Model Mayhem!

[#NoPoles]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe we cut down his Christmas Tree?

this is the fookin funniest post I've read in a while...perhaps I'm the only one laughing, but this gem is a win!

[Hazey]

Maybe we cut down his Christmas Tree?

Well considering I'm a tax payer and that shrub cost 300 large then I guess you are partially right...lol. Hope it looks good all dressed up.

[CoastalWx]

Euro ensembles look similar to op. Quite the model battle 5 days out.

[Damage In Tolland]

Why wouldn't they? They always follow the op. How many times have we seen this? Euro over amps. ENS follow and then we see both go back the other way. Hope folks aren't falling for it 

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why wouldn't they? They always follow the op. How many times have we seen this? Euro over amps. ENS follow and then we see both go back the other way. Hope folks aren't falling for it 

Falling for what?

Looks good with a foot of snow through Day 7.  That's a front ender followed by sleet and ZR.  Real cold 925mb temps in NNE during the bulk.

[Typhoon Tip]

you know ...if i didn't know any better ... i swear the euro is parameterized with a butt-bang variables - 

it's amuzing how it stuffs a historic cold insert down are throats on D9 and then even hints at rain on D11

[weathafella]

EPS with 30+ for Seattle 

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Falling for what?

Looks good with a foot of snow through Day 7.  That's a front ender followed by sleet and ZR.

There's only one ensemble suite that does that. 

I mean the EPS typically trends with the op, but gives a much more realistic range of expectations. 

[weathafella]

All guidance gives us all snow at least on the front end.  EPS being a mean of 51 members has to be weighed higher vs other guidance don't you think?

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, weathafella said:

All guidance gives us all snow at least on the front end.  EPS being a mean of 51 members has to be weighed higher vs other guidance don't you think?

Damn look at the day 11 -15  

[tamarack]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

you know ...if i didn't know any better ... i swear the euro is parameterized with a butt-bang variables - 

it's amuzing how it stuffs a historic cold insert down are throats on D9 and then even hints at rain on D11

Kind of like this past Feb?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

All guidance gives us all snow at least on the front end.  EPS being a mean of 51 members has to be weighed higher vs other guidance don't you think?

I'm not sure I would do that...given the EPS follows the OP so often. I would def give it some good weight, but it could easily be overdone a bit.

[weathafella]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Damn look at the day 11 -15  

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

There's only one ensemble suite that does that. 

I mean the EPS typically trends with the op, but gives a much more realistic range of expectations. 

Funny how much Kev bashes the GFS and raves about the Euro but bashes the Euro when it doesn't show a GFS solution.  Consider myself befuddled.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

All guidance gives us all snow at least on the front end.  EPS being a mean of 51 members has to be weighed higher vs other guidance don't you think?

not necessarily... 

if 20 of those 51 members (hypothetically) if parameterized with physics (perturbing..) that don't 'mesh' well with this high speed, high gradient pattern, than those 20 members f- it all up for the mean. i know just eyeballing the euro operational looks odd for this type of flow.  most experienced mets and even theoretical thinking doesn't like the slow down torque the field vibe the euro's selling... things should be smeared out a bit more ...pearl lows with isentropic pulses .. frankly, it looked better fitting of the pattern in the 00z run.  

that's why i think 51 this or that is kind of stupid unless it can be proven absolutely necessary to see those variations - which i have trouble believing. almost wonder if that's a marketing gimmick because their obviously a for profit organization.  

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Funny how much Kev bashes the GFS and raves about the Euro but bashes the Euro when it doesn't show a GFS solution.  Consider myself befuddled.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Funny how much Kev bashes the GFS and raves about the Euro but bashes the Euro when it doesn't show a GFS solution.  Consider myself befuddled.

He keeps it interesting. But of course this is more of an ensemble issue. The EPS may follow the op, but the GEFS are just too narrow a range. All the members seem to follow the op. Kind of leads to false confidence. At least with 51 members you can always find some EPS turds in the punch bowl.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

He keeps it interesting. But of course this is more of an ensemble issue. The EPS may follow the op, but the GEFS are just too narrow a range. All the members seem to follow the op. Kind of leads to false confidence. At least with 51 members you can always find some EPS turds in the punch bowl.

And they run at a resolution equal or better than the Op GFS. 

