Winter Banter & General Discussion/Observations

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What site did you get this from? Doesn't look like climod and the regular threadex site doesn't have snowfall.

NWS NOW data

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Meanwhile lots of changes in 12Z GFS.

the changes began in earnest/demonstrable in the 00z run - ...continued in the 06z and this run appears continuing along a trend to dissolve the previous multi-cycle, multi-model type appeal (which featured the weak ejection through the ridge ...followed by the stem-wound midwest deal)

[ORH_wxman]

Cutter completely canceled on that run...that would be great news for ski areas.

[dryslot]

Paste job in the mountains, Northern Maine gets another 12"+ that run.........lol

[Cold Miser]

We had our "snow meeting" here at the town today.  50+ guys with our director discussing the snow clearing operations for the season.  I have a new found respect for the guys who plow the roads, and the sh*t they have to put up with.  Definitely not the safest task in the middle of a raging storm.  

[WinterWolf]

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I don't think you have to worry up there, have a fantastic time.

Thank You :-)!!   Honestly though, I've been sledding up there for 22 years, and Decembers are always a gamble up there.  

 

I've seen it where they get the snow(sometimes lots like now) early in December, and right around the time I'm ready to take off to go, it gets warm and Rains like crazy, and wipes it out.  That has happened quite a few times over the past 22 years.  Or they just don't get the snow before xmas some years.   Like I said, December is always a gamble even up there to see whether they get the snow(enough to ride) or not by the Holidays.

 

Last two years I haven't been able to go up over the holiday break...hoping this year it works out.

[HimoorWx]

Finally took the plunge and bought a snowblower!  So if there is no snow this year, feel free to hold me personally responsible.  However, I do have a good track record - bought snowshoes in late January 2013.

On another note, there are some things you just can't make up.  One of my responsibilities at work is running exams for law students.  The last exam in December is on the 19th, and we always tell students to not make travel plans until at least late on the following day just in case it snows.  Here is the response I got from one student explaining why she ignored the advice:  "While I am also aware that finals may need to take place on December 20 in the event of snow, I have also been told that there has been no need for rescheduling in the recent past."  And, she wants to be a lawyer . . .

[OceanStWx]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

since we all know that climate tends to follow along the geographic delineation of state lines ... it's always amazed me that N maine could be snowing prolifically like it were Canada or something when it's clearly in New England... 

 

also, ...you guys in the NWS should be pushing to NOT have Logan Airport's highly marine contamination, if not out right guided, statistics included in 'southern new england's'  "climatology" ... there's red tape; then there's just dicktart illogical hand-me-down bullcrap. 

I mean I get the angst, but there are limitations to what BOX can do.

Since climate observations are tied to the ASOS, ideally we want to keep snow obs as close as possible to the ASOS. Let's say 2 miles, that's the inner range ring. You basically have Winthrop (where there is a Coop already), East Boston, some of Chelsea, and a small part of Southie.

Stretch it to 5 miles (outer ring), and half the range ring is water. And is much of the other half really representative of what's happening at the ASOS? Even 5 miles takes the birthday boy out of the running with his new place.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean I get the angst, but there are limitations to what BOX can do.

Since climate observations are tied to the ASOS, ideally we want to keep snow obs as close as possible to the ASOS. Let's say 2 miles, that's the inner range ring. You basically have Winthrop (where there is a Coop already), East Boston, some of Chelsea, and a small part of Southie.

Stretch it to 5 miles (outer ring), and half the range ring is water. And is much of the other half really representative of what's happening at the ASOS? Even 5 miles takes the birthday boy out of the running with his new place.

Then new locationS for ASOS should be explored... 

The point of climatology is 'where it affects people' - or perhaps that's my dim-witted impression.  

I guess we can get into the old 'if a tree falls in the woods' type philosophy but notice how those nice circles we  see there have nearly have their surface area over water abyssal plain - no one cares there. 

