ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 On 12/14/2016 at 2:16 AM, moneypitmike said: Bring it on. Hopefully, I can have 7-10" of snow on the ground before the rain Saturday night. I might be delusional, but I think my snow will weather the rain and mild-up. Expand It's not delusional. There are scenarios on several models that would be sufficient to preserve your snow. But there's some that will wipe it out too. It just depends which scenario happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 On 12/14/2016 at 2:16 AM, moneypitmike said: Bring it on. Hopefully, I can have 7-10" of snow on the ground before the rain Saturday night. I might be delusional, but I think my snow will weather the rain and mild-up. Expand excuse me, will the real MPM please stand up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Kevs hoping for a Feb 06 frontal passage http://files.cbs6albany.com/wrgb/weather_historical_daily/2006/Feb-17-2006_HighWind_Event.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 On 12/14/2016 at 1:32 AM, Sugarloaf1989 said: That's how Enfield can be. We spent most of monday in the 30's after the rain stopped. We still have snow cover while areas to the south have none. Expand All grass on the east side of enfield by the prison drive a few miles its covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 On 12/14/2016 at 12:11 AM, Ginx snewx said: BOX AFD Expand Thanks. I hadn't checked it today sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 12:51 PM, J Paul Gordon said: The White Christmas thing is an interesting phenomenon. Is it the gift of Bing Crosby, or, has there always been a WC cult here in the Northeast? Most of the country very rarely to never sees one--basically everyone south of 40N except for the high mountains out west. Expand Well it says it right there in the song, "dreaming of a white Christmas" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 GFS is quicker yet again with the northern energy. It's better for less warm sector up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Yeah, Looked a little better then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 GGEM looks faster with that energy as well through 78 - jucier overall as well. This should produce a nice front-end for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 On 12/14/2016 at 4:17 AM, SR Airglow said: GGEM looks faster with that energy as well through 78 - jucier overall as well. This should produce a nice front-end for many. Expand Disaster on the GGEM. Trended worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 On 12/14/2016 at 4:17 AM, ORH_wxman said: Disaster on the GGEM. Trended worse. Expand GFS is a good deal cooler than this time last night. Lopped several degrees of the max wet bulb temps aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 On 12/14/2016 at 4:17 AM, ORH_wxman said: Disaster on the GGEM. Trended worse. Expand I'm toggling between 102 on the 0z and 114 on the 12z and it looks like the 0z is colder by a tick across the board, especially up north. What am I missing/what happens after that? Scratch that - 108 is ugly. Damn, I thought it had a better look to it earlier on. Thankfully it's the GGEM so I'm not worried about it - curious to see if the Euro follows the GFS or if it's on it's own here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 On 12/14/2016 at 4:17 AM, ORH_wxman said: Disaster on the GGEM. Trended worse. Expand I thought it looked pretty good. Similiar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 On 12/14/2016 at 4:21 AM, OceanStWx said: GFS is a good deal cooler than this time last night. Lopped several degrees of the max wet bulb temps aloft. Expand It has a really hard time warm sectoring northern areas. Another tick and areas from powderfreak to Rangeley would avoid it at all. But we need it to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 On 12/14/2016 at 4:25 AM, ORH_wxman said: It has a really hard time warm sectoring northern areas. Another tick and areas from powderfreak to Rangeley would avoid it at all. But we need it to continue. Expand I'm chunking my way through the thread right now to catch up, but in response to your comment earlier about the individual EPS members, it looks like a a pretty scatter shot MLSP pattern. A good split between amped, middle of the road, and flat/weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Maybe one or two hints at a secondary, but not enough to give a lot of hope for that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 0z GGEM was a furnace aloft pushed the 552 thickness up into northern ME with the primary about 75 miles further west and about 8 mb stronger then the 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 On 12/14/2016 at 4:31 AM, dryslot said: 0z GGEM was a furnace aloft pushed the 552 thickness up into northern ME with the primary about 75 mikes further west and about 8 mb stronger Expand The big killer on a GGEM solution is the duration of the warm sector. It's a slow cutter that just torches us for 18+ hours. A gfs scenario is much faster with the warmth since that northern energy outruns the southern for a while and keeps the whole trough somewhat flat until late in the game. We want the front runner wave to "steal" the baroclinic zone as much as possible to sort of force that cold front south a little and essentially turn the main cutter into a fairly quick FROPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 On 12/14/2016 at 4:34 AM, ORH_wxman said: The big killer on a GGEM solution is the duration of the warm sector. It's a slow cutter that just torches us for 18+ hours. A gfs scenario is much faster with the warmth since that northern energy outruns the southern for a while and keeps the whole trough somewhat flat until late in the game. We want the front runner wave to "steal" the baroclinic zone as much as possible to sort of force that cold front south a little and essentially turn the main cutter into a fairly quick FROPA. Expand Yeah, if we can get the second wave to act more like an occlusion that sweeps through with a brief warm up as we mix out followed by cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 On 12/14/2016 at 4:37 AM, OceanStWx said: Yeah, if we can get the second wave to act more like an occlusion that sweeps through with a brief warm up as we mix out followed by cool down. Expand Even the gfs as is isn't so bad. Might be a net gainer down here even. That's a pretty good front ender...it has to withstand about 8-10 hours of warm sector but who knows. That might be overplayed a bit in the interior. The euro will prob come in now with Bermuda visiting Montreal for 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Seriously though, if @powderfreak gets to the top of Mansfield on Thursday night and jumps he could actually sniff some ozone. First lobe comes through Thursday, but the second and deeper DT wave is Thursday night around 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 On 12/14/2016 at 4:45 AM, ORH_wxman said: Even the gfs as is isn't so bad. Might be a net gainer down here even. That's a pretty good front ender...it has to withstand about 8-10 hours of warm sector but who knows. That might be overplayed a bit in the interior. The euro will prob come in now with Bermuda visiting Montreal for 12 hours. Expand Close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 On 12/14/2016 at 10:16 AM, CoastalWx said: Close. Expand well that blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Euro just seems wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 This is what BOX was talking about in yesterday's AFD, and Benjamin and I were discussing tonight. All the available guidance shows a PV lobe swinging through with dynamic tropopause pressures around 700 mb. The exact location varies from model to model (this is the GFS) but it's quite an intrusion. Plotted on the 1.5 PVU surface here are pressure and winds. So if we can mix to the tropopause like some model guidance suggests, we could mix these jet level winds down. I see a few 50-55 kt flags in there across southern NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 On 12/14/2016 at 11:27 AM, OceanStWx said: This is what BOX was talking about in yesterday's AFD, and Benjamin and I were discussing tonight. All the available guidance shows a PV lobe swinging through with dynamic tropopause pressures around 700 mb. The exact location varies from model to model (this is the GFS) but it's quite an intrusion. Plotted on the 1.5 PVU surface here are pressure and winds. So if we can mix to the tropopause like some model guidance suggests, we could mix these jet level winds down. I see a few 50-55 kt flags in there across southern NH. Expand Where do some of the other models have it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 GFS likes that anafrontal wave later Sunday with rain changing to ice/snow..I doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 Do you think Brian's chickens will like the taste of ozone? Looks more like something out of interior Antarctica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 On 12/14/2016 at 11:29 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Where do some of the other models have it? Expand NAM/Global GEM north, Euro a hair south of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2016 Share Posted December 14, 2016 This from the BOX AFD made me laugh: Growing confidence of wind advisory headlines with possible high wind warnings. Am greatly concerned for inflatable holiday lawn ornaments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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