[powderfreak]

 

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

He keeps it interesting. But of course this is more of an ensemble issue. The EPS may follow the op, but the GEFS are just too narrow a range. All the members seem to follow the op. Kind of leads to false confidence. At least with 51 members you can always find some EPS turds in the punch bowl.

Yeah the GEFS seem to follow the OP a lot more than the EPS.  Naturally they both will to an extent but the GEFS seem most prone to copying their OP.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not necessarily... 

if 20 of those 51 members (hypothetically) if parameterized with physics (perturbing..) that don't 'mesh' well with this high speed, high gradient pattern, than those 20 members f- it all up for the mean. i know just eyeballing the euro operational looks odd for this type of flow.  most experienced mets and even theoretical thinking doesn't like the slow down torque the field vibe the euro's selling... things should be smeared out a bit more ...pearl lows with isentropic pulses .. frankly, it looked better fitting of the pattern in the 00z run.  

that's why i think 51 this or that is kind of stupid unless it can be proven absolutely necessary to see those variations - which i have trouble believing. almost wonder if that's a marketing gimmick because their obviously a for profit organization.  

It would be really instructive to get the ensemble median vs mean.   Because the same issue is with all the guidance-a major outlier or 10 can badly misrepresent what 2/3 of the members depict.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Kind of like this past Feb?

i don't recall that specifically but sure... plenty of examples of how it seems to grope it's gotee in petty wait to f stuff up.

we're kidding of course -

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

It would be really instructive to get the ensemble median vs mean.   Because the same issue is with all the guidance-a major outlier or 10 can badly misrepresent what 2/3 of the members depict.

it's a great point ma-man.  

i suppose to be fair tho, the flip side of that argument is that sometimes the 'smeared average' shows which side of the envelope has the most uncertainty and guess what? eheh

that happened in April 1997.  that sucker was modeled like 350 naut miles ESE of NS at one point some 7 days out, but that 'smear' was back west showing that more than just a couple members were thinking 'wait a second'. 

sure enough... 

still, i wonder if 51 members of anything is very practical.  i mean, can you imagine having to study the specific biases of every 51 members to know them well enough to know what crack pipe is being smoked by which per cycle...?  it's just not humanly possible to digest that much intellect before the next cycle... you have to (ironically) be a super computer to consume all that information in such a short period and have it mean anything to you -

[ORH_wxman]

Looking at the 5H spaghetti plot on the euro ensembles, they are probably biased a little less amped than the OP, but there's definitely some jacked up outliers more amped. Overall though, they are still clustered quite a bit closer to the OP than any other model guidance has to that solution, so it's really a model war and not a "physical perturbation" issue.

[OceanStWx]

One thing I notice viewing individual panels is more or less what Will discussed earlier today. If you put the high pressure stronger and in Quebec, you get a better clown map output for SNE. If you shade the high more towards New Brunswick the algorithm struggles to accumulate much in SNE. 

This really shouldn't be surprising to anyone though, because that northern positioning is more favorable to CAD.

[Damage In Tolland]

These past 2 storms were EPS modeled stemwinder screamers into the lakes. How did that work out? Maybe this time they are right , .. but 5 days out a good bet would be for that not to verify . And neither will the GEFS 

[ORH_wxman]

We should also remember this is 4.5-5 days out. Hardly in the Euro "wheelhouse" yet...we really want to get it to that 84-96 hour mark.

[Hazey]

This is the gefs and geps individual ensemble storm tracks for 12z. Looks like a good amount of them favour a coastal/off shore track.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looking at the 5H spaghetti plot on the euro ensembles, they are probably biased a little less amped than the OP, but there's definitely some jacked up outliers more amped. Overall though, they are still clustered quite a bit closer to the OP than any other model guidance has to that solution, so it's really a model war and not a "physical perturbation" issue.

That may be an understatement. I count something like 35-40 sub-980 mb lows near New England. Like 75% of members easily. Including a nice 955 mb St. Lawrence runner.

[Go Kart Mozart]

18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Can you give the one-sentence synopsis for those of us who do not have access?

 

20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Damn look at the day 11 -15  

 

[OceanStWx]

Well a third of the GEFS are stemwinders too (including a 940 over New Brunswick). The mean is washed out because of timing issues more than anything. 

There's a lot of energy in that vortex lobe spinning down, and a few of those members clearly latch onto that.