moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 6:39 PM, ORH_wxman said: Point and click fetish.... Expand LOL--that was the ZFP. Here's the p/c. Friday Night Snow likely, mainly after 3am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 5. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Saturday Snow likely, mainly before 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday Night A chance of snow and sleet before 7pm, then sleet likely between 7pm and midnight, then rain likely after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 And then a redux on the 23rd! Yikes fir people going skiing next week if right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 6:53 PM, J Paul Gordon said: It's Tuesday and the discussion is extraordinarily certain about the weekend event. Is it really that locked in? Discussion is about model output I believe. Precisely, but the discussion seems to have it locked in as a very nearly absolute certainty. Is it simply because of model/ensemble agreement? I'm reading some remarks about flattening of the wave(s), but that's the only hint that things might turn out differently. I'm interested in understanding the discussion about temps in the high 50'sF for twelve plus hours by some. That's a big jump from low to mid 40'sF for a few hours, or, an even colder solution. I am NOT looking for wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 6:55 PM, Damage In Tolland said: And then a redux on the 23rd! Yikes fir people going skiing next week if right Expand Powderfreak organizing a pond skimming contest for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 7:03 PM, ORH_wxman said: Powderfreak organizing a pond skimming contest for next week. Expand Resort owners emailing patrons to bring bikes instead of skis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 euro with a 25 degree jump run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Last page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 7:12 PM, CoastalWx said: Last page. Expand Any discussion about the certainty factor? I'm not invested either way, but why SO certain about ripping into the 50's F for 12-18 hours this far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 6:59 PM, J Paul Gordon said: Discussion is about model output I believe. Precisely, but the discussion seems to have it locked in as a very nearly absolute certainty. Is it simply because of model/ensemble agreement? I'm reading some remarks about flattening of the wave(s), but that's the only hint that things might turn out differently. I'm interested in understanding the discussion about temps in the high 50'sF for twelve plus hours by some. That's a big jump from low to mid 40'sF for a few hours, or, an even colder solution. I am NOT looking for wishcasting. Expand Are you talking to yourself again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 7:15 PM, J Paul Gordon said: Any discussion about the certainty factor? I'm not invested either way, but why SO certain about ripping into the 50's F for 12-18 hours this far out? Expand Based on what I see, we will warm sector big time. Unless this collapses flat..I don't see how at least near and south of pike aren't torching for 12-18 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 7:22 PM, CoastalWx said: Based on what I see, we will warm sector big time. Unless this collapses flat..I don't see how at least near and south of pike aren't torching for 12-18 hrs. Expand And the likelihood of it collapsing seems vanishingly remote. Let's hope it's not pouring the whole time. It would be quite pleasant if it were that mild without the rain. For the all or nothing crowd, I'd prefer a raging blizzard, but if its gotta warm up, it would be nice if it were dry enough out there to enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Euro picking up on some what looks likely to be some impressive Arctic squalls early Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 6:35 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Will the resorts have to shut down do you think? Expand Well I don’t think permanently (fingers crossed), but based on the forecast over the next couple of weeks, it’s looking like they would have to close through at least mid-January. It’s unfortunate timing with the big holiday period looming. It’s going to be a major financial hit to the local economy, but it is what it is I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Any top of the weenie examples of a temperature swing like is being modeled from Friday through Monday? Wild stuff... I'm guessing it gets muted on both ends to a more "meh" scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 7:27 PM, J.Spin said: Well I don’t think permanently (fingers crossed), but based on the forecast over the next couple of weeks, it’s looking like they would have to close through at least mid-January. It’s unfortunate timing with the big holiday period looming. It’s going to be a major financial hit to the local economy, but it is what it is I guess. Expand Ugh. Hopefully not . Maybe the warm sectors stay south of you guys . Or at least minimal time in them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 7:27 PM, J.Spin said: Well I don’t think permanently (fingers crossed), but based on the forecast over the next couple of weeks, it’s looking like they would have to close through at least mid-January. It’s unfortunate timing with the big