40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 On 12/10/2016 at 6:32 AM, ORH_wxman said: I'm still skeptical but there might be just enough room to sneak something in. But holy sh** at the cold after that. -34C at 850 into N ME by 150-156. That would annihilate some records. Expand Yea, storminess is dubious, but looks damn cold.....that is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 On 12/10/2016 at 6:25 AM, ORH_wxman said: Euro trying to bring back Dec 14-15 from the dead. Big changes this run. Hits S and SE areas prob with 2-3" and all of SNE with at least an inch. Not far from something bigger. That storm rips a hole in the atmosphere east of YYT. 947mb damn.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Looks like it would be more of a Thursday morning deal then Wednesday....which would wreck havoc with my classes...supposed to present that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Too bad that storm wouldn't stick around. Would make a great 50/50 low. We'd be frigid for days as it channeled in arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Pretty solid signal for torchy period d8-10 with cutter imbedded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 On 12/10/2016 at 6:36 AM, Hazey said: That storm rips a hole in the atmosphere east of YYT. 947mb damn.... Expand Down to 934mb eventually...looks like Nick would have wintertime Hugo to contend with. PV phases in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 On 12/10/2016 at 6:41 AM, weathafella said: Pretty solid signal for torchy period d8-10 with cutter imbedded. Expand Yea....that bomb is an Archembault event.......easts up the PV and rips into the NAO domain....the e US is one giant se ridge. Moral of the story is that we will find a way to avoid a white Christmas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Thursday damn. On 12/10/2016 at 6:41 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Down to 934mb eventually...looks like Nick would have wintertime Hugo to contend with. PV phases in. Expand A nice 18" quick hitter. It's not exactly how you would run an epic snowstorm here, there's no big high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 On 12/10/2016 at 6:41 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Down to 934mb eventually...looks like Nick would have wintertime Hugo to contend with. PV phases in.Triple phaser? Either way that would be an impressive storm even for that latitude if it occurred as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 On 12/10/2016 at 6:43 AM, Hazey said: Triple phaser? Either way that would be an impressive storm even for that latitude if it occurred as depicted. Expand Looks like a double phase to to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Hopefully the torch period passes by Christmas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Tickets to St. John's if it plays out like that. You guys would get a discount with our crappy dollar..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 On 12/10/2016 at 6:42 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea....that bomb is an Archembault event.......easts up the PV and rips into the NAO domain....the e US is one giant se ridge. Moral of the story is that we will find away to avoid a white Christmas.. Expand Fwiw (not much in this lead time) that's a strong front ender before a 24 hour torch before we re-freeze. Also, that Thursday event is way more robust this run. That will need to be watched to see if it's going to pull a 1/25/15. Remember right before that event we had a similar situation that we're going to see Monday as big time cold was lurking and about to envelop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 On 12/10/2016 at 6:47 AM, weathafella said: Fwiw (not much in this lead time) that's a strong front ender before a 24 hour torch before we re-freeze. Also, that Thursday event is way more robust this run. That will need to be watched to see if it's going to pull a 1/25/15. Remember right before that event we had a similar situation that we're going to see Monday as big time cold was lurking and about to envelop. Expand Yea, bears watching....but I'm highly skeptical. Night, boys- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 I'm tired of these "strong signals".....ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 On 12/10/2016 at 6:47 AM, weathafella said: Fwiw (not much in this lead time) that's a strong front ender before a 24 hour torch before we re-freeze. Also, that Thursday event is way more robust this run. That will need to be watched to see if it's going to pull a 1/25/15. Remember right before that event we had a similar situation that we're going to see Monday as big time cold was lurking and about to envelop. Expand Yup, and the Storm that would become the blizzard, was gone on the models until that Friday nights Euro 0z run(which as we know is actually Saturday's 0z run), and then BANG there it was-back from the dead and in our faces!! As I read the posts on the forum at 1:30 am that morning, it was snowing and 32 degrees...we picked up about 4 inches from that wet snow event on that Saturday, January 24th I believe it was, 2015. The blizzard came in that Monday. