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Winter Banter & General Discussion/Observations


ORH_wxman

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I started in the upper 20 inches though. Most that was lost was just the new powder that basically just became more wet and dense. That will all freeze up over the next two days solidly. So I'll go into Wednesday with over 20" of glacier. It's not going that quickly.

Well maybe if the dews are low, but if the severe weather and high dews come to fruition next that are modeled , certainly by then. Once you expose a few grass patches, the rest of the lawn opens up quickly.

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I've been practicing with it in the forecast challenge.  I'm actually in 8th place right now in Jackson, MS heading into the final week :yikes:

Figuring out the mixing level and using mid level temps you can definitely excel in the wx challenge. Mos is generally decent, but you can find certain instances where you can really beat mos. Competing in wx challenge was alot of fun

 

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12 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Figuring out the mixing level and using mid level temps you can definitely excel in the wx challenge. Mos is generally decent, but you can find certain instances where you can really beat mos. Competing in wx challenge was alot of fun

 

I nailed day 1 for this city.  I think 12z or 18z MOS data had around 68-70F for a high and USL had 71 maybe but from what I calculated I obtained 76 so went with that and that's what the Hugh turned out to be lol.  Sometimes it can be a challenge figuring out mixing height...NAM and GFS always seem to yield much different levels and such.  Plus the method can hurt if there's clouds, precip or WAA/CAA and such. 

Matt (H20 town wx or whatever is handle is) taught me the method 

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59 for the high here. 58 at BDL and 62 at HFD.  I will admit that I enjoyed going out on bikes and playing football  today with the boys. However the snow melt was depressing with the mud everywhere so overall it was a more mixed feeling unlike the torch in previous Decembers and January where I was completely disgusted. I Still have pack here in my neighborhood but out on the main roads grass is really starting to take over.   

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2 hours ago, wx2fish said:

Figuring out the mixing level and using mid level temps you can definitely excel in the wx challenge. Mos is generally decent, but you can find certain instances where you can really beat mos. Competing in wx challenge was alot of fun

 

 

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I nailed day 1 for this city.  I think 12z or 18z MOS data had around 68-70F for a high and USL had 71 maybe but from what I calculated I obtained 76 so went with that and that's what the Hugh turned out to be lol.  Sometimes it can be a challenge figuring out mixing height...NAM and GFS always seem to yield much different levels and such.  Plus the method can hurt if there's clouds, precip or WAA/CAA and such. 

Matt (H20 town wx or whatever is handle is) taught me the method 

Winds can be a huge difference maker too. Since you're forecasting max wind speed, MOS will always be too light as it's just showing the hourly sustained. Bufkit can really give you an edge on the mixing depth and resulting potential frequent gusts.

I rode consistently solid wind forecast at DDC to a Cinderella 12 seed run to the championship in 2007-2008.

2017-02-19_22-53-21.png

:weight_lift:

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42 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

Winds can be a huge difference maker too. Since you're forecasting max wind speed, MOS will always be too light as it's just showing the hourly sustained. Bufkit can really give you an edge on the mixing depth and resulting potential frequent gusts.

I rode consistently solid wind forecast at DDC to a Cinderella 12 seed run to the championship in 2007-2008.

2017-02-19_22-53-21.png

:weight_lift:

I'm not a fan at all of using MOS to forecast winds.  I def side with bufkit for winds.  Sometimes I may slide towards USL.  

 

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6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm not a fan at all of using MOS to forecast winds.  I def side with bufkit for winds.  Sometimes I may slide towards USL.  

The rule of thumb is that MOS winds will give you about half the potential gust. So a MOS 20 knot flag would say gusts to 40 knots possible, etc. 

But a lot of people in the contest will use MOS as a starting point and those are easy points to gain. 

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9 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

 

Winds can be a huge difference maker too. Since you're forecasting max wind speed, MOS will always be too light as it's just showing the hourly sustained. Bufkit can really give you an edge on the mixing depth and resulting potential frequent gusts.

I rode consistently solid wind forecast at DDC to a Cinderella 12 seed run to the championship in 2007-2008.

2017-02-19_22-53-21.png

:weight_lift:

O hai

IMG_7153.PNG

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13 hours ago, dendrite said:

Purely chicken reasons here. When the pack gets high I want it higher...but after the high water mark I don't have a lot of use for it anymore. I just have a bunch of muddy, water-logged chickens and flooded paths. The sooner they can free range the better. They can't even dustbathe right now because the blowing snow the other day blew it all against the foundation and under the coop so it's all wet now.

Us melters aren't taking your snow. ;)

 

13 hours ago, weathafella said:

No.  I don't appreciate risking my life every night that freezes after daytime melting.  Snowpack is fine for a week or 2 but then it gets boring.  For me clear walking not requiring anything but regular shoes is worth plenty. 

It's Feb though. Plenty of time for banana hammocks and sweat dripping of parts we don't want it to. Since Brian is raising these little chicks to COC fight...I can understand needing space to train them.

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10 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Knocked out one of my UML classmates in the semis. He knocked me out in the first round with a midnight low the last night

I remember that being a good battle. It was always extra satisfying beating the PSU and MIT students. You just knew they were working together and collaborating while I was all on my lonesome. Sorry Duke and UNC...a DIII diaper dandy school took you out. :guitar:

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45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

It's Feb though. Plenty of time for banana hammocks and sweat dripping of parts we don't want it to. Since Brian is raising these little chicks to COC fight...I can understand needing space to train them.

I get that but personally retaining pack doesn't mean much to me and it gets in the way of my outdoor exercise.  I love the snow when it's coming down and for a bit afterwards but I also like melting it all and doing it all again.

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18 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

The rule of thumb is that MOS winds will give you about half the potential gust. So a MOS 20 knot flag would say gusts to 40 knots possible, etc. 

But a lot of people in the contest will use MOS as a starting point and those are easy points to gain. 

That's good advice thanks.  I knew MOS seemed to undercut gust potential but didn't realize that much.  

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9 hours ago, weathafella said:

I get that but personally retaining pack doesn't mean much to me and it gets in the way of my outdoor exercise.  I love the snow when it's coming down and for a bit afterwards but I also like melting it all and doing it all again.

I wonder if it'still an age thing. I'm the same way. That's the main reason I hate it when the good snow is during their night.

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I mean that contest was fun. I can remember furiously refreshing my phone at the Bruins/Montreal game 6 at the Garden waiting for the DDC climate to come out.

That professor from UGA I beat had a great week, only 5 error points. 

April 18th was 64/32/17/0 at DDC. I went 66/32/18/0 (2.5 error), and he went 64/33/22/0 (3.5 error). April 19th (game 6) was 80/36/21/0. He forecast 79/36/20/0 (1.5 error) and I went 80/37/21/0 (1 error). I just painted the corner those two days. 

Then I just sat back and watched Kessel take over the 3rd period, and Marco Sturm completed the nudity that night by waiting out Price for the GWG.

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26 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

Big spring related news this morning...  my titmice have just begun their "peter, peter" calls!!!!

Chickadees have been adding their spring "phee-bee" call to their regular "chick-a-dee-dee" for over a week now.  Even heard it this morning with temp about 5F.  Pack is settling away, down to 36".  Guess I'll be mowing the lawn after this weekend.  :lol:

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