Also, the idea that downtown Cambridge. ..even Boston Common can be 89 with a feeble west wind while it's 67 at Logan with a feeble sea breeze happens frequently enough to just flat out cause a lie about the dailies, and subsequently the 'climate' of eastern zonal Mass.  

Granted, a LOT of the time...draw a line from PWD to LGA and any point east of there should in reality be construed as a marine/continental fusion zone of some sort but ...that's a different debate. 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Then new locationS for ASOS should be explored... 

The point of climatology is 'where it affects people' - or perhaps that's my dim-witted impression.  

I guess we can get into the old 'if a tree falls in the woods' type philosophy but notice how those nice circles we  see there have nearly have their surface area over water abyssal plain - no one cares there. 

Also, the idea that downtown Cambridge. ..even Boston Common can be 89 with a feeble west wind while it's 67 at Logan with a feeble sea breeze happens frequently enough to just flat out cause a lie about the dailies, and subsequently the 'climate' of eastern zonal Mass.  

Granted, a LOT of the time...draw a line from PWD to LGA and any point east of there should in reality be construed as a marine/continental fusion zone of some sort but ...that's a different debate. 

Well the ASOS won't be moved because it's there for aviation interests. And that's where the money is. If a private citizen wants to pony up the dough for a station that can be done.

But that's the reason why the NWS fills in with Coops. There's one in JP to cover the "inland" Boston climate.

[OceanStWx]

It goes back to what Will and I were discussing last night. When the FAA cut back on obs, and the NWS reorganized, we lost the ability to do widespread high quality obs. 

ASOS/AWOS got installed at airports to replace humans, and thus became the go to for climate reporting.

[tamarack]

7 hours ago, dryslot said:

12" yesterday, 12"+ more last night into today, What an awesome start up that way, Nice visibility.......Not

The audit team that was in Ft. Kent and the Allagash Tues-Wed had all sorts of fun.  The group I was with got no farther north than Seboomook, where we found 4-5" yesterday.  That area probably got 6"+ overnight; Pittston Farm needs a good snow winter, as they'll host scads of sledders if that happens.

Had about 3/4" of IP/SN 9-midnight before the rain (about 1") took over.  2nd low 30s RA event in 48 hr.  At least it's doing something, and the cold will come.

Edit:  Forgot to welcome Jerry to the over-60s club.  Happy birthday!

[dryslot]

The audit team that was in Ft. Kent and the Allagash Tues-Wed had all sorts of fun.  The group I was with got no farther north than Seboomook, where we found 4-5" yesterday.  That area probably got 6"+ overnight; Pittston Farm needs a good snow winter, as they'll host scads of sledders if that happens.

Had about 3/4" of IP/SN 9-midnight before the rain (about 1") took over.  2nd low 30s RA event in 48 hr.  At least it's doing something, and the cold will come.

Pittston Farms is always on my lunch destination when riding the Jackman Northeast Carry corridor it's a great area

[powderfreak]

Looks like Quebec is doing quite well too... this is Le Massif ski area on the shores of the St Lawrence River.  Similar latitude to Fort Kent, ME.

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Looks like Quebec is doing quite well too... this is Le Massif ski area on the shores of the St Lawrence River.  Similar latitude to Fort Kent, ME.

 

Le massif is massif.

[Typhoon Tip]

i'm sure that ASOS is important for aviation.  that much is not in dispute. 

but media and officiation alike espousing the high temperature in Boston is felacious. 

we can cause it out as x-y-z reason for that being the case but it's always wrong and always will be so long as that practice continues - 

it's just human's making rules and policies - there's no cosmological physical equation that proves that Logan has to be the 'official' anything.  i just i don't get that argument - those are all excuses.  public pony up?  how about the government take f heads out of arses - it's not going to cost jack crap feed the JP number if that's what it takes.   other than what it might mean to aviation ... that bears no relevance to human experience (unless the plane nose dives from icing hahhaha) j/k.  humans need to fix it! period. the world is what we make it.  

