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Model Mayhem!


SR Airglow

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Well still have time left for things to change, but it appears the fast flow is probably aiding perhaps in keeping things less amped. 

Plenty of action out through day 10 on all models...like a different system every other day.  Lots of SWFE type systems on the 6z GFS through day 10.

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Models all have a fairly similar outcome just some latitude differences with the depth of the cold and strength of the shortwave.

First wave is weak and seems to bring overrunning snows to the south and then the second one is coming in stronger and a bit more jacked up.

Looks like everyone measures something early next week area-wide.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Models all have a fairly similar outcome just some latitude differences with the depth of the cold and strength of the shortwave.

First wave is weak and seems to bring overrunning snows to the south and then the second one is coming in stronger and a bit more jacked up.

Looks like everyone measures something early next week area-wide.

 

We'll all get excited for a series of 1-4" events.  We won't see deep snows from all these events, but it will certainly look appealing--and feel a little chilly.

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Euro and GGEM dont even give us much of anything for wave 1. We will have to see if that trends into nothing. GFS still giving a couple inches as well as clown range NAM at 84h. 

 

But yeah, on wave two there is reasonable agreement right now between euro, GFS, and ukmet. GGEM is the amped outlier right now. We shall see how things trend. Next two cycles are pretty big as that will get us inside 4 days. 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

So excited to start shoveling GGEM snow again this winter, lol.

Its real amped into a full blown snowstorm early next week.

cmc_snow_acc_neng_24.png

Ooh, I'll tune up my imaginary plow truck to plow all of the imaginary GGEM snow!  That 12" in central VT is practically right over my house.

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14 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

as i don't get to see individual eps members ... i wasn't commenting to Jerry about 'why' the euro/eps are in whole so much more amped.  his specific question was whether 51 members intrinsically means it's better...

to that, i was saying not necessarily so, and then offering some reasons why (conceptual).

it's also possible that the entire EPS system including the operational band-leader are just f wrong - sometimes that happens too.  but others have dutifully noted that it's still just a bit beyond the euro's wheel house so it'll be interesting see where it goes with that thing. 

i'd like to see a long cumulative score/verification of the recent gfs vs euro.  specifically those later middle range ...not sure we have that much data given to the youthfulness of this recent upgrade... but it seems in me-own mind's eye that the euro's been a tad more erratic in said time frame than the gfs...  could be off my rocker though -

Early December has followed the trends from before the upgrade. Euro still tops, but GFS challenging Ukie and beating CMC.

cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

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9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Shows you the effect of old age....

The 19th gave about 8-10" and the 20th actually put us over a foot. We had the inverted trough stretching back on the 20th in between the two systems. We got like 4" that day. 

 

Anyways, still a long ways to go in this one. The high is trending better so even on a bit of an amped solution I'm still confident we'd see a solid net gainer. But the more strung out idea probably has more meteorological support. 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The 19th gave about 8-10" and the 20th actually put us over a foot. We had the inverted trough stretching back on the 20th in between the two systems. We got like 4" that day. 

 

Anyways, still a long ways to go in this one. The high is trending better so even on a bit of an amped solution I'm still confident we'd see a solid net gainer. But the more strung out idea probably has more meteorological support. 

 

 

Bobby to Steph to here to HFD had 11" -12" as I recall 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The 19th gave about 8-10" and the 20th actually put us over a foot. We had the inverted trough stretching back on the 20th in between the two systems. We got like 4" that day. 

 

Anyways, still a long ways to go in this one. The high is trending better so even on a bit of an amped solution I'm still confident we'd see a solid net gainer. But the more strung out idea probably has more meteorological support. 

 

 

Several days of strung out snows with net accumulation would be nice this time of year. Would love to see four days of 4-6 inch snows over one quick hit of 16-24 inches. Not even pretending that either type event is heading our way, though. Just some December fantasizing

 

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1 minute ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Several days of strung out snows with net accumulation would be nice this time of year. Would love to see four days of 4-6 inch snows over one quick hit of 16-24 inches. Not even pretending that either type event is heading our way, though. Just some December fantasizing

 

:weenie:

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1 minute ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Several days of strung out snows with net accumulation would be nice this time of year. Would love to see four days of 4-6 inch snows over one quick hit of 16-24 inches. Not even pretending that either type event is heading our way, though. Just some December fantasizing

 

Turning back a potential 2 footer for 4 days of moderate?  You are hereby excommunicated from weenie nation!

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