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Winter Banter & General Discussion/Observations

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
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lol...just noticed the chicken posts. I'm worried about frostbit combs and wattles with the cold shot next week. It figures we have to get our first legit Dec cold shot in years after I get my birds. I may give them a little heat to take the edge off for my couple of leghorns.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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3 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

always missing every god damn mother****** interesting thing sdfssdffdsd

 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

maybe you'll be happy you left?

Good news is the angle of this one won't wash away any of my overwater bungalows. Although the USGS map shows it having occurred behind San Cristobal island relative to Hawai'i. So i'm not sure if they'll actually see some tsunami action.

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Boston Bulldog

Boston Bulldog

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I have a few questions as we stare down our first potential regionwide event.

1. I've heard the term "stemwinder" tossed around here quite a few times recently. I've discerned that stemwinder is essentially a cutter, but what is so special about it? What makes a low a "stemwinder" as opposed to a HV or Lakes runner? Is it just really amped up?

2. It's looking like we have a SWFE incoming. The general rule is a uniform 8-10 inches across the region as the high end amount for this type of storm. If I remember correctly, wasn't the 2/2/15 event (Post Super Bowl Storm) a SWFE as well? As I remember, that storm really overachieved and dropped 20+ inches over a large swath of EMA over 24 hours, but at the same time on surface maps appeared to be a traditional SWFE that popped a secondary off the coast. Was that storm a true SWFE? If it was, what dynamics caused the storm to bust so high in the face of typical storm type climo.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Just now, Boston Bulldog said:

I have a few questions as we stare down our first potential regionwide event.

1. I've heard the term "stemwinder" tossed around here quite a few times recently. I've discerned that stemwinder is essentially a cutter, but what is so special about it? What makes a low a "stemwinder" as opposed to a HV or Lakes runner? Is it just really amped up?

2. It's looking like we have a SWFE incoming. The general rule is a uniform 8-10 inches across the region as the high end amount for this type of storm. If I remember correctly, wasn't the 2/2/15 event (Post Super Bowl Storm) a SWFE as well? As I remember, that storm really overachieved and dropped 20+ inches over a large swath of EMA over 24 hours, but at the same time on surface maps appeared to be a traditional SWFE that popped a secondary off the coast. Was that storm a true SWFE? If it was, what dynamics caused the storm to bust so high in the face of typical storm type climo.

2/2/15 was able to develop a secondary far enough south that it continued the mid-level processes for creating precip long after a typical SWFE would have dryslotted us...if you recall, we had a debate the night before about the RGEM/GGEM really honing in on continuing the precip all afternoon vs mostly a morning event...they turned out to be correct (the late 00z Euro that night sort of half-heartedly jumped on the bandwagon so we started to know it was likely)

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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3 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

I have a few questions as we stare down our first potential regionwide event.

1. I've heard the term "stemwinder" tossed around here quite a few times recently. I've discerned that stemwinder is essentially a cutter, but what is so special about it? What makes a low a "stemwinder" as opposed to a HV or Lakes runner? Is it just really amped up?

2. It's looking like we have a SWFE incoming. The general rule is a uniform 8-10 inches across the region as the high end amount for this type of storm. If I remember correctly, wasn't the 2/2/15 event (Post Super Bowl Storm) a SWFE as well? As I remember, that storm really overachieved and dropped 20+ inches over a large swath of EMA over 24 hours, but at the same time on surface maps appeared to be a traditional SWFE that popped a secondary off the coast. Was that storm a true SWFE? If it was, what dynamics caused the storm to bust so high in the face of typical storm type climo.

I've always taken stemwinder to be a really amped solution. Of course many of those will cut if we don't have the requisite blocking in place.

And you have the gist of a SWFE correct. The lift tend to be driven solely by WAA, so the initial "thump" is usually around 6-8 hours of lift. That's why it is tough to get more than 10" of snow out of it. If lift lingers longer than 10 hours there are other processes going on.

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Boston Bulldog

Boston Bulldog

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5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I've always taken stemwinder to be a really amped solution. Of course many of those will cut if we don't have the requisite blocking in place.

And you have the gist of a SWFE correct. The lift tend to be driven solely by WAA, so the initial "thump" is usually around 6-8 hours of lift. That's why it is tough to get more than 10" of snow out of it. If lift lingers longer than 10 hours there are other processes going on.

