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Model Mayhem!


SR Airglow

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  On 12/30/2016 at 4:56 PM, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM on board for the D7-8 system as well...pretty juicy system on the GGEM (as it usually is). Hopefully we can embrace our inner Leon over the next couple weeks.

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Fwiw ... I rather like the flat wave version in this ... ferocious maelstrom of velocity anomalies we're trying to squeeze a winter out of ..

If we're going to gin up an event in a given mid range or late mid range, open bottle rockets are the way NOT to violate baser physical limitations of having 13 isopleths between lake Superior and Florida.  You'd expect flat waves moving fast. When the models attempt these curvi-linear perturbations in the flow .. one's smirk should immediate draw upon their face.

Anyway, equally applicable in this Neptunian pattern is timing and amplitude headaches.  So, obviously we have to get that to look confident.  We'll see what the Euro brings, if any semblance of it.  It is important to note that every 12 member of the GEFs that are available to free public has some form of baroclinic leaf blossoming in the south by Ds 6 and 7.

The upshot, we lead next weekend with a nice dip in the -EPO

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check:

just saw the Euro D6/7 ... while not 'quite' the same...similar enough at this time range for me.  Nice positive sloped trough extends from the southern Rockies to the eastern Lakes, and this is a large scaled fit for plaguing, unrelenting subtropical height wall in the deep south...  This is a nice prelude to an overrunning/durational thing; obviously subject to change... 

Also, can someone define what is meant by an 'internal leon' ?

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  On 12/30/2016 at 6:45 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

check:

just saw the Euro D6/7 ... while not 'quite' the same...similar enough at this time range for me.  Nice positive sloped trough extends from the southern Rockies to the eastern Lakes, and this is a large scaled fit for plaguing, unrelenting subtropical height wall in the deep south...  This is a nice prelude to an overrunning/durational thing; obviously subject to change... 

Also, can someone define what is meant by an 'internal leon' ?

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Jerry has nicknamed the '93-'94 winter "Leon"....anyways...def has that Jan '94-esque look to it.

 

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  On 12/30/2016 at 6:45 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

check:

just saw the Euro D6/7 ... while not 'quite' the same...similar enough at this time range for me.  Nice positive sloped trough extends from the southern Rockies to the eastern Lakes, and this is a large scaled fit for plaguing, unrelenting subtropical height wall in the deep south...  This is a nice prelude to an overrunning/durational thing; obviously subject to change... 

Also, can someone define what is meant by an 'internal leon' ?

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Isn't he related to the "eternal leon"?

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  On 12/30/2016 at 6:47 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yep, a good thing to have. Feel a little silly commenting that far out, but I'm a little hungry for snow.

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At least there's both good ensemble support and good larger scale pattern support...it passes the smell test so to speak...so it's something to follow. Hopefully it doesn't decide to cut or something....always a possibility, but Tip makes a good point about those gradients. It's tough to get big cutters when the flow looks like that....worst case is you might cut a front ender to ice, but probably not shoving a sfc low west of us in that pattern. But who knows...D7 caveats in full force.

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  On 12/30/2016 at 6:49 PM, ORH_wxman said:

 

At least there's both good ensemble support and good larger scale pattern support...it passes the smell test so to speak...so it's something to follow. Hopefully it doesn't decide to cut or something....always a possibility, but Tip makes a good point about those gradients. It's tough to get big cutters when the flow looks like that....worst case is you might cut a front ender to ice, but probably not shoving a sfc low west of us in that pattern. But who knows...D7 caveats in full force.

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Yeah I agree. Fast flow can be a good thing when troughing develops out west like that.

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  On 12/30/2016 at 6:56 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

 i know it! hah

actually, i was at uml back then; we had the same thing... although it wasn't really heavy snow... but, it was weird enough. we had well formed and dry aggregate clusters with rattling IP. 

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There was prob like a 1-2C warm nose at 750mb while 925mb was -12C.

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  On 12/30/2016 at 6:58 PM, ORH_wxman said:

There was prob like a 1-2C warm nose at 750mb while 925mb was -12C.

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that's exactly what it was.  the sounding curve from Chatham (or maybe that was ALB...) on the old school difax monitor had a violent right spike at like 10 K feet .. i remember us remarking, 'how often do you see a 10,000 foot tall sleet column'.  it was very warm anomaly at that specific level... Usually by the time you get to that altitude it's snow anyway. hell, summer CBs snow at that height some times..

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... in any case, the D8-9 blizzard that results ... obviously that's not happening like that without a some serious ass-kissin' leprechauns.

i just like the unanimous (pretty good actually) appeal for lop over getting going across every GEFs member. Helluva a good start. the -EPO leading has me intrigued, because where ever the baroclinic axis aligns it will be fresh and angry because of that  -

EPS?

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  On 12/30/2016 at 7:13 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

... in any case, the D8-9 blizzard that results ... obviously that's not happening like that without a some serious ass-kissin' leprechauns.

i just like the unanimous (pretty good actually) appeal for lop over getting going across every GEFs member.

EPS?

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3:15 for EPS

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