tamarack Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: i don't recall that specifically but sure... plenty of examples of how it seems to grope it's gotee in petty wait to f stuff up. we're kidding of course - February 14 set lots of cold records, including NYC's first subzero low since 1994. I had -22 early on the 15th, and the 16th brought me an inch of rain and upper 40s. One more lovely facet of "winter" 15-16. Well a third of the GEFS are stemwinders too (including a 940 over New Brunswick). The mean is washed out because of timing issues more than anything. There's a lot of energy in that vortex lobe spinning down, and a few of those members clearly latch onto that. lol That would be the "Dawn Awakening" storm? Or White Juan West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Looks like the 18z GFS is going to stick with weak multiple wave scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Just now, Hazey said: Looks like the 18z GFS is going to stick with weak multiple wave scenario. Basically a FROPA with a weak wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Basically a FROPA with a weak waveYeah it couldn't be further from the euro solution. I think it's even flatter than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, Hazey said: Yeah it couldn't be further from the euro solution. I think it's even flatter than the 12z run. Yeah it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, Hazey said: Yeah it couldn't be further from the euro solution. I think it's even flatter than the 12z run. Looks like its delayed but not denied, The follow up one on Tues looks to be amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Looks like its delayed but not denied, The follow up one on Tues looks to be ampedKinda get that feeling that we are not going to dodge a cutter no matter how much we wish otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looks like its delayed but not denied, The follow up one on Tues looks to be amped Hence the timing issues on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 11 minutes ago, Hazey said: Kinda get that feeling that we are not going to dodge a cutter no matter how much we wish otherwise. More of a SWFE then cutter though, Looks like it would be a decent hit but not a lot of qpf with it and BL issues along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Hence the timing issues on the GEFS. Yeah, Its a two wave scenario with the first one coming thru on Monday, And the next one with a piece of that PV it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: That may be an understatement. I count something like 35-40 sub-980 mb lows near New England. Like 75% of members easily. Including a nice 955 mb St. Lawrence runner. Yeah there's a lot of really amped up EPS members and a few amped up GEFS members. It seems like this storm has the ability to amplify with the PV way back to the west. It seems like the pattern becomes much less conducive for stemwinder cutters after Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 23 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yeah, Its a two wave scenario with the first one coming thru on Monday, And the next one with a piece of that PV it looks like We wouldn't complain about that scenario either. Very active pattern...no big storms but snows just above every other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: We wouldn't complain about that scenario either. Very active pattern...no big storms but snows just above every other day. Nickel and dime to climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Thread worthy yet? I'm thinking if Monday still looks like something tomorrow that might be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 as i don't get to see individual eps members ... i wasn't commenting to Jerry about 'why' the euro/eps are in whole so much more amped. his specific question was whether 51 members intrinsically means it's better... to that, i was saying not necessarily so, and then offering some reasons why (conceptual). it's also possible that the entire EPS system including the operational band-leader are just f wrong - sometimes that happens too. but others have dutifully noted that it's still just a bit beyond the euro's wheel house so it'll be interesting see where it goes with that thing. i'd like to see a long cumulative score/verification of the recent gfs vs euro. specifically those later middle range ...not sure we have that much data given to the youthfulness of this recent upgrade... but it seems in me-own mind's eye that the euro's been a tad more erratic in said time frame than the gfs... could be off my rocker though - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Thread worthy yet? I'm thinking if Monday still looks like something tomorrow that might be better I would say tomorrow, We will be inside 5 days by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 22 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah there's a lot of really amped up EPS members and a few amped up GEFS members. It seems like this storm has the ability to amplify with the PV way back to the west. It seems like the pattern becomes much less conducive for stemwinder cutters after Monday. I'd argue it already is... but that's me - ...flow's already too fast for my liking. I mean, we're initializing models today with 9 or 10 isopleths between ord and mia! good luck...it's not modeled to really change as the interim between spv's skirting through central canada leave the same playground in their wake... this 18 z run comes in and yeah, we chuck because it's 18 z and all that meme to do so... but it has the right idea in concept regardless of it's details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 Gfs still have its 18z suppressed bias? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Gfs still have its 18z suppressed bias? Lol Euro still has its amped bias? 18z GEFS is more suppressed than the 12z GEFS in regards to the Sunday- Monday wave. Euro is likely too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 -28C Euro at 850 modeled for 12/16 would challenge the all time 1983 record of -28.4 https://www.weather.gov/media/unr/soo/pw/low50-T850.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 7, 2016 Share Posted December 7, 2016 At least the intro to Christmas doesn't look like the furnace that 12z had. I know it's just optics at this timeframe but it's one good thing out of that run. Not much else to be cheering about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 18z GEFS are all over the place which may give the false illusion of looking flat. Some amped members in there too. But, timing appears to be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 18z GEFS are all over the place which may give the false illusion of looking flat. Some amped members in there too. But, timing appears to be a problem. It gon rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 3 hours ago, dryslot said: Yeah, Its a two wave scenario with the first one coming thru on Monday, And the next one with a piece of that PV it looks like Dec 19-21 2008? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 GFS with the 2 waves now. Initial wave is a weak clipper, 2nd wave a bit more potent with some redevelopment on the coast. Looks mostly frozen for everyone except extreme e/SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 GFS was very weak with the first wave for Sunday, but then brings in a followup wave for Monday. Nice event for SNE/CNE - high end advisory for pike south with low end advisory up to CON or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 GFS would be pretty good for most of SNE... 6" for most from both waves.... close the shades for that Wednesday deal though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 GGEM runs the second low across central NY into southern VT/NH. Advisory level front-end to rain south of that, big hit NNE verbatim. First clipper dies before it reaches us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Euro folds to the gfs Snow event for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Snowy at Gillette for MNF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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