Yeah I do remember being shocked that we didn't dry-slot that day. Guess I missed that discussion on the possibility of an extended storm because I was stressed out of my mind watching the game. Honestly ranks as one of my favorite storms because it simply overachieved so much. Woke up to a front-end thumper that never stopped thumping.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Posted

Still experiencing that after-glow of seeing something I haven't seen in a while.  The Lake Ontario band interacted with Mansfield's orographic lift today and brought what I believe to be the heaviest short duration snow rates we've seen in several years.

Been posting more info in the NNE thread but figured it was worth throwing this little tidbit in here....In roughly 90 minutes I picked up 4.5" of snow at the High Road snow plot at 3,014ft... for a snow rate of 3"/hr (not bad for a 90 minute duration). 

The distance between the office window and the Mansfield base lodge is about 600ft...and this was one of the very few times in my 10 years here that I've not been able to see the base lodge at all.  Sometimes it gets to the point of barely being able to see it, which is still M1/4sm visibility, but this was another level.  This is a cell phone photo from the window, no zoom, and visibility is about 1/10th of a mile based on the distance from here to the base lodge.

Certainly a memorable little squall for a weather weenie.

Heavy-snow-squalls-at-Stowe.jpg

 

And this is the High Road snow plot once it slowed down.  High confidence on the numbers as I was there and cleaned a half inch off it around 10am and there was no wind at all in this.  We did pick up some additional snow after this too.

15380706_10102765608684890_6522753616349

 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

no .. i give you credit as not being "simple minded" 

i do, however, equally give you my sympathies for having your mind be dimmed and dumbed by this auto-pilot instant gratification technology we are submerged in.. An easy victim of which is any time one could stop to appreciate things doesn't really happen.  and, it doesn't then lend to creating a mind that is pre-prepared to reading a metaphor like 'steam compared to cumulus' and so forth.

it's not ur fault.  people just don't read anymore - it's a shrinking preference regardless.  everything is emogees and rebus' on their portable devices.  Tweets?  absolutely murder the virtue of poetry and creative dialogue/exchange of opine and ideas.  

it's a conditioning thing.  if you are young, it's status quo.  if you are older ..say Gen x and more, you sense a dearth in virtuosity and value in just about everything. 

 A discussion for another thread but lumping gen x together from social media tweets makes you sound like an old man on his recliner telling us how much better it used to be. For this forum though, many of us arent on our labtops all day with the time to make or read elborate posts. Sort of us want to get to the gist and keep moving about our day. You have to accept that. But if that is deteriating our entire specie intellect then lock yourself in the basement because it is only going to get worse. While I agree with your some of your views I'm slightly deterred that you lump peoples inability to comprehend your post with everything you see wrong about today's world. And just maybe we dont care about you visually observing the steam off your coffee when We really want to know what you think about the weather, just like people wouldn't care if I posted how I focus on my 8month boys breathing patterns as a sign of peacefulness helping me ease into the present moment before I proceed to give my amateur weather opinion. Just get to the point. You tend to read one bad post and turn it into a short story of how the entire human race is going downhill. It's a bit of a "haha I am smarter than these fools" ideology that you exhibit from time to time.

Happy to talk over PM if you think I am way off. We all may have differences but pointing fingers and not accepting those differences as a basic human element is where it goes wrong. And if my grammar is off, sorry but english is my second language...so go easy in judging my IQ based off my writing skills. 

 

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
42 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 A discussion for another thread but lumping gen x together from social media tweets makes you sound like an old man on his recliner telling us how much better it used to be. For this forum though, many of us arent on our labtops all day with the time to make or read elborate posts. Sort of us want to get to the gist and keep moving about our day. You have to accept that. But if that is deteriating our entire specie intellect then lock yourself in the basement because it is only going to get worse. While I agree with your some of your views I'm slightly deterred that you lump peoples inability to comprehend your post with everything you see wrong about today's world. And just maybe we dont care about you visually observing the steam off your coffee when We really want to know what you think about the weather, just like people wouldn't care if I posted how I focus on my 8month boys breathing patterns as a sign of peacefulness helping me ease into the present moment before I proceed to give my amateur weather opinion. Just get to the point. You tend to read one bad post and turn it into a short story of how the entire human race is going downhill. It's a bit of a "haha I am smarter than these fools" ideology that you exhibit from time to time.

Happy to talk over PM if you think I am way off. We all may have differences but pointing fingers and not accepting those differences as a basic human element is where it goes wrong. And if my grammar is off, sorry but english is my second language...so go easy in judging my IQ based off my writing skills. 

