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Model Mayhem!


SR Airglow

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  On 12/24/2016 at 4:08 AM, Hazey said:


Yeah you're doing ok out there. How is the latest storm playing out? Must have another 6"+ in the bank. White Christmas assured at least.

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6-7" in the city, missed out in the deformation banding just 20 miles south, which got 10-12". But it was nice storm, and a pain from a forecasting perspective. Up to 36" or so on the month. 

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  On 12/24/2016 at 4:13 AM, OSUmetstud said:
6-7" in the city, missed out in the deformation banding just 20 miles south, which got 10-12". But it was nice storm, and a pain from a forecasting perspective. Up to 36" or so on the month. 


Models weren't aggressive enough. They were playing catchup as well as the forecasters. 3ft is not too shabby for the month. I think we are around 2ft here but we lost almost all off it do to this recent warm stretch. That's how it goes in the maritimes. Win some, loose a lot...lol.
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  On 12/24/2016 at 4:18 AM, Hazey said:


Models weren't aggressive enough. They were playing catchup as well as the forecasters. 3ft is not too shabby for the month. I think we are around 2ft here but we lost almost all off it do to this recent warm stretch. That's how it goes in the maritimes. Win some, loose a lot...lol.

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Nope, we average about 26" for december, with 1 week left in the month, so that's impressive.  

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  On 12/24/2016 at 4:27 AM, Hazey said:


Well savour it. If this pattern sets up as depicted, you might be on the wrong end of the business. So might I. Too soon to know yet. Been a great run so far though overall.

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Yeah the gradient is set up north-south, I'm worried it tilts too much to NW/SE.  

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GYN X talking about ice here on Monday and then a period of rain at the end, although they are hinting that the cold air at the surface may last longer than what is being modeled. Doesn't seem like snow as they say that the upper-level temperatures will warm quickly but that the surface will stay cold due to good antecedent cold 

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  On 12/24/2016 at 12:47 PM, mahk_webstah said:

GYN X talking about ice here on Monday and then a period of rain at the end, although they are hinting that the cold air at the surface may last longer than what is being modeled. Doesn't seem like snow as they say that the upper-level temperatures will warm quickly but that the surface will stay cold due to good antecedent cold 

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The low level cold really starts backing in tomorrow. It's going to feel a lot colder than how it looked a week ago based on the H5 progs. Mon night into Tue morning may be quite messy...but it seems like we get 2-3 sh1tty commutes a week lately anyways.

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