jbenedet Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There is some ensemble support, but I'm not on board right now for much even here. It's early and things can change though. It's early but certainly not too early to draw conclusions for New England. I feel like I've seen this setup too many times to get hooked in again. We're going to need a really strong shortwave across the plains around day 3 to give anyone in the northeast a shot at measurable snow. I'm not seeing any evidence of this on the ensembles. This setup is interesting for the Carolinas up to Delaware imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: It's early but certainly not too early to draw conclusions for New England. I feel like I've seen this setup too many times to get hooked in again. We're going to need a really strong shortwave across the plains around day 3 to give anyone in the northeast a shot at measurable snow. I'm not seeing any evidence of this on the ensembles. This setup is interesting for the Carolinas up to Delaware imo. I thought are chances look better this month? yes /no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 My gut says this is a hit from Boston east to CC(best chances east), NS, and probably YYT. To what degree? I'm not sure but I'm trusting my spidy senses. Been doing good so far this season. Why stop now. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 This is a SNE 3-6" event. It's not a NNE storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 There is a decent s/w and the propensity for a SE ridge. I certainly would not rule out a lgt-mdt event now in eastern areas...but the usual caveats apply. As usual, just hold hopes in check this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Best setup for a eastcoast storm this season in my opinion. Then the window might shatter later and be back to ho hum deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There is a decent s/w and the propensity for a SE ridge. I certainly would not rule out a lgt-mdt event now in eastern areas...but the usual caveats apply. As usual, just hold hopes in check this far out. Yup with the SE ridge there flow is buckled enough for 3-6 from NYC - BOS with 1-3 back to ALB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Quick question....whats the GFS Para? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, db306 said: Quick question....whats the GFS Para? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017010200&fh=12&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup with the SE ridge there flow is buckled enough for 3-6 from NYC - BOS with 1-3 back to ALB Well I would wait to throw amounts out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I had seen that but was wondering the difference between regular GFS and the Para? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, db306 said: Quick question....whats the GFS Para? GFS Parallel, it is another, newer, version of the GFS that is run along side the regular GFS (why it is called parallel). It is essentially a beta version being run with the aim of *possibly* replacing the current GFS. Euro is known to do this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Ahh....gotcha and thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I would wait to pass judgement until Wednesday 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Looking at that setup on EPS longer range..if the PNA does indeed rise and NAO stays slightly negative to neutral like it wants to...that SE ridge should get squashed and that big ridge you see on the EPS will likely get squashed as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Ah I didn't notice the second wave around hr 144--that one is still very much game on. My comments regarding a miss for up here was with respect to the first wave around day 4. I apologize for the confusion. As an aside, I think the first wave missing well to the south is actually a good table setter for the second shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 22 minutes ago, Hazey said: Best setup for a eastcoast storm this season in my opinion. Then the window might shatter later and be back to ho hum deal. 2nd wave had a better chance than the 1st wave. More separation will pump the east coast ridge. With a pna spike, that should help the storm gain latitude. The problem could be the confluence but I don't see that happening. Fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Looking at that setup on EPS longer range..if the PNA does indeed rise and NAO stays slightly negative to neutral like it wants to...that SE ridge should get squashed and that big ridge you see on the EPS will likely get squashed as we get closer I disagree. It's definitely going to be riding the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Ah I didn't notice the second wave around hr 144--that one is still very much game on. My comments regarding a miss for up here was with respect to the first wave around day 4. I apologize for the confusion. As an aside, I think the first wave missing well to the south is actually a good table setter for the second shortwave. Ahh ok. Yeah that second one is what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Ahh ok. Yeah that second one is what I mean. The first wave looks to stay well to our south with some light snow and snow showers for up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I disagree. It's definitely going to be riding the line. Well we rode it in Dec and did ok. Another month in should yield even better results. Certainly nothing there warranting these melts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well we rode it in Dec and did ok. Another month in should yield even better results. Certainly nothing there warranting these melts We have lowering heights in AK so we will fight ridging in the east. I'm hoping it's just a normal relaxation but I'm not sure what happens later in month. Perhaps we have just enough