 

 

meh, you make a lot of assumptions and incorrect and/or illogical comprehensions over 'what exactly i said' - sorry to blunt.  but, assignment of aspects that are creative, more so than what was factually written down, is riddled in your reply.  just one example in many:  "......so go easy in judging my IQ based off my writing skills." ?  really ... there was never any challenged leveled at you bro.  it proves the point really - part of the "dimming" consequence ... lacking analytical perspective and reaching for emotive/personalized interpretations first.  

you make my point for me when you go on about just making terse points ...because there's no appreciation ;)  that's how that works

i am gen-x.. and me and my sphere of friends, who were educated in a different era, and have experienced life on both sides of history in this debate, all agree with me - and it is something that is troubling to us.  and, we are not 'old persons in recliners, either -that's an example of your own fabricating 'sound' a likes.   i did not say anything that really necessitates that interpretation.  that's your imagination - ur being guided by feel and emotion over analytical perception when you read, and sorry to be blunt again: a common result of lack of conditioning that is more and more common as older generations die off and younger ones replace.    

i/we do also agree it is getting worse and will get worse, as layers and layers and layers of technology stratify ever deepening a separation between 'how to' and 'how i get my next fix'.   

but ur right - it's a discussion for a different arena.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

I've always taken stemwinder to be a really amped solution. Of course many of those will cut if we don't have the requisite blocking in place.

And you have the gist of a SWFE correct. The lift tend to be driven solely by WAA, so the initial "thump" is usually around 6-8 hours of lift. That's why it is tough to get more than 10" of snow out of it. If lift lingers longer than 10 hours there are other processes going on.

this is a great way of describing.  i read in a Boston AFD many years ago that there is a basic index finger rule that is the wind is 22 kts from the S at 850 mb, warm air will penetrate if given enough time, BUT, the surface has to be calm. if there is any llv ageostrophic 'drain' of any kind still on-going that offsets how long it takes the penetration into low levels deeper in the interior.   

point being, that sort of backs us into a suggestion that there is length of time limit that the snow growth region of the given sounding can continue to accrete in a waa onslaught.  interesting.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

 

i've often wondered if there is an upper limit to the rate snow can fall and be effectively distinguished between just being inside the fuzzy column of accreting dendrites (for lack of better words..) like, sometimes on those exposed crags way up in mountain sides, where the wind hums and the snow is blinding, the aftermath shows that most of the snow is/has clung to objects horizontally...like it was a massive hoarfrost blizzard more so than real snow. 

i've seen 8" fall in one hour three diffrerent times... never more... what is also interesting to me is that two of those three times the wind was very light. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I haven't personally experienced 8" per hour (using 1 hour as the minimum time limit...so I don't count snow squalls that last 15 minutes and drop 2"), but came close in 12/23/97...it was about 7" per hour. Next closest is probably during the Dec 1996 storm when I had 4-5" per hour at one point and also in 12/9/05 when I had 4.5" in an hour near the end. The ending to Jan 2005 blizzard also had a band rotate through that gave 4" per hour which lasted about 90 minutes.

Feb 2013 was close too...though I don't recall ever exceeding 4" in an hour between my measurements...I think maybe 3.5 was my max. Down in CT they certainly got more intense snow...6" per hour stuff. Jan 2015 early that morning I had 4" per hour as well in that crazy band.

I may be missing an event or two...I'd have to think more about it. But yeah, 8" is a pretty rare benchmark to reach for one hour totals....based on my personal experience above, I find that 4" per hour is a tough barrier to break through....values above that are rare. I've read that some storms out west have recorded 10" per hour stuff...orograpically enhanced though, like in the Sierras around Lake Tahoe.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I haven't personally experienced 8" per hour (using 1 hour as the minimum time limit...so I don't count snow squalls that last 15 minutes and drop 2"), but came close in 12/23/97...it was about 7" per hour. Next closest is probably during the Dec 1996 storm when I had 4-5" per hour at one point and also in 12/9/05 when I had 4.5" in an hour near the end. The ending to Jan 2005 blizzard also had a band rotate through that gave 4" per hour which lasted about 90 minutes.

Feb 2013 was close too...though I don't recall ever exceeding 4" in an hour between my measurements...I think maybe 3.5 was my max. Down in CT they certainly got more intense snow...6" per hour stuff. Jan 2015 early that morning I had 4" per hour as well in that crazy band.

I may be missing an event or two...I'd have to think more about it. But yeah, 8" is a pretty rare benchmark to reach for one hour totals....based on my personal experience above, I find that 4" per hour is a tough barrier to break through....values above that are rare. I've read that some storms out west have recorded 10" per hour stuff...orograpically enhanced though, like in the Sierras around Lake Tahoe.

In Bethel Maine in the March 2001 storm we measured 11 inches in roughly 70 minutes

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