Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,909
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    WichitaChiefSam
    Newest Member
    WichitaChiefSam
    Joined

Model Mayhem!


SR Airglow

Recommended Posts

  On 12/19/2016 at 5:35 PM, CoastalWx said:

The 23rd has looked crappy for days so hopefully nobody got hung up over it. I'd also watch the storm on the 26th, esp interior and NNE. It's not close the shades for everyone.

Expand  

You know ... I was stinkin' ... this last snow event that nearly got completely eradicated the next day ... really was a "lucky" sort of dice role in the first place. 

The teleconnectors don't draw any kind of base-line look for snow east of the Rockies... What I think transpired is that for about 7 to 10 days we sported a rather robust -EPO, and that loaded Canada well and good with deep cold.  I remember last week posting the Canadian 10-D temp anomalies, and showed that it pretty much spanned the pan-wide continent at some -2 to -6(.4) sd ( average -3 in lay terms).   Idiosyncratic timing did the rest and played favorably for some overrunning....  

Now that we have squarely lost that antecedent blocking up there over Alaska ... heh, kind of makes sense that systems are de-amplifying coming east of the Rockies. ...relaxed heights (temporarily) in the SE or not... 

In fact, if at any point over the next 10 days we end up with a record breaking warm pop I wouldn't be shocked by that.  Rarely do we see EVERY atmospheric teleconnector warm .. interesting.

Edit: well... maybe not... EPO is neutralizing in recent runs so... either way - good for disk golf woot woot!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 3.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
  On 12/19/2016 at 6:03 PM, Hazey said:

Trends are not our friend today. Still time for a correction but the clock is running out. We've had it pretty good here this dec. lots of snow. I've had more in late nov till now, than I have had in the last two nov-dec seasons combined. 

Expand  

We will have to see. True the clock is running out. Weather seems to be very unpredictable though. Look at what happened on Saturday more snow than was predicted by the models on Saturday before it did go straight rain and a torch. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/19/2016 at 6:42 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

lol. as if you can have one without the other. if no computer simulations, how would one go about recognizing such a thing? 

Expand  

So So True.  What he doesn't understand, is that anything into the future is a simulation...one thing about it is wrong...and well.....

 

2-4 weeks from now...who knows what we will be looking at...but I guess some of these people think they know???

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/19/2016 at 7:45 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

SE ridge Dec 26-28 would mean 60's for highs. That's if Euro is right 

Expand  

 7-9 days out...I wouldn't be worrying about 60's.

 

For the very nice event that just passed on Saturday, Euro was one of the warmer models for quite some time..it ended up trending colder each run....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/19/2016 at 8:15 PM, WinterWolf said:

 7-9 days out...I wouldn't be worrying about 60's.

 

For the very nice event that just passed on Saturday, Euro was one of the warmer models for quite some time..it ended up trending colder each run....

Expand  

That was entirely different with a storm. This is just a record setting height wise SE ridge. Might not verify , but verbatim that's what it would be. Would even get mild in NNE . If it's right 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/19/2016 at 8:46 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

That was entirely different with a storm. This is just a record setting height wise SE ridge. Might not verify , but verbatim that's what it would be. Would even get mild in NNE . If it's right 

Expand  

Pretty good Ensemble support for a cutter during that time period. Alot can change at this lead time but the signal is there at the moment.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/19/2016 at 9:02 PM, mahk_webstah said:

Well damn! My new zone says snow likely on Thursday and then the chance of snow Monday. No mention of rain at all LOL. I hope it's right

Expand  

Yeah Thursday into Thursday night looks like a nice refresher currently for the northern third of New England on the GFS and NAM. 

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_neng_15_zpsnaxgluw4.png

nam_total_precip_neng_29_zps7o0adp5l.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/19/2016 at 10:15 PM, powderfreak said:

Yeah Thursday into Thursday night looks like a nice refresher currently for the northern third of New England on the GFS and NAM. 

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_neng_15_zpsnaxgluw4.png

nam_total_precip_neng_29_zps7o0adp5l.png

Expand  

Would be nice to get a tic or two south on that. Not impossible this year for sure, especially with cold nights over at thick sno pack

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...