HoarfrostHubb Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Actually, the higher latitude volcanoes have much less influence on stratosphere than the ones further south...so you probably want to go for the tropical volcanoes going wild if you are going down that road. Maybe Tip or James could write a sci-fi novel/story about manmade volcanism designed for the purpose of controlling the climate by some weenies. The antagonist could live in a secret mountain hideaway high in the Tolland massif and his evil plan is hatched after ingesting too much LESCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Maybe they were using StepheninCT snow data and then noticed a sharp decline in snow as he stopped reporting...but the models didn't know that and assumed it would continue. Multiple LL emoticons entered into the OLR equations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Maybe Tip or James could write a sci-fi novel/story about manmade volcanism designed for the purpose of controlling the climate by some weenies. The antagonist could live in a secret mountain hideaway high in the Tolland massif and his evil plan is hatched after ingesting too much LESCO It would be better if they collaborated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 They also took the worst case sea level rise change and ran with it in the article which for more attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Holy crap. The leaves are incredible! Can't believe it bloomed that fast there in CAD world. Didn't you get two feet of high water content snow? But the sled trailer is ready to roll! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not only that...do they not understand the climo of the region? I would figure this guy does since he's from around here. But playing devils advocate for a minute...lets assume we get extremely rapid warming in the next decade or two as they claim.... you could tack on 2F to any of those months I listed and you'd still have weeks of snow cover and huge snowstorms. Also, most of the warming is going to occur from overnight lows...stuff that has little effect on our snowfall. I have a hard time he actually believes what he says unless he really is pretty ignorant of our climo in winter. But I guarantee the computer model said snowfall will decrease by like 50-60% so that means it's going to happen in their mind. Don't most of the climate models point toward increased precipitation, especially in larger events? Where winter temps average well below 32, that may result in greater snowfall, at least for a few decades until RIC temps reach PWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 47 minutes ago, tamarack said: Don't most of the climate models point toward increased precipitation, especially in larger events? Where winter temps average well below 32, that may result in greater snowfall, at least for a few decades until RIC temps reach PWM. Yes, but I think part of the problem with basic climate models is they don't parse how the precipitation occurs very well. Like there's obviously an inverse correlation between average winter temperatures and snowfall for our area and the model probably knows that. But there's ALSO a positive correlation between seasonal precip and snowfall, and I'm not sure how well the models handle this part. In addition, a majority of the warming is from overnight lows...and a majority of that is from radiational cooling which the greenhouse gases have the highest impact on. As we all know, these are basically irrelevant to snow events. We know how much trouble NWP guidance has with snowfall (showing rain and 35 when it's actually snow and 31)...and those models are supposed to do it well. The climate models are probably a lot worse with this as everything is coarser and probably done with a lot of algorithmic assumptions when they project a particular winter climate 15 years into the future. Another problem with climate models is that they have proven to be particularly bad at projected changes temporally and spatially. I.E. they might figure out that temps rise in the northern hemisphere but they have been poor at saying exactly where...outside of the arctic....and when. Winter temps in the mid-latitudes have mostly stagnated the past 25-30 years while other seasons continue to warm. It makes it easy to be skeptical of claims of massive shifts in a small period of time in a specific place like New England or the Northeast U.S. if the above issues already discussed aren't convincing enough. And then what Ryan and Nick said about the quotes is right...they make these silly quotes about "telling your kids when it used to snow" and also emphasizing the worst case scenario...a scenario that even on their models is pretty unlikely. In the end, I think it ends up doing more damage to climate science because it gives reason to become skeptical of the scientists themselves when they say such things to the media....even if the rest of the research is pretty sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes, but I think part of the problem with basic climate models is they don't parse how the precipitation occurs very well. Like there's obviously an inverse correlation between average winter temperatures and snowfall for our area and the model probably knows that. But there's ALSO a positive correlation between seasonal precip and snowfall, and I'm not sure how well the models handle this part. In addition, a majority of the warming is from overnight lows...and a majority of that is from radiational cooling which the greenhouse gases have the highest impact on. As we all know, these are basically irrelevant to snow events. We know how much trouble NWP guidance has with snowfall (showing rain and 35 when it's actually snow and 31)...and those