action to keep it interesting. I don't know other than lets just get through the next 5-7 days and see what happens. The good news is that as modeled, it could be serviceable with latitude. Hopefully that means SNE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We have lowering heights in AK so we will fight ridging in the east. I'm hoping it's just a normal relaxation but I'm not sure what happens later in month. Perhaps we have just enough action to keep it interesting. I don't know other than lets just get through the next 5-7 days and see what happens. The good news is that as modeled, it could be serviceable with latitude. Hopefully that means SNE too. Very well put. Excellent synopsis. I just love the way some just assume that the past month worked out decently, that it automatically means the next month will do the same. You can plainly see the brainwash/convincing techniques at work to ease the angst they are feeling. If that 11-15 period keeps looking not so good...the melt will come soon enough from that person...for now they are in the "convincing themselves mode" so to speak..it's comical!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Meanwhile while all you guys are focusing on events further out I'm watching later tomorrow for up here. To my untrained eye the 12Z NAM now has a totally frozen event for NNE. Even more snow than anything. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We have lowering heights in AK so we will fight ridging in the east. I'm hoping it's just a normal relaxation but I'm not sure what happens later in month. Perhaps we have just enough action to keep it interesting. I don't know other than lets just get through the next 5-7 days and see what happens. The good news is that as modeled, it could be serviceable with latitude. Hopefully that means SNE too. ...you see ...that's just it: I don't think the standard mass-field correlations apply very well these days? there's something's strange going on in the deep south. It extends across the expanse of the subtropical Pacific ..through old Mexico and all the way to Africa. It's basically an unusually tall heights medium still, pretty much everywhere along and S of the ~ 30th parallel. trough depths are higher relative to normal, and ridge nodes? forget it! like 590 height cores? good luck... It's skewing and f'ing things up everywhere. standard correlations are stressed. ...such that yeah, we'd expect lowering heights in AK to elevate heights, transitively, ...down stream over the U.S. but, it seems that the heights would be high-ish regardless? It's certainly like that in the deep south. It may not obviously show up on anomaly products ...but that's probably because the intervals are just set to small... We're only talking 3 to 7 dm but systemically that subtlety has a bigger implication. It's really contributing to why the flow continues to have so many height contours and thus necessarily screaming mid level wind fields everywhere. There are two schools for how to get the flow to relax enough so that critical ratios of wave speeding vs nested anomalies don't negatively interfere: one is... lessen the cold pressing (hemispheric) south from the pole (unrealistic in January); the other, erode the heights in the subtropics. You know what's funny... as a weird sort of homage to interminable summer at southern latitudes the Euro's 00z operational run spins up a suspiciously looking warm core cyclone entity east of the Bahamas in the fantasy leagues? Well...in any event, it can still snow along the 40th parallel. We are still more likely to get faster translating midland scaled events than meridional curvilinear wonder bombs then not. It doesn't mean the latter can't happen, again... balancing likelihoods is the name of the game. We do so by employing two tenets ...which of course can be broken down further into subclass disciplines... but those are Education and Experience. They don't always agree, but using things like teleconnector and analogs can help smooth things out when they argue. One such argument is that D6-8 GFS from 00z ... I have thoughts on that but this post is too long already - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 John, funny....you hadn't mentioned that gradient yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 12 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Meanwhile while all you guys are focusing on events further out I'm watching later tomorrow for up here. To my untrained eye the 12Z NAM now has a totally frozen event for NNE. Even more snow than anything. Am I missing something? I don't see any snow near us unless you're way up north...and even north of BML it's a little marginal. The low levels keep trending colder, but there's a warm nose up there centered at 800mb. It's relatively warm right up through the cloud tops so there may be nucleation issues at times too. You could have a decent period of glazing at your elevation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: I don't see any snow near us unless you're way up north...and even north of BML it's a littler marginal. The low levels keep trending colder, but there's a warm nose up there centered at 800mb. It's relatively warm right up through the cloud tops so there may be nucleation issues at times too. You could have a decent period of glazing at your elevation though. I pulled up the LEB sounding off that run and that 1000'-1500' layer stays pretty cold. Like you said with his elevation he may get a decent glaze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 May start off as some frozen but looks to be mainly a cold rain unless your in Northern Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 00z Thursday the southern stream H5 shortwave gets sampled as it reaches the west coast of the US. So that is when I expect model runs to be best and most accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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