-original-utqiagvik

Helpful pronunciation guide in that article. Passed by just 6 votes. Granted about 700 voted, but still.

We just have to check the daily climate for Utqiagvik and see if they are double digit + anomalies to know the cold air is on the move our way. Looks like Fairbanks has some renaming to do in their products.

And speaking of new names, GOES-R is officially GOES-16. Now we wait to see if it become east or west. 

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/12/01/503979353/barrow-alaska-changes-its-name-back-to-its-original-utqiagvik

Helpful pronunciation guide in that article. Passed by just 6 votes. Granted about 700 voted, but still.

We just have to check the daily climate for Utqiagvik and see if they are double digit + anomalies to know the cold air is on the move our way. Looks like Fairbanks has some renaming to do in their products.

And speaking of new names, GOES-R is officially GOES-16. Now we wait to see if it become east or west. 

I see no problem in self determination

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well ...this 18z is the 5th run and counting of the GFS operational run bringing a wall of light to moderate mix and or snow to our doorstep and then obliterates it into virga as it it passes over head...  Hard to knock consistency - heh. 

also - hate to admit (fearing what the Tolland Massif might run away with it...) but the GFS ensemble individual members kind of have a consensus there for something important over the e in that D9-12 range.   ...probably the difference between .01 and 2% confidence ...just sayn'.   got to start somewhere.  hard to glean anything of a signal out of the CDC's as that agencies been putting up pretty wildly different nightly computations of the teleconnectors, but the CPC on the other hand does have a acme in the PNA around that time.  something i'm keep an eye on...it's not the first time in the last couple of days i thought about that dec 11-14 time frame.  

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