[OceanStWx]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i'm sure that ASOS is important for aviation.  that much is not in dispute. 

but media and officiation alike espousing the high temperature in Boston is felacious. 

we can cause it out as x-y-z reason for that being the case but it's always wrong and always will be so long as that practice continues - 

it's just human's making rules and policies - there's no cosmological physical equation that proves that Logan has to be the 'official' anything.  i just i don't get that argument - those are all excuses.  public pony up?  how about the government take f heads out of arses - it's not going to cost jack crap feed the JP number if that's what it takes.   other than what it might mean to aviation ... that bears no relevance to human experience (unless the plane nose dives from icing hahhaha) j/k.  humans need to fix it! period. the world is what we make it.  

But what makes JP or Brighton or West Roxbury anymore Boston that East Boston or Southie? The airport is where it is, and the ASOS is the official temp. Snow will always be tied to that. Not to mention there are parts of JP that are over 100 feet higher than any former measuring location for BOS. That stuff doesn't fly in the climate record either.

Nobody complains about ORH being 3+ miles away and 500 feet higher than the center of town.

Air safety is the primary function of the ASOSs. I would prefer my pilot knowing what the crosswinds are like on runway 4R than the real feel temperature in Allston.

But seriously, AFN is privately owned. So if somebody wants it badly enough they can get their hands on some state of the art observing (cough, Brian, cough). 

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

But what makes JP or Brighton or West Roxbury anymore Boston that East Boston or Southie? The airport is where it is, and the ASOS is the official temp. Snow will always be tied to that. Not to mention there are parts of JP that are over 100 feet higher than any former measuring location for BOS. That stuff doesn't fly in the climate record either.

Nobody complains about ORH being 3+ miles away and 500 feet higher than the center of town.

Air safety is the primary function of the ASOSs. I would prefer my pilot knowing what the crosswinds are like on runway 4R than the real feel temperature in Allston.

But seriously, AFN is privately owned. So if somebody wants it badly enough they can get their hands on some state of the art observing (cough, Brian, cough). 

well...let's think about it geographically.  the center of those circles would embody a greater, more 'realistic' population circumvallate if it were in JP, and would also include those other locations... the way it is now, half of it is over water. JP would move that west.  ideally, ASOS should be moved and have a separate aviation ob that's useful to their needs - 

i'm also less concerned about 'snow' per say in this conversation.  snow totals are one variable in climate.   

"not to mention there are parts of JP that are over 100 feet higher than any former measuring location for BOS. That stuff doesn't fly in the climate record either." ...OH really, what about Worcester... 

no, sorry - 'the world is what we make it'   we're dancing around the truth that the obs 'for Boston' are felacious as they are now. 

having said all that, i bet if we get down to it ...no thermometer method is truly fair to science; i just see Boston's as particularly egregious in that regard.

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well...let's think about it geographically.  the center of those circles would embody a greater, more 'realistic' population circumvallate if it were in JP, and would also include those other locations... the way it is now, half of it is over water. JP would move that west.  ideally, ASOS should be moved and have a separate aviation ob that's useful to their needs - 

i'm also less concerned about 'snow' per say in this conversation.  snow totals are one variable in climate.   

"not to mention there are parts of JP that are over 100 feet higher than any former measuring location for BOS. That stuff doesn't fly in the climate record either." ...OH really, what about Worcester... 

no, sorry - 'the world is what we make it'   we're dancing around the truth that the obs 'for Boston' are felacious as they are now. 

having said all that, i bet if we get down to it ...no thermometer method is truly fair to science; i just see Boston's as particularly egregious in that regard.

Therein lies a problem. Nobody is going to pay for two ASOS-like pieces of equipment in Boston proper. 

And regarding ORH, obs haven't moved more than 14 feet in elevation since 1946. As far as NCEI (NCDC) is concerned ORH from 1892 to 1965 is a separate observation site.

And you keep saying the BOS temperature record is fallacious, but the temperature is valid for part of the city. No different than obs from the western part of the city being "off" for people in the Seaport. Kevin's temps are representative of his area of Tolland, but just down the road could be something entirely different. But all weather is local, and it's not like the TV mets and BOX don't know that Brookline will be warmer than the airport. 

