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Winter Banter & General Discussion/Observations


ORH_wxman

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3 hours ago, Spanks45 said:

Question for the weather station gurus out there. I have a 10+ year old Vantage Pro 2. The anemometer has stopped transmitting data, the rain gauge has also stopped recently and I have not upgraded the temperature sensor yet. At this point, it is worth looking into getting a new unit? Not sure the wife would be happy with my spending $500+ on a new one. Thoughts on the Ambient Weather WS-1200-IP or the Davis 6250 Vantage Vue? Thanks!

Contact Davis about their refurb repairs. You send the whole station out to them and they fix whatever issues you have. Last I knew it was a little over $100 not including shipping. 

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this is kinda interesting...

AMS' recent report on the state of the climate ...

" A massive cold wave struck the entire eastern seaboard in February 2015, from Maine to Florida. The month ranked as one of the coldest and snowiest February on record for the region. Climate change, which has actually reduced the likelihood of such extreme cold waves in the North Atlantic due to rising temperatures, was not deemed responsible. Per the report, this was “a one-in-15-year event in terms of intensity and a one-in-64-year event in terms of duration.”

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16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this is kinda interesting...

AMS' recent report on the state of the climate ...

" A massive cold wave struck the entire eastern seaboard in February 2015, from Maine to Florida. The month ranked as one of the coldest and snowiest February on record for the region. Climate change, which has actually reduced the likelihood of such extreme cold waves in the North Atlantic due to rising temperatures, was not deemed responsible. Per the report, this was “a one-in-15-year event in terms of intensity and a one-in-64-year event in terms of duration.”

For New England itself it was definitely rarer on the return scale. It was a bit less intense further south. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

For New England itself it was definitely rarer on the return scale. It was a bit less intense further south. 

Couple things on that ...

One, a particularly astounding experience for me was the repeating snows storms with unusually cold temperatures. I believe there were two nearly back to back where temperatures along Rt 2 up here in northern Massachusetts hovered < 10 F during the duration of the snow event, and one of those we were still in the midst of 1/2 mi visibility with occasional reductions to mere feet in blowing snow, while the temperature was -1 F. That was the coldest combination of > than non-advisory level snow fall with temperature I had ever experienced; the nearest one was a +3 F with moderate crystals like fog mixed with blowing snow in western Michigan dating back to 1981 (under certain conditions, it can get so cold in a LE scenario that the 'streets' and convective nodules smear into a low dbz haze).

Second, there are layers of misconception among the lay-stay of society's population. Those with any care to venture an understanding that I have encountered actually intimated they believed that global warming (ironically) contributed to the pattern that caused that excessive winter expression.  I find that 'refreshing' that there are people out there that think at a deeper dimension than the ad nauseam "hot day ... must Global Warming" (unga-bunga); even though according to AMS, the scientific research doesn't support the idea that the cold month was in fact GW related.  interesting...

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18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Couple things on that ...

One, a particularly astounding experience for me was the repeating snows storms with unusually cold temperatures. I believe there were two nearly back to back where temperatures along Rt 2 up here in northern Massachusetts hovered < 10 F during the duration of the snow event, and one of those we were still in the midst of 1/2 mi visibility with occasional reductions to mere feet in blowing snow, while the temperature was -1 F. That was the coldest combination of > than non-advisory level snow fall with temperature I had ever experienced; the nearest one was a +3 F with moderate crystals like fog mixed with blowing snow in western Michigan dating back to 1981 (under certain conditions, it can get so cold in a LE scenario that the 'streets' and convective nodules smear into a low dbz haze).

Second, there are layers of misconception among the lay-stay of society's population. Those with any care to venture an understanding that I have encountered actually intimated they believed that global warming (ironically) contributed to the pattern that caused that excessive winter expression.  I find that 'refreshing' that there are people out there that think at a deeper dimension than the ad nauseam "hot day ... must Global Warming" (unga-bunga); even though according to AMS, the scientific research doesn't support the idea that the cold month was in fact GW related.  interesting...

Yeah. Attribution studies are generally pretty ambiguous on that type of stuff. Obviously the media headlines often exaggerate or flat out get the story wrong on that. 

At any rate, it's probably just a great example of the natural variability of our climate being orders of magnitude greater than the underlying warming trend on that type of time scale and geographic area. Like, we probably can't get our coldest year or coldest decade on record these days but we can still get our coldest month on record regionally or locally. 

