December Banter Thread

[gymengineer]

57 minutes ago, mattie g said:

It's the bold part, but it's also the information at our fingertips and the ability to get down about something that may have never had a chance in hell of occurring except on long-range model output. SO many of us have been there and done that for so long that any wonder and surprise is gone.

Yeah, I get it. I did enjoy the first inch of snow in 08/09 (late January) and 11/12 (late January) even though both were tainted events. That first inch in late January 2013 was fun too. Of course, I know we're definitely not guaranteed anything this weekend with still 2.5 more days of bad trending to go  

[ErinInTheSky]

I'm still getting used to what is "bad" and "good" here. Is this season really starting all that poorly that everyone seems to be in a bad mood? Should we have had snow by now?

[ErinInTheSky]

To put it into my own perspective, I am a huge hurricane season buff... so for other tropical weather lovers, is not having snow by now like not having a hurricane by July, or not having a hurricane by mid August?

 

I know that most of the tropical weather forums I am involved in tend to have your doomsayers in July when we don't have a storm by then (normal), but then if it gets to August without one, people really start to melt down.

[smokeybandit]

7 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I'm still getting used to what is "bad" and "good" here. Is this season really starting all that poorly that everyone seems to be in a bad mood? Should we have had snow by now?

No, snow isn't that common this time of year.  But when the models somewhat consistently show it on "not fantasy land" runs, it gets the winter weather juices flowing

[Lowershoresadness]

so it won't snow until 2021. Mappy install a heater for the pool and Bob Chill put on your Terps thong and lets have a Mid Atlantic Hot tub club.

[gymengineer]

20 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I'm still getting used to what is "bad" and "good" here. Is this season really starting all that poorly that everyone seems to be in a bad mood? Should we have had snow by now?

I think it's more that there was hope, suggested by LR modeling, that we'd get on the board this winter earlier than the past two. Especially with this concern that we're not going to have a back-loaded winter, people are kind of anxious to see it snow in the first half. 

As far as winters in this area, they vary by a huge amount season to season. Here's a quick chart for you to peruse-- monthly snow data out of IAD, which is much closer to your climo than DCA: http://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/iadsnow.pdf

Before the past three seasons, the ongoing categorization of winters here was "feast or famine." Basically, it was the idea that we suffer through like 5 or 6 crappy winters and then are rewarded by one all-time great winter. Repeat. (I always thought that applied more to urban areas--- the suburbs had a buch of near average snowfall winters that were 'famine' winters at DCA.) But the last three seasons kind of threw that out of the window with one huge snow-total one (13/14), followed by a very good but not top tier one (14/15), followed by a mild winter punctuated by an epic blizzard which made our snow totals above average once again (15/16).

[BxEngine]

4 hours ago, stormtracker said:

We're unraveling.  

You guys too? I can send metsfan to cheer you up?

[H2O]

7 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

You guys too? I can send metsfan to cheer you up?

 

[BxEngine]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

 

Kinda wish an orca ate you while at sea world

[WxUSAF]

First measurable snow last year IMBY was January 17. Just sayin'.

[ErinInTheSky]

1 hour ago, gymengineer said:

I think it's more that there was hope, suggested by LR modeling, that we'd get on the board this winter earlier than the past two. Especially with this concern that we're not going to have a back-loaded winter, people are kind of anxious to see it snow in the first half. 

As far as winters in this area, they vary by a huge amount season to season. Here's a quick chart for you to peruse-- monthly snow data out of IAD, which is much closer to your climo than DCA: http://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/iadsnow.pdf

Before the past three seasons, the ongoing categorization of winters here was "feast or famine." Basically, it was the idea that we suffer through like 5 or 6 crappy winters and then are rewarded by one all-time great winter. Repeat. (I always thought that applied more to urban areas--- the suburbs had a buch of near average snowfall winters that were 'famine' winters at DCA.) But the last three seasons kind of threw that out of the window with one huge snow-total one (13/14), followed by a very good but not top tier one (14/15), followed by a mild winter punctuated by an epic blizzard which made our snow totals above average once again (15/16).

Huh.

 

Doesn't seem like a quiet or nil December is all that uncommon here.

 

What the heck is that trace snowfall in July and August 06-07?

[Bob Chill]

15 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Huh.

 

Doesn't seem like a quiet or nil December is all that uncommon here.

 

What the heck is that trace snowfall in July and August 06-07?

Decembers usually are pretty tame but there are other reasons why it's an omen this year if we suck. There's a precedence with little or no Dec snow during a non nino year with an AO prerty much guaranteed to end positive on the means for the month and possibly +1 standard deviations or more. I don't even want to list the years that meet that criteria because it's ugly.

Most years do in fact have a good pattern for a time during Jan and or Feb but they all ended up below to significantly below normal snow wise. So far this year has that sort of feel. Yes, it's early. Yes, it can all flip. But right now there are zero signs of important things breaking in our favor. 

