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Winter Banter & General Discussion/Observations

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Well you also have a general public that doesn't understand it.  So if the thermometer at their house says -9F, it's -9F when the forecast says lows 5-10F.  

I think in NNE the hollows are different than they are in SNE.  They are more localized in SNE where a large portion of the rural population in NNE lives in these "hollows" (i.e. not in the 2000-4000ft levels) as that's where the villages and towns were settled along the river valleys and drainages back in the 1700s/1800s.

Fake cold affects a larger percentage of the population up this way I guess is a way to put it.

But they are probably modeled more poorly than in "broader" valleys of SNE. The large differences in terrain in NNE make for bad data in regions of modeled terrain. 

I just learned in the last couple of weeks the reason behind something I already knew, that models suck at HIE. The reason is that because of all the terrain in that area, the GFS for instance thinks the surface is over 700 feet above HIE. So the raw models will tend to add something like 4 degrees to the surface temp (bringing down the parcel dry adiabatically).

Then you have MOS to fix some of those problems, but that only works at the points we have MOS. Otherwise, it's interpolated in between those points. Obviously not a perfect match.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

But they are probably modeled more poorly than in "broader" valleys of SNE. The large differences in terrain in NNE make for bad data in regions of modeled terrain. 

I just learned in the last couple of weeks the reason behind something I already knew, that models suck at HIE. The reason is that because of all the terrain in that area, the GFS for instance thinks the surface is over 700 feet above HIE. So the raw models will tend to add something like 4 degrees to the surface temp (bringing down the parcel dry adiabatically).

Then you have MOS to fix some of those problems, but that only works at the points we have MOS. Otherwise, it's interpolated in between those points. Obviously not a perfect match.

Real fake cold Mcgrath

C11cME7VIAEtj4u.jpg

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Well you also have a general public that doesn't understand it.  So if the thermometer at their house says -9F, it's -9F when the forecast says lows 5-10F.  

I think in NNE the hollows are different than they are in SNE.  They are more localized in SNE where a large portion of the rural population in NNE lives in these "hollows" (i.e. not in the 2000-4000ft levels) as that's where the villages and towns were settled along the river valleys and drainages back in the 1700s/1800s.

Fake cold affects a larger percentage of the population up this way I guess is a way to put it.

I'm just saying I don't see a huge deal busting cold on a boring weather night. I feel like the cold mongers are out in force with these temp busts. Like, "Ha....the NWS had me at 10F and I got down to -1F...they suck...yay cold!"  Just looks like a bunch of weenies getting their panties bunched up.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Johnno said:

Real, fake, faux, whatever you want to call it I froze my bag off yesterday morning in Bakersville,CT USA. Lol... just wish I had some type of thermo with me curious if it actually was -20, sure felt like it compared to Canton.

it doesn't matter the label it only matters to our pocketbooks and layers we need. I for one have a whole set of different building issues at -10 versus plus 5 but I know we radiate like hell at work next to Great Cedar swamp with a 10" snow cover.

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Johnno

Johnno

Posted
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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

it doesn't matter the label it only matters to our pocketbooks and layers we need. I for one have a whole set of different building issues at -10 versus plus 5 but I know we radiate like hell at work next to Great Cedar swamp with a 10" snow cover.

Yea pretty much tough going yesterday blowtorches and jump packs/ generators were the tools of choice 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

My car likes the warmer nights with wind better than the fake cold nights of -20F.  

Fake or not it's usually very nice to leave my house at -20F at 750ft and get out of the car at 0F ten minutes later at 1,500ft.  It really makes it feel warm at the ski resort haha.  You can immediately feel it when you step out.

That radiational cold where you are getting diamond dust is the instant nostril freeze where it hurts to take a deep breath.  The mixed atmosphere seems a lot less harsh on those days.

Have not seen that since moving out of Northern Maine.  The St. John Valley folks have a saying in French that translates roughly to, the cold comes down.  Most prevalent in valley locations at -30 or colder; never saw it while we lived in the back settlement, 450' higher than in town.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

For the record, temps on a night like last night are nearly impossible to "get right." 

The forecast obviously could've been better (night two is usually the better radiator than night one of a cold air mass), but it's just too hard to keep up with the local intricacies of the fake cold. On my drive home I went from +9 to -1 back to +13 all over the course of a mile or so. And those are all in the same grid point. How am I supposed to put that in a P&C?

I actually thought the zones read better last night, for coastal Cumberland (PWM) I think it read "Lows 1 to 9 above."

I had to update just about every hour to keep temps in line as they bounced in and out of clouds or a puff of wind.

