Jebman Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 On 12/7/2016 at 4:23 PM, WxWatcher007 said: NOOOO JEB NOOO STEP BACK FROM THE LEDGE RIGHT NOW! WE CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE YOU! There is hope for a decent winter in Washington. I am a realist, BUT I NEVER GIVE UP HOPE. Get those shovels ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Lots of Darwin Award candidates out there on the roads this morning. Wait, you mean freezing rain makes the roads slippery? And 4WD doesn't help? Who knew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 49F in Yuma. Had a mini dust storm yesterday afternoon and cross-wind was trying to blow my vehicle into the next lane. Good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Dropping this here to echo a comment I made and Eskimo made in the event thread, the Canadian really did pretty great with this at long range (stayed with the colder and wetter solution ) and rgem did great close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 Lol. We all love winter weather until we have to go somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: Dropping this here to echo a comment I made and Eskimo made in the event thread, the Canadian really did pretty great with this at long range (stayed with the colder and wetter solution ) and rgem did great close in. I know it's fashionable to complain mightily about the models, especially if they don't show what people want to see, but it's really incredible how good they've become. This storm was advertised 8+ days out for the Fri/Sat timeframe in a VERY difficult forecasting environment when many of the components that made up this storm did not even exist. To varying degrees, they all said there was going to be a borderline storm right here in the mid-Atlantic and wavered critical components like the boundary, low placements, timing, etc... by small deviations throughout the week. Very impressive, especially with the progressive flow regime the CONUS is under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 I have reservations in Canaan Valley for New Years, really hoping for them to get some snow. This pattern hasn't been friendly even to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 For the first time that I can ever remember, the 40 pound bag of ice melter from Lowe's did absolutely nothing on the cast iron frozen stuff on my driveway. I put the stuff down at 11:30 am this morning and it didn't melt anything. The temperature for many hours has been 32 to 33 back and forth. You'd think it is -40 F due to the lack of slush. Very strange. Safe Step dual blend ice melter. sodium chloride magnesium chloride hexahydrate Corrosion inhibitor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 6 more shopping days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 1 hour ago, H2O said: 6 more shopping days We made the mistake of going out yesterday, have done all our shopping online and the "Elves" have been delivering packages. We needed some last minute items for my oldest daughters spirit week at school. You know Christmas PJ's, ugly sweater, elf items ect... Never again I told her! If she wants to dress up she needs to get me a list to order off of Amazon in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 7 years!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 7 years!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 On 12/17/2016 at 11:26 AM, das said: I know it's fashionable to complain mightily about the models, especially if they don't show what people want to see, but it's really incredible how good they've become. This storm was advertised 8+ days out for the Fri/Sat timeframe in a VERY difficult forecasting environment when many of the components that made up this storm did not even exist. To varying degrees, they all said there was going to be a borderline storm right here in the mid-Atlantic and wavered critical components like the boundary, low placements, timing, etc... by small deviations throughout the week. Very impressive, especially with the progressive flow regime the CONUS is under. Nice try, but it's falling on deaf ears. The way folks here live and die by each model run's output leads them to believe the models suck when they see inconsistencies. It gives them something to complain about forgetting what they are viewing is modeled solns (guidance), not deterministic scenarios, which is always wrong to some degree. Turns out to be a rather miserable hobby for them, esp this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 For the record, I was praising the modeling of the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: For the record, I was praising the modeling of the last event. I'm always amazed by how well weather is modeled. I can't even begin to imagine what goes into developing a program that complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I'm always amazed by how well weather is modeled. I can't even begin to imagine what goes into developing a program that complex. I feel bad for the mathematicians who invested their lives for us to be able to do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 13 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I'm always amazed by how well weather is modeled. I can't even begin to imagine what goes into developing a program that complex. Very few people do understand. The atmospheric physics and chemistry involved is profoundly complex, dynamic and chaotic. Understanding that to any useful capability alone is noteworthy. Then turning that understanding into code is equally complex and impressive. Sitting that on top of a profoundly complex infrastructure layer only adds to that. To get a very small peek, take a look at this deck from the integrated team trying to successfully model the effects of the MJO as it encounters the maritime continent. This is not turning the MJO into code, it's simply one small stressor on the MJO and the discussion is distilled down to it's simplest form, a 20 page slide deck. 2.2_Vintzileos.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 9 minutes ago, BTRWx said: I feel bad for the mathematicians who invested their lives for us to be able to do this. Don't. Most of them love it, can't believe they get paid to do this and are big weather nerds themselves. Some even lurk around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Is it just me, or does the Para GFS have lower resolution than the current operational GFS? I compared both on Tropical Tidbits, and it makes me wonder if it's being "downgraded". I hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 42 minutes ago, isohume said: Nice try, but it's falling on deaf ears. The way folks here live and die by each model run's output leads them to believe the models suck when they see inconsistencies. It gives them something to complain about forgetting what they are viewing is modeled solns (guidance), not deterministic scenarios, which is always wrong to some degree. Turns out to be a rather miserable hobby for them, esp this time of year. Started following the models in 96 when anything after day 3 was quite often a crap-shoot so where they stand now is like night to day from 20 years ago. The accuracy they now display on the large scale patterns @15+ days as well as the smaller scale features is mind boggling. Have to chuckle when I think about how many of our posters would have handled the models then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 27 minutes ago, das said: Don't. Most of them love it, can't believe they get paid to do this and are big weather nerds themselves. Some even lurk around here. I'm referring more to the founders from before our time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 35 minutes ago, das said: Very few people do understand. The atmospheric physics and chemistry involved is profoundly complex, dynamic and chaotic. Understanding that to any useful capability alone is noteworthy. Then turning that understanding into code is equally complex and impressive. Sitting that on top of a profoundly complex infrastructure layer only adds to that. To get a very small peek, take a look at this deck from the integrated team trying to successfully model the effects of the MJO as it encounters the maritime continent. This is not turning the MJO into code, it's simply one small stressor on the MJO and the discussion is distilled down to it's simplest form, a 20 page slide deck. 2.2_Vintzileos.pdf I thought this was going to be a bunch of code. I love indulging myself with such presentations! Thanks for sharing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Anyone who knows what model accuracy was like 20 years ago should be amazed at how far we have come. Some have unrealistic expectations. Others want to believe they suck when things look as bad as right now to give them hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 Weathersbuff trolling NYC now saying no snow for coast but interior will do ok. He is a broken record. And wrong if he thinks interior PA will do well in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Weathersbuff trolling NYC now saying no snow for coast but interior will do ok. He is a broken record. And wrong if he thinks interior PA will do well in this pattern. If he is talking Erie, who will probably cash in on some lake effect, as interior then he would be right. Otherwise I think you have to look at upstate New York as the farthest south you will probably see anything meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 49 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Weathersbuff trolling NYC now saying no snow for coast but interior will do ok. He is a broken record. And wrong if he thinks interior PA will do well in this pattern. Since weather isn't worth talking about I'm considering going on an epic wxbuff trolling spree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Since weather isn't worth talking about I'm considering going on an epic wxbuff trolling spree. A glance at the 10-day forecast for Carbondale, PA shows no snow in the forecast with highs in the 40s. Epic, epic winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Weathersbuff trolling NYC now saying no snow for coast but interior will do ok. He is a broken record. And wrong if he thinks interior PA will do well in this pattern. I can't tell if he's trolling though or just dense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 I'm still cracking up over "lice in ball hair" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 19, 2016 Share Posted December 19, 2016 If we have to deal with a bad pattern i will make it so we don't also have to deal with a bad poster. At least in the disco thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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