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Winter Banter & General Discussion/Observations


ORH_wxman

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14 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

but what does it matter if it doesn't stick around. Nearly 3/4 of that lasted less than 2 weeks before the Jan and Feb meltdowns.

Well everyone and their uncle knew this wasn't going to be a pack fetish retention winter. Ninas never are as they ebb and flow. To get 100" of snow and have your peak depths of your entire lifetime is pretty special 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That has to mean something. Over 100", 2 storms of nearly 2' and a melt. Wow.

Are you surprised? Lol. 

Lavarock would complain if he got 80" of snow and great pack retention because he didn't get two 24" storms like this winter. 

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Are you surprised? Lol. 

Lavarock would complain if he got 80" of snow and great pack retention because he didn't get two 24" storms like this winter. 


You have to understand most of my complaining comes from the consistency of a good winter as it relates to snowmobiling. It may seem stupid to get worked up over it since there's nothing I can do, but it still bothers me. I won't deny the fact that in a good retention year with only 80" I'd still complain and wished we had more but we're all weenies and want the most snow and cold we can get.
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17 hours ago, psv88 said:

But you are saying that an extreme event, aka a 4"+ rainfall, is indicative of climate change...so you are using extreme events as part of your data set, albeit to indicate the increased frequency of said events, but still using the events nonetheless, so one extreme event forms the part of a trend, therefore the individual extreme events naturally, must be, still indicative of climate change...

I'm using a five-fold increase in the frequency of such events during the final one-sixth of a 120+ year record compared to the initial five-sixths.  Such a major uptick over a 20-year period at a location with well over a century of record should count more, IMO, than a 20-month string of AN months.  However, it's still just one location, and it's similar data from many locations that support the trend.

(Side note:  I've downloaded NYC data from some good sites, and though my numbers obviously aren't official, they show May of last year to be right on the 1981-2010 average and April at -0.10.  That's a pretty tiny departure, and one must go to June 2015 (-0.66) for a wider spread, and to Feb-Mar of that year for serious BN months.)

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3 hours ago, Googlymoogly said:

Does this weather warrant any actual concern? Just feels wrong. I don't know how to explain it but it bothers me and lots of others. 

Please don't call me a weenie. I'm being serious!! 

Enjoy the variability.  Consider Caribou in 1994: Just 3 weeks after completing their coldest month (Jan 1994) in what is now 77 years' record, they touched 59 on Feb 20, their warmest Feb day by 7F.  Despite the warmth record, that month finished more than 7F BN.

I just meant the chance for below 0F is greatly diminished. I did refer to climo. 

Much better odds at my frost pocket location.  In 18 years here, only March 2010 ailed to record at least one subzero morning.  (And that month did not even get down to single digits.)  That plus the modeled temps for the first half of the month point toward 18-of-19 getting below zero.

And the snowpack this winter, once one gets off the coastal plain, seems to be good to excellent.  I doubt I'll ever again reach 3800+ SDDs like 2007-08, but I see this season joining the 4 other winters at 2400-2800.

 

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

I'm Kevin.  Snow and high summer.  Old people like humidity for our skin.

To each their own - I'd be happy if TD never got above 50.  My favorite times are winter, May (unless it features endless chilly cutoffs like 2005) and October.  Crisp clean air, bright colors in Oct and lovely pastels in May.

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