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 If only the Euro and Eps control snow maps would verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Man a double phased bomb in New Foundland and Greenland and would only become an 18" quick hitting storm for Nick. Man that is rough, if we had a 934mb bomb at the benchmark Nantucket would turn to heavy rain while Chatham was basking in blizzard conditions and winds ripping at around 100mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 On 12/10/2016 at 6:32 AM, ORH_wxman said: I'm still skeptical but there might be just enough room to sneak something in. But holy sh** at the cold after that. -34C at 850 into N ME by 150-156. That would annihilate some records. Expand yeah, it's something to marvel but, it's also part and parcel in what's absolutely killing us this early winter. can't really sustain 590 dm heights over the breadth of old Mexico/Gulf/Florida and the Bahamas ... if merely wobbling the mass of it back and forth while each successive continental event sort of 'bounces' off the top; meanwhile, the Earth produces bottom bounce type cold in southern Canada. the resulting flow is ...as i have been stressing enough to annoy no doubt .. a negative storm interference pattern. in fact, is specifically and particularly, negatively effects storms genesis/potential its self. we'll get all the temperature variance between extremes that people were taught to associate with storminess; however, imparted by comparatively weaker fan-fair in that regard until such time as it all relaxes. and to the astute reader, we don't need/want/mean (as storm enthusiasts) things to go weak, either. you need gradient - duh! you just can't have the 'rest state' of the atmosphere at 90 kts of geostrophic wind velocity. and all that screaming wind is because we have a hemispheric dilemma of summer time heights refusing to acquiesce to seasonal change butting up against anomalous early season cold, when looking south to north in the broader scope. and it is counter-intuitive to the average perusal of the forum. we were always taught ... warm vs cold = storm, right ? however, that doesn't unfortunately qualify 'too much warm vs too much cold' until the 'too much' gets removed from that equation, folks should expect shredded hand wringing butt-bang waste of time systems where we have to keep saying, 'look on the upside,' to ferret out a reason to smile. and btw, it's not just effecting us over middle n/a... if we look out across the entire expanse of the Pacific ocean we can see these flat ... pancaked 588 ridge blobs that have enormously cold troughs moving over top at mid and upper latitudes. if the mean of all relaxes ...say, 15 dm everywhere, we can make due with large storms in sufficient enough gradient. so, why is all that happening? i dunno... but i've never seen a late autumn early winter do this on a hemispheric scale. i'll say that much - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 GFS man cold incoming later this week. I would love a little snow OTG to maximize it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 GFS would obliterate some records Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 On 12/10/2016 at 2:42 PM, Typhoon Tip said: yeah, it's something to marvel but, it's also part and parcel in what's absolutely killing us this early winter. can't really sustain 590 dm heights over the breadth of old Mexico/Gulf/Florida and the Bahamas ... if merely wobbling the mass of it back and forth while each successive continental event sort of 'bounces' off the top; meanwhile, the Earth produces bottom bounce type cold in southern Canada. the resulting flow is ...as i have been stressing enough to annoy no doubt .. a negative storm interference pattern. in fact, is specifically and particularly, negatively effects storms genesis/potential its self. we'll get all the temperature variance between extremes that people were taught to associate with storminess; however, imparted by comparatively weaker fan-fair in that regard until such time as it all relaxes. and to the astute reader, we don't need/want/mean (as storm enthusiasts) things to go weak, either. you need gradient - duh! you just can't have the 'rest state' of the atmosphere at 90 kts of geostrophic wind velocity. and all that screaming wind is because we have a hemispheric dilemma of summer time heights refusing to acquiesce to seasonal change butting up against anomalous early season cold, when looking south to north in the broader scope. and it is counter-intuitive to the average perusal of the forum. we were always taught ... warm vs cold = storm, right ? however, that doesn't unfortunately qualify 'too much warm vs too much cold' until the 'too much' gets removed from that equation, folks should expect shredded hand wringing butt-bang waste of time systems where we have to keep saying, 'look on the upside,' to ferret out a reason to smile. and btw, it's not just effecting us over middle n/a... if we look out across the entire expanse of the Pacific ocean we can see these flat ... pancaked 588 ridge blobs that have enormously cold troughs moving over top at