holiday period looming. It’s going to be a major financial hit to the local economy, but it is what it is I guess. Expand This seems unlikely. While there certainly look to be some torch times in there over the next 2-3 weeks, there are also significant stretches where snowmaking temps (at least at night) occur. Even little Wa-Wa can stay open with manmade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 7:27 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Any top of the weenie examples of a temperature swing like is being modeled from Friday through Monday? Wild stuff... I'm guessing it gets muted on both ends to a more "meh" scenario Expand Last year, like every storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 13, 2016 Author Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 7:30 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: This seems unlikely. While there certainly look to be some torch times in there over the next 2-3 weeks, there are also significant stretches where snowmaking temps (at least at night) occur. Even little Wa-Wa can stay open with manmade. Expand Looks like you were an accidental casualty of taking the bait intended for Kevin Euro Ens hold on to the cold a little longer up north it looks like Saturday evening. Pretty similar look to the op as far as snow goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 FWIw, I haven't seen individual EC ensemble members, but there's several GEFS members that are quite a bit flatter than the OP runs we've seen. Now I wouldn't go hanging your hat on these runs, but it does suggest that at least there is some variance in there, so a somewhat flatter solution isn't impossible...in an era when we complain about the ensembles mimicking the OP runs a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 8:09 PM, ORH_wxman said: FWIw, I haven't seen individual EC ensemble members, but there's several GEFS members that are quite a bit flatter than the OP runs we've seen. Now I wouldn't go hanging your hat on these runs, but it does suggest that at least there is some variance in there, so a somewhat flatter solution isn't impossible...in an era when we complain about the ensembles mimicking the OP runs a lot. Expand How would this play out in terms of sensible weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 8:10 PM, J Paul Gordon said: How would this play out in terms of sensible weather? Expand Flatter equals less time in the warm sector and probably a bit more snow and a bit more icing in the interior. Some of the members never warm sectored us and kept us frozen...that's an extreme that I think is a very low probability, but something less obnoxiously warm than some of these OP runs is certainly not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 8:11 PM, ORH_wxman said: Flatter equals less time in the warm sector and probably a bit more snow and a bit more icing in the interior. Some of the members never warm sectored us and kept us frozen...that's an extreme that I think is a very low probability, but something less obnoxiously warm than some of these OP runs is certainly not out of the question. Expand Thank you. I've been having a bit of a problem following the sheer number of posts. I was under the impression that the warmest solutions were a virtual certainty and wondered how it could be so this far out. Not looking for confirmation of what I'd like to happen (big time snow, like most everyone else here), just trying to get how the experts know degrees of likelihood at a distance of several days. I get that once we are within three, maybe four, days things tend to lock. Your clear and simple explanation helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 8:06 PM, SR Airglow said: Looks like you were an accidental casualty of taking the bait intended for Kevin Euro Ens hold on to the cold a little longer up north it looks like Saturday evening. Pretty similar look to the op as far as snow goes. Expand LOL dude melts snow to the Canadian border every year around this time. 12 hours in the 40's at worst in ski country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 GGEM continues to be flat and south . That wouldn't kill like the other solutions. Haven't seen Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 8:15 PM, Ginx snewx said: LOL dude melts snow to the Canadian border every year around this time. 12 hours in the 40's at worst in ski country Expand Sounds like some other dudes we know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 8:15 PM, Damage In Tolland said: GGEM continues to be flat and south . That wouldn't kill like the other solutions. Haven't seen Ukie Expand GGEM was still a good 8-10 hour warm sector...but not as bad as Euro. Ukie was pretty amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 8:15 PM, Ginx snewx said: LOL dude melts snow to the Canadian border every year around this time. 12 hours in the 40's at worst in ski country Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 What blend of models does Taunton favor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 On 12/13/2016 at 8:20 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Expand so the 10-12 they get before then goes down to 4-6 on top of the feet they have in manmade and natural and you think they will close? Because of 12 hours above freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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