USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 NAM is showing something decent at the end of the 18z run this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Not enough space between the waves it seems. Maybe we're better off with the gradient just not getting further south than 40N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 GFS is really close with the Friday system producing, I would go with a light to moderate event most probable, 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Large +PNA ridge present this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 First wave Friday into Saturday on the 18zgfs is a whiff. Maybe Nantucket gets a flurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 54 minutes ago, Hazey said: Sorry but the bus ain't going to Stowe this trip. This magic bus ride is for the coast. It's time to share the wealth. Haha yeah its definitely not coming up here. Haven't you had a ton of snow so far this season though? You always post like you are on Cape Cod, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: First wave Friday into Saturday on the 18zgfs is a whiff. Maybe Nantucket gets a flurry Maybe that helps out with wave number two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 40 minutes ago, Hazey said: Agreed. Hey I'm not disputing that the winter(overall) is theirs but I think this weekends system is ours. I never get why winter has to be "someone's"... its a normal winter right now it seems to me. Its snowing in NNE which it should be in a normal winter and now as we head into January the chances increase further south as the seasonal baroclinic zone shifts south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 GFS having major consistency issues in regards to the timing of the shortwave disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I never get why winter has to be "someone's"... its a normal winter right now it seems to me. Its snowing in NNE which it should be in a normal winter and now as we head into January the chances increase further south as the seasonal baroclinic zone shifts south and east. Surprisingly very few people understand this basic point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 This 18z run is colder at the surface down in central SC where there is snow, I don't think this is going to work out either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 This GFS 18z run should be better then the 12z run on the sunday deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: This GFS 18z run should be better then the 12z run on the sunday deal Its going to be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: This GFS 18z run should be better then the 12z run on the sunday deal I don't know if I agree with that given the 108 hour depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Would love to see a system give AL and GA northern portions of the states snowfall and come up all the way up the coastline to give the coastline snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Most certainly better at 132 then 138 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: I don't know if I agree with that given the 108 hour depiction. Well then you disagree then, Its closer to the coast and it snows up here where 12z whiffed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Wow I just looked at the differences between 12z and 18z and it slows down the H5 northern stream shortwave rather tremendously and acts to phase with the pacific jet stream disturbance that dips down into the Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Close but no cigar for most on wave 2. Big improvement from the 12z run though, need to see one more moderate improvement and it would be a snowstorm for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 PNA ridge is better on EPS but the PV retreating NW towards AK as we lose the EPO is worrisome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 It would seem the 18z GFS brings the surface low within 100 miles of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Northern stream s/w held back this run and had a bit more interaction with the s/w coming up from the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I'm torn. I'd rather get a juicy system like that second wave, but I wonder if the chances are relatively low compared to Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: PNA ridge is better on EPS but the PV retreating NW towards AK as we lose the EPO is worrisome This is what my analog composite depicted for Feb after a good January stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Well it won't know for sure until 1.) there is decent model agreement, or 2.) we wait until Wednesday before we declare an event or non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I'm torn. I'd rather get a juicy system like that second wave, but I wonder if the chances are relatively low compared to Friday. I'm not torn. Second wave or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I think i would rather see the first one get out of the way and give the second one more room, But that's just me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I rather see both of them, but beggars can't be choosers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Surprisingly very few people understand this basic point. Everyone wants to label Winter or even certain storms as "someone's." I guess the last few years may have something to do with it but the snow season should be longest the further north you go with better snows early/late season...while further south gets into it more in the heart of the winter in a truly climo speaking sense. I mean it can be everyone's winter, say S.CT rips off two or three 8-12" events in January followed by more in February...while at the same time NNE is getting normal snow or even gets suppressed for a few weeks (which is normal in the heart of winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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