That's been my experience - night one often has too much CAA while night two often decouples right at sunset, like it did yesterday.  Accordingly, I guessed I'd be 5F colder than the S. Franklin forecast for Monday morning and 10F colder for today.  Worked out closer to zero and 15 - c'est la vie.

 

Yeah I don't understand all reactions to local hollows being colder than modeled. No offense to them, but who cares in the grand scheme of things. Did life change because you were -2 instead of +9?

Bragging rights!  (of course)

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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6 minutes ago, tamarack said:

That's been my experience - night one often has too much CAA while night two often decouples right at sunset, like it did yesterday.  Accordingly, I guessed I'd be 5F colder than the S. Franklin forecast for Monday morning and 10F colder for today.  Worked out closer to zero and 15 - c'est la vie.

 

Yeah I don't understand all reactions to local hollows being colder than modeled. No offense to them, but who cares in the grand scheme of things. Did life change because you were -2 instead of +9?

Bragging rights!  (of course)

When models "feel" that return flow start aloft they like to stay warm and mixed, but in reality that weak WAA aloft can actually decouple you faster as it sets up an early inversion. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Good point. I've noticed that too. 

It's probably why the drop is so early in the evening too. Normally you need to really cool the surface to set up that inversion aloft and establish a decoupled boundary layer. With weak WAA aloft you already have the inversion and you begin from a decoupled starting point.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm just saying I don't see a huge deal busting cold on a boring weather night. I feel like the cold mongers are out in force with these temp busts. Like, "Ha....the NWS had me at 10F and I got down to -1F...they suck...yay cold!"  Just looks like a bunch of weenies getting their panties bunched up.

I don't think anyone was making a big deal out of it.  I certainly wasn't.  I think a couple of posters pointed it out and others made a big deal out of that.  I don't see what the big deal is pointing out a bust like that when the weather is boring.  I don't know what you would have done back in the 80s.  Sometimes we discussed mundane things like how thick the frost might be....lol

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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2 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

I don't think anyone was making a big deal out of it.  I certainly wasn't.  I think a couple of posters pointed it out and others made a big deal out of that.  I don't see what the big deal is pointing out a bust like that when the weather is boring.  I don't know what you would have done back in the 80s.  Sometimes we discussed mundane things like how thick the frost might be....lol

We would have gone wild over 3-6" events...that's what we did in the 1980s.

 

A 1-3" snowfall was serious discussion.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

I don't think anyone was making a big deal out of it.  I certainly wasn't.  I think a couple of posters pointed it out and others made a big deal out of that.  I don't see what the big deal is pointing out a bust like that when the weather is boring.  I don't know what you would have done back in the 80s.  Sometimes we discussed mundane things like how thick the frost might be....lol

Thank God for Atari and Nintendo.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm just saying I don't see a huge deal busting cold on a boring weather night. I feel like the cold mongers are out in force with these temp busts. Like, "Ha....the NWS had me at 10F and I got down to -1F...they suck...yay cold!"  Just looks like a bunch of weenies getting their panties bunched up.

Its true, just like I don't see what the big deal is when the high is forecast to be 50F in April and we mix out and its 62F instead.  Its just routine temp discussion. 

I mean I think anyone will notice or at least comment on a 10-degree bust in either direction.  You don't think you'd notice if your low was over 10F colder than expected?

I don't think anyone ever needs to call out the NWS for busting as we all realize how hard it is to forecast little nuances. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Have not seen that since moving out of Northern Maine.  The St. John Valley folks have a saying in French that translates roughly to, the cold comes down.  Most prevalent in valley locations at -30 or colder; never saw it while we lived in the back settlement, 450' higher than in town.

You talking about diamond dust?  We had some the other morning.  Fully starry sky with the moon out and crystals floating around and even accumulating on the car.  Feels almost like a freezing fog but you can see it in the headlights.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Its true, just like I don't see what the big deal is when the high is forecast to be 50F in April and we mix out and its 62F instead.  Its just routine temp discussion. 

I mean I think anyone will notice or at least comment on a 10-degree bust in either direction.  You don't think you'd notice if your low was over 10F colder than expected?

I don't think anyone ever needs to call out the NWS for busting as we all realize how hard it is to forecast little nuances. 

Did anyone call anyone out?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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3 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Wait........ the 80's were... THAT Bad????  I would have Died!  

 

 

Yes they were. Really the 14 winter stretch from 1978-1979 through 1991-1992 is unmatched in most of our region for its futility in snowfall. The ratters really out numbered the good winters...by about a 3 to 1 ratio.

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