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December Obs and Disc Thread


mappy

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On Thursday, December 01, 2016 at 9:31 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

But...but...I had the first obs and disco thread :(

That's ok :hug:I'm just glad met winter is here!

You could start a thread for obsersavations of the obs thread...that would be banter I suppose though...maybe start a banter obs thread. That should work. 

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28 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

NWS has chance of mix tommorow  evening and mix likely Tuesday in my zone. Surface temps will be crap I'm sure but hopefully I see something fall from one of these minor threats. I was out of town for the first flakes during the Megatron Megafront.

NAM keeps getting slightly colder for tomorrow night.

I don't think I'd give it any weight for Tuesday.

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24 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

18z gfs looked a tad colder for Tuesday . That's the thing with these small events...they seem to trend cooler more often then not.  I think ambiance flakes or pellets are a lock almost for n/w folks and maby 95 gets a few if models  keep cooling 

It's CAD events that trend colder IMO.  And this Tuesday deal looks to be pretty wet.  And, even though I'm laughing at saying it, the NAM has trended a good bit colder for it.

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30 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Great photo.  I love that area especially in winter when all the migrating ducks visit.

You should start our winter photo thread.

Thanks! I was surprised how there were so few ducks and migratory geese there were there during this visit. Minimal Eagles too. They had the trail around the Eagle Cam open since they weren't nesting yet. 

 

I set up a photo thread....

 

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25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

If we do a thread, a northerner should start it. 


.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Closed low over northern Mexico will eject eastward into Texas on
Monday, then open up and head northeastward towards us Monday
night and Tuesday. In response, surface low pressure will develop
and head northeastward along the Atlantic seaboard. A primary low
will lift north west of the Apalachians while a secondary will
redevelop in the Carolinas. In between, a wedge of colder air is
likely to hold firm east of the Allegeny Front. In short...this
spells trouble...though the extent of it remains uncertain.

Skies may still be mostly clear early Monday night, allowing for
some radiational cooling. However, clouds are likely to build in
by midnight and put a stop to that, perhaps even allowing temps to
rebound a bit. That said, the further inland one is, the less of a
bump one might expect. Warm advection precip will start moving
northeast across the region late Monday night with precip likely
to arrive during rush hour in the metro, perhaps near the end of
the rush up towards Baltimore. Dry air again will be in place so
even though much of the I-95 corridor may still be above freezing,
some snow and sleet may initially make their way to the surface.
No impacts are currently anticipated in this corridor, however, as
the moistening of the already warm atmosphere should cause any
sleet and snow to go over to rain with little accumulations.

Further inland, especially across the Shenandoah Valley, cold air
may be trapped for the duration. These areas may get significant
icing if the colder guidance is to be believed. After also
possibly starting as snow/sleet, freezing rain is likely to be the
predominate precip type most of the morning, perhaps changing to
rain as temps only very slowly warm up in the afternoon. Given its
usual good handling of cold air damming, the NAM temps were
favored. This suggests that some areas could stay freezing rain
nearly all day on Tuesday. However, since temps will be marginal,
and most of precip will fall during daylight, we are skeptical about
a warning level ice event, so for now still will advertise
potential advisory. Highs will be stuck in the 30s in the
SHenandoah Valley, while struggling to reach 40 further east. As
the system weakens and lifts north, expect rain to taper off
Tuesday night, though if cold air damming is as persistent as some
guidance suggests, there could still be a little freezing rain
ongoing in the Shenandoah Valley. Temps will likely move little
Tuesday night.

Freezing rain would be a zero issue event this early since we really haven't had any real cold.  I'm sure hard surfaces are well above freezing.

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