models are supposed to do it well. The climate models are probably a lot worse with this as everything is coarser and probably done with a lot of algorithmic assumptions when they project a particular winter climate 15 years into the future. Another problem with climate models is that they have proven to be particularly bad at projected changes temporally and spatially. I.E. they might figure out that temps rise in the northern hemisphere but they have been poor at saying exactly where...outside of the arctic....and when. Winter temps in the mid-latitudes have mostly stagnated the past 25-30 years while other seasons continue to warm. It makes it easy to be skeptical of claims of massive shifts in a small period of time in a specific place like New England or the Northeast U.S. if the above issues already discussed aren't convincing enough. And then what Ryan and Nick said about the quotes is right...they make these silly quotes about "telling your kids when it used to snow" and also emphasizing the worst case scenario...a scenario that even on their models is pretty unlikely. In the end, I think it ends up doing more damage to climate science because it gives reason to become skeptical of the scientists themselves when they say such things to the media....even if the rest of the research is pretty sound. Be careful, you'll be labeled a denier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 27 minutes ago, mreaves said: Be careful, you'll be labeled a denier! He had a good post. Deniers are terrible, but that misinformation spewed about is just as bad when policies are made around fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He had a good post. Deniers are terrible, but that misinformation spewed about is just as bad when policies are made around fear. It's an indictment of the media when these climate scientists feel like they need to produce these hyperbolic quotes that have nothing to do with the study at hand. The guy's study was about temperatures and sea level rise... the Globe focused on the worst case scenario from modeling and his quotes were just off. I get that it's hard to relate something that abstract like 0.7 degrees C to the public but there's gotta be a better way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: He had a good post. Deniers are terrible, but that misinformation spewed about is just as bad when policies are made around fear. Completely agree. I was thinking of the rant that Nikolai went on a while ago after someone questioned his prediction record cold and snow for all because of warming in the Arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 17 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Had it back in November. Awful. I had it a year ago this week ironically ... Norwalk I think it's called ... Mainly belly and below... In and out in 24 to 30 yours, with lingering apathy and/or disinterest in food in general for another 2 or 3 days more... Hopefully what you guys describe is that particular version just circling back around... cuz no mortal other than perhaps Idi Amin or Adolf Hitler deserves that schit certainly not again so soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 29 minutes ago, mreaves said: Completely agree. I was thinking of the rant that Nikolai went on a while ago after someone questioned his prediction record cold and snow for all because of warming in the Arctic. I'm still waiting for my roof to collapse from too much snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Yeah... okay. Buuuut... careful not to knee jerk spurn the findings of the climate folk/modeling, and/or make fun of it just the same. I think an open mind is the best approach ? That means one should not fear monger... which is unfortunately the plight of the modern concerned citizen, that they be faked out by fake news and/or histrionics that are routinely plied to garner ratings in the "Industrial Media Complex..." (roll-eyes.. if ur with me). However, that said ... it equally means that the truth of the warming climate shall/should not be denied; and that ... it can't warm forever and expect it not to begin to effect change in seasonal expectation ...even at our latitude... That's a reality that kind of gets lost in the din of those argument points.. And I don't accept the typical counter argument to that, being that we are talking 100 years ....blah blah ... we'll be dead anyway. That's inCREdibly irresponsible to Humanity - if the core impetus is time, not sure I see the purpose of spurning the findings. Inevitability is inevitability... The point of closing in on that destination is what is paramount. I suppose it's philosophically valid to argue for nihilism ... and stick a middle finger to the heavens for imposing finality to mortals, and party now - ... heh. Maybe if a some hapless soul wondering through the smoldering aftermath of scarcity and dystopian sloth comes across an epitaph of our times, he/she will read that sentiment and say, '...Meh, cant's say I blame them; we're all f anyway' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 2 hours ago, mreaves said: Be careful, you'll be labeled a denier! Already happened (though not recently, I think), by several people on the Climate Change sub-forum. Norwalk I think it's called The term I've heard for the beast is Norovirus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 ... also, "denier" I have a problem with that term's use when it comes to the subject matter at hand, and it's a matter of distinction... There are different 'forms' of denial. There's denying some finding in order to test the veracity of said conclusion... That's fine. That's scientific. Finding need to be tested, and corroborated by other people ...such that a consensus becomes undeniable. But that is