It's an absolute rarity that you get a KNYC, plopped down in the middle of the city with no aviation interest. 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Therein lies a problem. Nobody is going to pay for two ASOS-like pieces of equipment in Boston proper. 

And regarding ORH, obs haven't moved more than 14 feet in elevation since 1946. As far as NCEI (NCDC) is concerned ORH from 1892 to 1965 is a separate observation site.

And you keep saying the BOS temperature record is fallacious, but the temperature is valid for part of the city. No different than obs from the western part of the city being "off" for people in the Seaport. Kevin's temps are representative of his area of Tolland, but just down the road could be something entirely different. But all weather is local, and it's not like the TV mets and BOX don't know that Brookline will be warmer than the airport. 

It's an absolute rarity that you get a KNYC, plopped down in the middle of the city with no aviation interest. 

in terms of degree of error, as to how the temperature affects population, using Logan is "MORE" fallacious in that regard.  Yes it is. It's not debatable. Sorry. That location is on a peninsula that sticks out over termination waters of the Labrodor Current, and should not reflect the "official" high temperature in Boston - particularly in the spring and summer.  Nor do I agree it's valid for very much of the city unless you mean the back-bay area... those neighborhoods on the other side of the tunnel - haha, guess we need three ASOS'

I did say that exact, precise aspect: no thermometer location is perfect ...  However, having said that, Boston's as is, is particularly egregious.  That's all..

One of these times, it's going to be 101, 103, 89 at Logan, and Boston's going to miss a heat wave that fills ERs with stressed out people... nice.

I'm ducking out on this conversation.  I'm not going to see this from any other perspective so it's moot to continue. 

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

One of these times, it's going to be 101, 103, 89 at Logan, and Boston's going to miss a heat wave that fills ERs with stressed out people... nice.

Complete weenie argument.

The ASOS is a data point, not a forecast. The forecast won't say 89 in the western part of the city, BOX and TV mets won't be briefing anyone that it will be 89 in the western parts of the city. IF they do, then sure call bust. But the location of the ASOS has nothing to do with the impacts or preparations for them.

How often do you see Noyes get on TV and say, "well BOS is 33 and +RA, so nothing to worry about from this storm." The forecast would be for snow inland, and he would be tracking the RA/SN line on radar. 

And you are right, it's moot because the ASOS and climate location aren't being moved anytime soon.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Complete weenie argument.

The ASOS is a data point, not a forecast. The forecast won't say 89 in the western part of the city, BOX and TV mets won't be briefing anyone that it will be 89 in the western parts of the city. IF they do, then sure call bust. But the location of the ASOS has nothing to do with the impacts or preparations for them.

How often do you see Noyes get on TV and say, "well BOS is 33 and +RA, so nothing to worry about from this storm." The forecast would be for snow inland, and he would be tracking the RA/SN line on radar. 

And you are right, it's moot because the ASOS and climate location aren't being moved anytime soon.

okay, i will indulge ...just this time - everything you've said has logic flaws in it:

Complete weenie argument."  ... Okay...if you need to call it something, by all means... don't know what that's supposed be angled at me for; you are missing the point.  101, 103, 89 is not a heat wave, when 99.99 someodd percent of the population in that case experiences one. That's the point. 

The ASOS is a data point, not a forecast." ... Wtf where is that coming from?  and why are you saying that to me?  "The forecast won't say 89 in the western part of the city, BOX and TV mets won't be briefing anyone that it will be 89 in the western parts of the city. IF they do, then sure call bust. But the location of the ASOS has nothing to do with the impacts or preparations for them. "  I never said anything about forecast, or even insinuated ASOS has anything to do with prognostication - really.. Read closer.  