mid and upper latitudes. if the mean of all relaxes ...say, 15 dm everywhere, we can make due with large storms in sufficient enough gradient. so, why is all that happening? i dunno... but i've never seen a late autumn early winter do this on a hemispheric scale. i'll say that much - Expand You think it has something to do with the epic el nino this past year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 On 12/10/2016 at 2:42 PM, Typhoon Tip said: yeah, it's something to marvel but, it's also part and parcel in what's absolutely killing us this early winter. can't really sustain 590 dm heights over the breadth of old Mexico/Gulf/Florida and the Bahamas ... if merely wobbling the mass of it back and forth while each successive continental event sort of 'bounces' off the top; meanwhile, the Earth produces bottom bounce type cold in southern Canada. the resulting flow is ...as i have been stressing enough to annoy no doubt .. a negative storm interference pattern. in fact, is specifically and particularly, negatively effects storms genesis/potential its self. we'll get all the temperature variance between extremes that people were taught to associate with storminess; however, imparted by comparatively weaker fan-fair in that regard until such time as it all relaxes. and to the astute reader, we don't need/want/mean (as storm enthusiasts) things to go weak, either. you need gradient - duh! you just can't have the 'rest state' of the atmosphere at 90 kts of geostrophic wind velocity. and all that screaming wind is because we have a hemispheric dilemma of summer time heights refusing to acquiesce to seasonal change butting up against anomalous early season cold, when looking south to north in the broader scope. and it is counter-intuitive to the average perusal of the forum. we were always taught ... warm vs cold = storm, right ? however, that doesn't unfortunately qualify 'too much warm vs too much cold' until the 'too much' gets removed from that equation, folks should expect shredded hand wringing butt-bang waste of time systems where we have to keep saying, 'look on the upside,' to ferret out a reason to smile. and btw, it's not just effecting us over middle n/a... if we look out across the entire expanse of the Pacific ocean we can see these flat ... pancaked 588 ridge blobs that have enormously cold troughs moving over top at mid and upper latitudes. if the mean of all relaxes ...say, 15 dm everywhere, we can make due with large storms in sufficient enough gradient. so, why is all that happening? i dunno... but i've never seen a late autumn early winter do this on a hemispheric scale. i'll say that much - Expand interesting. last winter featured shredded or disjointed waves so I wonder if super nino still having an affect, regardless of what the current index numbers show. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Nowhere to go but downhill from here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Nice front ender next Saturday on the euro. At least today the trend is bettter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 On 12/10/2016 at 4:47 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: You think it has something to do with the epic el nino this past year? Expand On 12/10/2016 at 5:29 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: interesting. last winter featured shredded or disjointed waves so I wonder if super nino still having an affect, regardless of what the current index numbers show. ? Expand JMHO, but I think this is a Nina signal. We are basically neutral or slightly + NAO, A Bering Sea and EPO signal with troughing in the west. As far as the tropics go, we have general uplift or vertical motion out in the maritime continent of Indonesia which is another Nina signal. That teleconnection pattern I mentioned is usually one that is fast flow and therefore tough to get large QPF events. I think one of the better ways to get a larger QPF event is to have the pattern support a stalled front offshore with a long duration overrunning event. Sometimes you can phase a s/w from the PV with another coming off the Pacific, but that can take a little more work as far as timing goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 After the not gonna happens James mid week event, hopefully next weekend trends to a cold solution. Seems like it could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Darn cold euro run. Man the models have been so volatile lately. These changes in the 6-10 day are pretty nuts...with every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 I feel the grinch starting to smirk. There's gotta be some science behind that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 On 12/10/2016 at 11:16 PM, Googlymoogly said: I feel the grinch starting to smirk. There's gotta be some science behind that. Expand Well, if you're talking just SNE then December climo doesn't really favor 'locked in' winter conditions, it's still often a transition month. I think much of SNE only has like 40-50% chances of a white Christmas depending upon where exactly you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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