What was so impressive about late January and February 2015 aside from the obvious cold and snow records, was the pattern itself that produced it. We almost had this perpetual lay stationary PNA ridge in the perfect spot for eastern New England. It would reload in the same spot multiple times before finally waning. The one time it didn't reload immediately and the rest of the CONUS torched, we got lucky on a little local cold nose of high pressure from Quebec and had a 60 hour overrunning snowstorm at 15-20F...while it was 60 in Chicago and near 70F in DC. I suppose in order to get 100" of snow in 3 weeks you need to catch a "break" like that...somehow Logan airport pulls off 24" of snow while the rest of the country bathes in a February spring for a couple days. 

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not sure if anything from 2/2015 can match the January 2-3rd 2014 snow event in terms of cold / wind combo 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KORH/2014/1/3/DailyHistory.html

Doubt I'll ever see a legit warning criteria snowstorm with temps hovering either side of 0 like that again in these parts. Those Obs from ORH are ridiculous .. multiple hours of temps below zero, wind chills below -20 and 1/2 - 3/4 mi visibility obs. 

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Just drove down to Boston from Central NH. Deep snowcover north of Concord NH.  Solid snowcover down to about Manchester/Nashua.  Snowcover diminishes to about a light coating in the Burlington/Woburn area.  South of Rt 128 there is nothing.  Nice to see some bare ground.  It's been since Novemeber for me....

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13 minutes ago, White Rain said:

Despite no large storms yet down this way we have a solid 4-5" of glacier pack here throughout the yard - it feels like solid ice. Wonder if much will melt with the up coming rain. How do the ice chances look for the coming system?

I doubt all of it will go. In fact probably not that much. We never warm sector in the upcoming storm. It's going to be cold 30s and rain...I suspect there may be a bit of ZR in the beginning but nothing too consequential. Higher elevations too. 

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24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I doubt all of it will go. In fact probably not that much. We never warm sector in the upcoming storm. It's going to be cold 30s and rain...I suspect there may be a bit of ZR in the beginning but nothing too consequential. Higher elevations too. 

of the particularly unredeeming kind, too -   ..I mean, the 18z FRH grid (NAM) actually has ALB's boundary layer trajectory back around to 350 degs aoa 36 hours ...indicative of a solid (secondary backside + ageostrophic) take over ...yet, 35 F - that's what they show for it at 50 mb off the deck - 35 F

wow. can't really draft up sore butt  regime with better panache than that right there.  It's probable that the tree tops to streets are 32 F but it's more likely that if so ...you're like 32.4, just perfectly a single quanta on the wrong side of the uncertainty principle enough not to ice - if that could have 'redeemed' the scenario at all...

Yes yes there is some smaller chance that if the NAM picked that out at all ..it could be a signal that the lowest 50 mb is accreting across the interior but not banking on that by any stretch.

pretty much a 31 on Mt Greylock to 42 at Logan type of event...

You know, I said it back then... about February 2015: that was like 300% ... take the next two years, with 0 snow, and put that in the mixer ...divide by three, we're at 100% of our seasonal norms spanning that three years. subtle irony there... But, we love our humdingers though because of the awesome spectacle and wonder... I guess the fine print on the manual says it can go both ways.. 

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2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Just drove down to Boston from Central NH. Deep snowcover north of Concord NH.  Solid snowcover down to about Manchester/Nashua.  Snowcover diminishes to about a light coating in the Burlington/Woburn area.  South of Rt 128 there is nothing.  Nice to see some bare ground.  It's been since Novemeber for me....

Noticed the same driving back to Lowell today. Pack is dense and about 12-16" deep at the cabin, and only about an inch here in Lowell. This has been a great winter north of Concord. We skied 5 days last week on natural snow. Was only bad one day (Tuesday), by Wednesday it was powder/packed powder. Hopefully tonight/tomorrows precip is mostly frozen.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice!  Good convergence there.

lol yeah, it was a real **** show honestly, snow started way later than expected, but lasted much longer than expected too.  Dry air delayed the onset by about 3 hours, and caused a bunch of crazy p-type stuff, had a mixture of ip/zr/s all at once for like 60 to 90 minutes, once it saturated it poured nice small to medium sized dendrites with little wind through the morning into the mid afternoon. Everyone's forecas busted bigly, including mine.  

 

 

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  2017010212.71802.skewt.parc.gif

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Very icy this morning.  Steps driveway, secondary roads were a mess.  I took it slow on Route 2--in part because I was behind salters much of the way.  So, I didn't experience any slickness.  Car was reading 32 or lower from home until about 190.  It warmed from there.

 

It's currently 30.6* at the Pit, and I'm curious as to how my drive up to Maine at 5:00p.m. will be.

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