ajisai Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Just now, weathafella said: Ha - figured from the sudden comment number increase! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Seriously, that is a huge weenie solution. Probably 8-10" of baking powder snow topped off with 2-4" of fluff from the inverted trough...and powderfreak can have his 10" of currier and ives fluff from 0.4" of qpf...and he already has a nice base, so everyone's happy. SNE is always quick to give us our fluff, that compresses to nothing, while they pile up the man snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Solid foot for most with Scooter pulling 18-22 in S Weymouth from OES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Man, wish I could lock that. Man snow, then a CJ. Actually a lot of ern areas would get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Solid foot for most with Scooter pulling 18-22 in S Weymouth from OES Sounds good. Can always adjust up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Reminds me tremendously of dec 19,2008 It is amazingly similar...right up with the slow exit of the upper shortwave to give us the weenie snow for 12-24 hours after the main show. The only difference is we actually get a period of weenie snow before the main show for about 6-10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 This needs its own topic now I think, only 4 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, dendrite said: SNE is always quick to give us our fluff, that compresses to nothing, while they pile up the man snow. Why do you think I threw in "and he already has a nice base"? lol I knew he'd be upset if he didn't already have a good qpf base to his snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It is amazingly similar...right up with the slow exit of the upper shortwave to give us the weenie snow for 12-24 hours after the main show. The only difference is we actually get a period of weenie snow before the main show for about 6-10 hours. That Euro is quite a run. Hangs that inverted trof back for about 48 hours over NNE. I'll take the under on that timing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Man, wish I could lock that. Man snow, then a CJ. Actually a lot of ern areas would get it. Kevin loves hyperbole, but he's probably not far off when he says 20" for S Weymouth that run...that is literally a perfect look for them between 114-132...like a full day of perfect OES conditions with the inverted trough enhancing everything. Oh well...enjoy this run because it's only downhill from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That Euro is quite a run. Hangs that inverted trof back for about 48 hours over NNE. I'll take the under on that timing though. The IVT stuff is a crap shoot, I'd rather have the fronto snows, Looks like we would need a tic or two further north with the trough or a better developed secondary which we will see how that evolves over the next few runs, Looks like the focus has changed to more of an over running one wave deal now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Kevin loves hyperbole, but he's probably not far off when he says 20" for S Weymouth that run...that is literally a perfect look for them between 114-132...like a full day of perfect OES conditions with the inverted trough enhancing everything. Oh well...enjoy this run because it's only downhill from here. That's a huge signal for his area there in SWeymouth. I'd think with the WAA we'd see light snow break out Sunday afternoon .. enough lift and high RH over cold dome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Kevin loves hyperbole, but he's probably not far off when he says 20" for S Weymouth that run...that is literally a perfect look for them between 114-132...like a full day of perfect OES conditions with the inverted trough enhancing everything. Oh well...enjoy this run because it's only downhill from here. I know. I'll be happy with my first plowable event hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: The IVT stuff is a crap shoot, I'd rather have the fronto snows, Looks like we would need a tic or two further north with the trough or a better developed secondary which we will see how that evolves over the next few runs, Looks like the focus has changed to more of an over running one wave deal now There's still a good deformation type band over NNE on that run even without the IVT. What we sometimes call "the currier and ives band". It's usually displaced a bit north of the meat of the WAA precip. The 12/19/08 storm had that...they actually had more snow in parts of NNE on that first day than down here until we got the IVT snows the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Euro desperately trying to reel the Thursday snow in from the ocean...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: The IVT stuff is a crap shoot, I'd rather have the fronto snows, Looks like we would need a tic or two further north with the trough or a better developed secondary which we will see how that evolves over the next few runs, Looks like the focus has changed to more of an over running one wave deal now You guys looked great for a mid level fronto stripe. I wouldn't change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Euro desperately trying to reel the Thursday snow in from the ocean...lolThat's a beast from the east. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 This is what happens when you get good high pressure placement and try and run a bunch of WAA into it. Top is 850 mb and bottom is 700 mb. To get a strong banded precip signal you want f-gen (shading, red is high) and deformation (yellow dashed lines). Your bands will tend to set up on the cold side of the deformation axis, within the area of strongest f-gen. I've highlighted those areas in blue ovals. Very strong signal showing up at 700 mb, and it collocates nicely over parts of MA with 850 mb forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Now keep in mind, it will be snowing with the f-gen and WAA to the north, and that whole banded signal itself will lift NE with time. We don't toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 This is the key to this storm trending a bit better on guidance over the past day or so....we mentioned the high pressure, but the reason is because of "split flow" up in Canada...I mentioned that earlier too, but I circled what I'm referring to. You can see below in the circled area where the H5 heights diverge...one set of height lines goes up toward Hudson Bay and the other goes south into the Midwest shortwave trough. The lines then join up again downstream...this is creating convergence downstream and that is why our high pressure is building back to the west...in response to that convergence. If you look at events such as 12/19/08, you see the same pattern up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 hey do you guys ever use analogs in ur office ...not as forecast tools of course, but general references ? just curious.. looks like late Dec 1993 in a few ways to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: This is what happens when you get good high pressure placement and try and run a bunch of WAA into it. Top is 850 mb and bottom is 700 mb. To get a strong banded precip signal you want f-gen (shading, red is high) and deformation (yellow dashed lines). Your bands will tend to set up on the cold side of the deformation axis, within the area of strongest f-gen. I've highlighted those areas in blue ovals. Very strong signal showing up at 700 mb, and it collocates nicely over parts of MA with 850 mb forcing. Good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: This is the key to this storm trending a bit better on guidance over the past day or so....we mentioned the high pressure, but the reason is because of "split flow" up in Canada...I mentioned that earlier too, but I circled what I'm referring to. You can see below in the circled area where the H5 heights diverge...one set of height lines goes up toward Hudson Bay and the other goes south into the Midwest shortwave trough. The lines then join up again downstream...this is creating convergence downstream and that is why our high pressure is building back to the west...in response to that convergence. If you look at events such as 12/19/08, you see the same pattern up north. Another good post. Converging air mid and upper levels leads to srfc HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is the key to this storm trending a bit better on guidance over the past day or so....we mentioned the high pressure, but the reason is because of "split flow" up in Canada...I mentioned that earlier too, but I circled what I'm referring to. You can see below in the circled area where the H5 heights diverge...one set of height lines goes up toward Hudson Bay and the other goes south into the Midwest shortwave trough. The lines then join up again downstream...this is creating convergence downstream and that is why our high pressure is building back to the west...in response to that convergence. If you look at events such as 12/19/08, you see the same pattern up north. christ that set up's 'nough to water your eyes - wow. you know, it's really a progressive low-amplitude REX configuration - something i've noticed with many transcontinental system types they seem to transport their own lead supply of cold that way.. fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: hey do you guys ever use analogs in ur office ...not as forecast tools of course, but general references ? just curious.. looks like late Dec 1993 in a few ways to me... We do. Interesting what CIPS is spitting out for sure. Mean: And Will and Kevin might enjoy this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Methinks December 1970 is stopping for a visit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: We do. Interesting what CIPS is spitting out for sure. Mean: And Will and Kevin might enjoy this: CIPS loves NNE for this system....though it is no surprise it is skimping a bit for SNE given that it is using the GFS solution for its analogs and the GFS is the most amped out of all guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Leon at the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 That rollover ridge is kind of saving our bacon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Leon at the end? After getting kicked to #3 two years ago he deserves some spotlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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