not what is (apparently) happening with climate skepticism... It's not denial for the purpose....it's denial because folks can't seem to face it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PineHillsWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Kansas City game moved from 1:05 to 8:20 due to ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, tamarack said: Already happened (though not recently, I think), by several people on the Climate Change sub-forum. Norwalk I think it's called The term I've heard for the beast is Norovirus. yeah, I've heard it called Norovirus too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Finally back below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 1 hour ago, Lava Rock said: Finally back below freezing Wow took a while to get there. Going by MVL temps we were below freezing between 5-6am (12 hours ago)....now down in the teens. I can walk on top of the remaining snowpack. It couldn't get any more firm, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Drove Greenfield to St Johnsbury earlier, I can confirm there is no snow cover in VT outside of the Greens. It was shocking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Wow. Dodge city Kansas gets 1.45" of pure accretion ending as light snow on the NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Drove Greenfield to St Johnsbury earlier, I can confirm there is no snow cover in VT outside of the Greens. It was shocking! From the pic u posted this morning it looks like u have 2- 3" or so. More than that magical place known as God's country ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Since he won't apologize,, I apologize on his behalf. Sorry he offended you. Is your husband upset at him too? 13 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully you get some more mansnow to rebuild the base you lost. Only boys grown taller. If you wanna "man up", an open invitation to find snow. We'll grab an extra setup and we can head into the mountains together, take turns breaking trail. Let's see how we stack up, eh? Until then, keep looking into a computer screen, or out a window, and keep talking.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, ono said: Only boys grown taller. If you wanna "man up", an open invitation to find snow. We'll grab an extra setup and we can head into the mountains together, take turns breaking trail. Let's see how we stack up, eh? Until then, keep looking into a computer screen, or out a window, and keep talking.. I'd love to meet up, but I don't want to leave you behind in the glades or anything like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'd love to meet up, but I don't want to leave you behind in the glades or anything like that. You'll definitely leave me behind on your many laps in the glades because we don't ski glades. We ski the "woods" or the "trees" as glades are trail map markers. Seriously, though- open invitation. Come. Try. Last time we went out in the woods, a girl kept up pretty damn well for her first rodeo- better than most guys in the same situation. And one caveat- the volume of voice before has a strong positive correlation to the likelihood of a humbling outcome thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 46 minutes ago, ono said: You'll definitely leave me behind on your many laps in the glades because we don't ski glades. We ski the "woods" or the "trees" as glades are trail map markers. Seriously, though- open invitation. Come. Try. Last time we went out in the woods, a girl kept up pretty damn well for her first rodeo- better than most guys in the same situation. And one caveat- the volume of voice before has a strong positive correlation to the likelihood of a humbling outcome thereafter. I'd be bear meat. Been awhile since I hit the slopes. Hoping next season to try and get my son into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 A ski-off? In lieu of snow, thus place has become an 80s movie temporarily. Unfortunately the specter of a ski-off raising its head on the Internet is the whitest thing I'm likely to see for a couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 On 1/13/2017 at 0:32 AM, ono said: yeah, beat on vicarious chest watching models of the Sierra once-in-ten-year. But it's not so bad actually going up for a hike up a mountain ski that "4" of bullsh*t like a real man/woman and enjoy it. But we'll have none of that, here. Armchair, lift chair and car seats only, boys. sorry, but the "man snow" comment speaks to a boys clubby BS 'round here that just doesn't sit. Half the population doesn't really seem to have an interest in participating. We could call "man snow" just "snow" or " a lot of snow" Seems small, and I don't want to single anyone out... but there's hundreds of guys on this website and how many women? Maybe there's a reason they don't participate. Just a thought. The same reason conversational terms such as balls/Cojones has a positive connotation and p*ssy has a negative connotation. It's pervasive in today's world that when using gender related terms, man is good and woman is bad, or never as good. Welcome to the world of woman. It's an uphill battle for my gender in a male dominated society. Best advice, if you want to know if a thought or phrase concerning gender is ass backwards concerning gender- take whatever it was you were going to say and write it on a piece of paper. If you can't say it to your own wife or your own mother, or if you would never want a man to say it to your daughter, then that's a very good sign it should not be said to any other woman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 16.9 at least it feels like January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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