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Model Mayhem!

SR Airglow

By SR Airglow,
in New England

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
  On 12/14/2016 at 11:44 PM, powderfreak said:

The December 3-4, 2007 storm looked like a real fun one to start off the month... 24" of snowfall on 2.70" of liquid at the Mansfield COOP.  And knowing how that thing under-reports/under-catches snowfall.... that's a huge storm right there.  Any idea on what that was?  Upslope or synoptic?  That's a huge amount of QPF in a 48-hour period all with a maximum temperature of 21F and a min of 1F. 

I honestly can't even imagine 2.7" QPF falling at temperatures in the teens and single digits...I'll have to go get the external hard-drive and look at my saved photos from back then.

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That was Farmington co-op in VD07:  23.0" on 3.06" LE at low teens - small flakes and wind, some rimed flakes.   Six miles to the east, I measured 15.5" on 1.80" LE while 3 miles to my SE the New Sharon co-op had almost exactly the same, 15.7" on 1.80" LE.  Not often that one of the three locales will have 70% greater LE than the other two from a synoptic winter storm.  At least the ratios weren't too different:  7.5 at Farmington and 8.6/8.7 in my burg.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

People need to stop with the blocking. Tha pacific is driving the bus and will for awhile. The stratosphere has been raging for 3 years so frankly i don't care what is shows. It's all about where the background forcing sets up on the pacific. Everything else is more minor compared to that. My feeling is that ridging returns sometime in January over Bering sea again. If we were to get a SSW, it's late in winter I think. But frankly, the strat is a minor and overrated detail right now. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
  On 12/15/2016 at 8:15 PM, nzucker said:

Chart is now included, had to delete some old attachments...50mb temps were near record levels in late Oct/early Nov, so there was significant warming of the stratosphere. This usually produces a favorable pattern a few weeks later, and indeed Binghamton had 16" of snow on 11/20, and we had our first coating here in NYC. The arctic outbreak occured about three weeks later, probably influenced by the disruption of the stratospheric PV which allowed the tropospheric PV to move from its normal location in the Arctic towards Quebec and Maine.

Here is what the stratospheric PV split looked like in late October, very dramatic:

2016-12-15 15.14.06.png

 

 

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wait, is that a model product, or an observation product - 

there's no evidence of warming in those layers at CPC's web-access portal for Strat/Trop monitoring division:

time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2016.png

That's one... 

secondly, there wasn't a "Sudden Stratospheric Warming" ... this is an SSW:

Refer to the left side of the image and note the red column that slopes to the right in time as it nears and passes into the tropopausal depths:

time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_ALL_NH_2004.gif

 

I don't want to say there was "no warming" per se - but, CPC definitely failed to pick that up using whatever means they use to sample the medium. Even if there was some sort of warming, there isn't any evidence that there was a propagating warm anomaly, which is a distinguishing characteristic of SSW total behavior known to correlate to modulating -AO. 

you can have warm nodes materialize ... but most of those are not propagating phenomenon.

Also, trying to associate Binghamton snow to 50 mb disputable warm anomalies isn't very sound logic and doesn't follow very well.  For one, cool and warm anomalies transpire of that ranking regardless, but also ...there wasn't an SSW ... 

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Go Kart Mozart

Go Kart Mozart

Posted
Posted
  On 12/15/2016 at 8:36 PM, CoastalWx said:

People need to stop with the blocking. Tha pacific is driving the bus and will for awhile. The stratosphere has been raging for 3 years so frankly i don't care what is shows. It's all about where the background forcing sets up on the pacific. Everything else is more minor compared to that. My feeling is that ridging returns sometime in January over Bering sea again. If we were to get a SSW, it's late in winter I think. But frankly, the strat is a minor and overrated detail right now. 

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And to further your case... some great winter WX over that 3 year span!

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SnowHole413

SnowHole413

Posted
Posted
  On 12/15/2016 at 9:37 PM, Go Kart Mozart said:

And to further your case... some great winter WX over that 3 year span!

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That's the thing though, everytime it did get great it was largely due to a ssw and pacific blocking.

Even if we do get a ssw this year who knows if it will even be directed into the arctic or not with the raging +qbo. Only time will tell.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 12/15/2016 at 9:34 PM, Go Kart Mozart said:

Beyond day 10?   I can only see the 10 day freebie...which doesn't look so great IMO.

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Yeah heights were higher in the WPO region late in the run...so there was some sufficient cold across the northern tier. Not a great pattern, but again, not unusable for winter wx enthusiasts in New England.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted
  On 12/15/2016 at 8:44 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

wait, is that a model product, or an observation product - 

there's no evidence of warming in those layers at CPC's web-access portal for Strat/Trop monitoring division:

That's one... 

secondly, there wasn't a "Sudden Stratospheric Warming" ... this is an SSW:

Refer to the left side of the image and note the red column that slopes to the right in time as it nears and passes into the tropopausal depths.

I don't want to say there was "no warming" per se - but, CPC definitely failed to pick that up using whatever means they use to sample the medium. Even if there was some sort of warming, there isn't any evidence that there was a propagating warm anomaly, which is a distinguishing characteristic of SSW total behavior known to correlate to modulating -AO. 

you can have warm nodes materialize ... but most of those are not propagating phenomenon.

Also, trying to associate Binghamton snow to 50 mb disputable warm anomalies isn't very sound logic and doesn't follow very well.  For one, cool and warm anomalies transpire of that ranking regardless, but also ...there wasn't an SSW ... 

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I don't think the stratospheric warming was nearly as intense this year as in Jan-Feb 2004 or late Jan 1958. This event was minor compared to those. Also, there is less variation in the stratosphere during fall than during mid-winter, so the CPC charts may have a harder time picking up on it. The fact remains, though: 10mb and 50mb WARMED A LOT, and the PV SPLIT/WAS DISTURBED. We can't deny those facts.

I never said Binghamton's large Nov snowfall was directly caused by the stratosphere, but it was related to a pattern change that probably stemmed from both ENSO warming/-SOI/MJO and stratospheric blocking tendencies which weakened the PV. In NYC, the first half of November was close to +5, but the month finished around +3 because of the cold.

We have definitely seen a pattern more conducive to cold shots since the effects of the warming and changes in the tropical Pacific set in. The Nov 20-Dec 20 period will be remembered as reasonably cold and somewhat snowy, at least for the interior. We have record low 500mb heights over Caribou with -25C 850s in mid-December and a 4-8" snowfall coming. Something to be said for that.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2016 at 12:03 PM, Hoth said:

lol, please God let it play out like that back half!

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Remember when it got good and cold in mid January and snow was sparse and weenies threw a huge pity party.  Then the euro saw the 2/8/13 storm from a week out and Kevin used reverse psychology.  That blizzard hit but the pattern collapsed-only to roar back in March!

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
  On 12/16/2016 at 12:07 PM, weathafella said:

Remember when it got good and cold in mid January and snow was sparse and weenies threw a huge pity party.  Then the euro saw the 2/8/13 storm from a week out and Kevin used reverse psychology.  That blizzard hit but the pattern collapsed-only to roar back in March!

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Yeah Kevin meh'ed himself to about 30" haha. That firehose storm in March was pretty amazing as well. Let us hope. I'll never write off a winter again after '12-'13 and '14-'15.

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