How often do you see Noyes get on TV and say, "well BOS is 33 and +RA, so nothing to worry about from this storm." The forecast would be for snow inland, and he would be tracking the RA/SN line on radar. "  Irrelevant!   The point all along was improperly representing

And you are right, it's moot because the ASOS and climate location aren't being moved anytime soon.  -- when because of every thing I  (and by the way, a lot of refereed Mets) have said, they should be.  Okay, beat the company drum. 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Late to the party but Happy Birthday Jerry!

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

okay, i will indulge ...just this time - everything you've said has logic flaws in it:

Complete weenie argument."  ... Okay...if you need to call it something, by all means... don't know what that's supposed be angled at me for; you are missing the point.  101, 103, 89 is not a heat wave, when 99.99 someodd percent of the population in that case experiences one. That's the point. 

The ASOS is a data point, not a forecast." ... Wtf where is that coming from?  and why are you saying that to me?  "The forecast won't say 89 in the western part of the city, BOX and TV mets won't be briefing anyone that it will be 89 in the western parts of the city. IF they do, then sure call bust. But the location of the ASOS has nothing to do with the impacts or preparations for them. "  I never said anything about forecast, or even insinuated ASOS has anything to do with prognostication - really.. Read closer.  

How often do you see Noyes get on TV and say, "well BOS is 33 and +RA, so nothing to worry about from this storm." The forecast would be for snow inland, and he would be tracking the RA/SN line on radar. "  Irrelevant!   The point all along was improperly representing

And you are right, it's moot because the ASOS and climate location aren't being moved anytime soon.  -- when because of every thing I  (and by the way, a lot of refereed Mets) have said, they should be.  Okay, beat the company drum. 

 

This is clearly a hot button issue for you. But the ASOS is not going to be moved because some people out by Fenway think they are being cheated a few degrees. The ASOS is there for keeping BOS flights running.  Is it a crappy location for most of the population of Boston and near suburbs? Yes. But what does it really matter? For some designation that 3 days equals a heat wave? 

It's not some deep gov't conspiracy, or party line I'm toeing. You yourself said that someday BOS will go 101, 103, 89 and we'll miss a heat wave. But we won't. The forecast will show a heat wave, and whether or not the airport officially hits one won't matter one bit when it comes to aid, impacts, cooling stations, etc. 

You said that humans can fix the problem, and you're right, all we have to do is say, "BOS hit 89 degrees today, but it was much hotter away from the water" 

You treat it like it's not a real temperature. It's probably more representative of downtown Boston than something farther west. I mean 4/21 BOS was almost 20 degrees warmer than JP, what do we do with that ob? In May JP got to 97, BOS 92. I mean it's hot either way for New England. I don't think the fact that the ASOS only hit 92 meant that public health officials were less prepare to deal with heat.

[CapturedNature]

13 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Late to the party but Happy Birthday Jerry!

Me too...Happy Birthday fellow December baby!

[OSUmetstud]

 

Must move higher!  Lol. Probably about a 3 inch difference between 80 m where i am in st. Johns to 200 m out mt. Pearl/mt. Carson/Paradise.

[Typhoon Tip]

53 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

 

Must move higher!  Lol. Probably about a 3 inch difference between 80 m where i am in st. Johns to 200 m out mt. Pearl/mt. Carson/Paradise.

Are you guys cashing in this autumn in general though?  seems like i keep seeing wound up system up that way - 

[OSUmetstud]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Are you guys cashing in this autumn in general though?  seems like i keep seeing wound up system up that way - 

Weve seen a couple inches of snow.  But it was very wet and warm, almost 10 inches of rain in November, good for second warmest and 5th wettest november since records began in 1942.  

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

Weve seen a couple inches of snow.  But it was very wet and warm, almost 10 inches of rain in November, good for second warmest and 5th wettest november since records began in 1942.  

ha, gotcha... good storm frequency; wrong side of the front (so to speak)..  Just needed more cold air -

[OSUmetstud]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

ha, gotcha... good storm frequency; wrong side of the front (so to speak)..  Just needed more cold air -

Yeah im hopeful for december, looks solid for us to cash in.