SR Airglow Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 LR model analysis/play by play goes here until storm threads are opened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Interested in what the 18z GFS says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 18z GFS at 42 hours looks deeper with the polar jet stream shortwave over central NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Man it's a shame that s/w sort of shears out next week. That would be a great storm inland if it came north slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man it's a shame that s/w sort of shears out next week. That would be a great storm inland if it came north slightly. I know, right? I keep peeking into each suite hoping to see that vortmax sustain itself a little longer. It looks like a nice, juicy, medium-rare steak coming out of the TN valley but looks more like a mcnugget up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Quite a snowy solution on the 6z GFS for up here Wed. That one will change a lot between now and then though. Mostly weenie fodder at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Late developing secondary on the 06z GFS in the GOM at hr 129, Snow to the coast, The previous GFS runs had hinted at a similar scenario, Something to watch going forward anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Such a bizzare GFS solution. That ULL ejecting from the gulf looks amazing at first. It then gets sheared out after forming a secondary...then the secondary hangs around offshore as the main s/w from the long wave trough approaches from the Midwest. Perhaps just enough moisture to give snow to the far interior too. But certainly not a very common outcome here...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 If you looked at hr 102 and 108 from the GFS and not at H5....you would have thought a juicy Miller A is coming. Gah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 That vort It goes off to the east thru the grinder and OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 12z CMC was similar to the 06z GFS as it develops a secondary low around 40/70 and tracks it along the DE Maine coast around the 8th in clown range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If you looked at hr 102 and 108 from the GFS and not at H5....you would have thought a juicy Miller A is coming. Gah. Something to watch...it could get better...it wouldn't be the first time a model tries to dampen out a shortwave too quickly. But yeah, dendrite's analogy is perfect, you look at the thing in the TN Valley and you start salivating...a nice filet mignon. Then by the time it gets here, it's a shriveled up overcooked soy burger patty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 I'm still somewhat skeptical of the GFS snuffing out the primary that quickly. Also of note on the GFS is that the late week cutter is completely gone now, after the midweek thing exits the cold flows in and that's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Yeah SR, I noticed that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Something to watch...it could get better...it wouldn't be the first time a model tries to dampen out a shortwave too quickly. But yeah, dendrite's analogy is perfect, you look at the thing in the TN Valley and you start salivating...a nice filet mignon. Then by the time it gets here, it's a shriveled up overcooked soy burger patty. Exactly. I suppose if anything, at least the risk of a full fledged cutter seems to be lessening for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 The late Sun nite/ Monday event picked up a little steam on the GFS and GGEM. At the least should be a period of light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Exactly. I suppose if anything, at least the risk of a full fledged cutter seems to be lessening for now. There's always the DGEX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: The late Sun nite/ Monday event picked up a little steam on the GFS and GGEM. At the least should be a period of light snow That thing really dries out quickly...I'm not confident we see much more than some flurries...maybe we'll see a coating if lucky. If the shortwave can trend back a bit deeper, then I'd be more optimistic. But it's so flat and the vortmax almost goes north of us now as it shears out. The Euro is a little more optimistic, but even that is still pretty weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 LaLa range finally produces a monster East Coast Storm. A little too far southwest for a snowstorm, but the pattern looks good for at least one of these type of systems. 300 hour storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 GFS also finally produces a +PNA ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's always the DGEX: Noose for Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: Noose for Ray. I'm sure he'd throw a tantrum mid-storm and b**ch his way to 11". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 I think I have been pretty even keeled in the early going- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Exactly. I suppose if anything, at least the risk of a full fledged cutter seems to be lessening for now. That's all I can hope for, for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 Euro is pretty bullish on Monday. C-1" coastline 1-2" interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Euro still well south for next Tuesday/Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 As long as mayhem is allowed here, why not the f312 gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Nice SWFE on the Euro in the 8-10th range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Euro from cutter to redeveloping low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Nice SWFE on the Euro in the 8-10th range Anafront!! On Friday at least...tries to scrape eastern areas after the initial event on Thursday night. At any rate, nice to see the cutter has evaporated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.