 

[Stormpc]

At least we have eachother!

[mappy]

so it won't snow until 2021. Mappy install a heater for the pool and Bob Chill put on your Terps thong and lets have a Mid Atlantic Hot tub club.

All are invited. Bring whiskey.

Kinda wish an orca ate you while at sea world

Lost it.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

I can't be the only one who looks at video from LES areas and just gets angry. Like holy cow I'm moving to Pulaski NY


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[nw baltimore wx]

17 minutes ago, mappy said:

All are invited. Bring whiskey.
 

 

I can't stop talking about the 1.75 L of Bulleit I got for $34. I'll bring some.  Anything to change the pouting mood here today. I love snow as much as the next weenie, but having endured some pretty crappy winters of the '70's, I've come to embrace the short days and any Arctic cold we can get.

Like Charlie Brown says, I'm not going to let this commercialism ruin my Christmas!

 

[Thanatos_I_Am]

I've been floating Tug Hill to my gf.

I used to live in a place where if the wind was off the lake it snowed. I remember up in houghton we saw 28" of snow in 12 hours. Oh what I would do to go back.

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Been meaning to say this, but your avatar just brings back so many good memories. It just brings me joy every single time I see it.

Good to hear. I've been playing my green vinyl Vince Guaraldi album since Halloween. I can't get enough of the holiday season.

[gymengineer]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Decembers usually are pretty tame but there are other reasons why it's an omen this year if we suck. There's a precedence with little or no Dec snow during a non nino year with an AO prerty much guaranteed to end positive on the means for the month and possibly +1 standard deviations or more. I don't even want to list the years that meet that criteria because it's ugly.

Most years do in fact have a good pattern for a time during Jan and or Feb but they all ended up below to significantly below normal snow wise. So far this year has that sort of feel. Yes, it's early. Yes, it can all flip. But right now there are zero signs of important things breaking in our favor. 

 

And it's not just us so far. When Worcester and Boston (and the rest of the corridor) are also running behind climatology with not many prospects for catching up in the next 10 days, it's not a "wait our turn" winter setting up so far.

I'm starting with the position that current evidence points to a below average total this season. (Wasn't that always the more likely scenario without strong signals in any direction? Especially seeing that our median snowfall is significantly below our average.) If we luck out 3/99 or 1/00 style, awesome. 

[NortheastPAWx]

2 hours ago, BxEngine said:

You guys too? I can send metsfan to cheer you up?

AO index is falling to -0.0001 at D10. 

We're all good.

[mappy]

I can't stop talking about the 1.75 L of Bulleit I got for $34. I'll bring some.  Anything to change the pouting mood here today. I love snow as much as the next weenie, but having endured some pretty crappy winters of the '70's, I've come to embrace the short days and any Arctic cold we can get.

Like Charlie Brown says, I'm not going to let this commercialism ruin my Christmas!

 

I want snow like the next person here, I also just don't let it ruin my days when it doesn't. There is enough ****, real ****, in life that will do it for you.

With that said, I know my kid would love snow, so I hope it does.

[mattie g]

24 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I can't stop talking about the 1.75 L of Bulleit I got for $34. I'll bring some.  Anything to change the pouting mood here today. I love snow as much as the next weenie, but having endured some pretty crappy winters of the '70's, I've come to embrace the short days and any Arctic cold we can get.

Like Charlie Brown says, I'm not going to let this commercialism ruin my Christmas!

 

$35 for a 1.75 of Bulleit? Holy crap! I want some!

[nw baltimore wx]

13 minutes ago, mappy said:

I want snow like the next person here, I also just don't let it ruin my days when it doesn't. There is enough ****, real ****, in life that will do it for you.

With that said, I know my kid would love snow, so I hope it does.

 

Yeah, every kid should have snow.

 

13 minutes ago, mattie g said:

$35 for a 1.75 of Bulleit? Holy crap! I want some!

And everybody should have good, inexpensive whiskey! Local store is pretty good. If we ever get together for that homebrew exchange, I'll be sure to get you some.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Just heard from an old friend in the UP of Michigan they got 18" during the day today. Kills me knowing we are all praying for a dusting and this guy has got a years worth of snow in a day lol

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Decembers usually are pretty tame but there are other reasons why it's an omen this year if we suck. There's a precedence with little or no Dec snow during a non nino year with an AO prerty much guaranteed to end positive on the means for the month and possibly +1 standard deviations or more. I don't even want to list the years that meet that criteria because it's ugly.

Most years do in fact have a good pattern for a time during Jan and or Feb but they all ended up below to significantly below normal snow wise. So far this year has that sort of feel. Yes, it's early. Yes, it can all flip. But right now there are zero signs of important things breaking in our favor. 

 

This x100. For me the depression over the current situation has very little to do with results up to now or even the fails this week. It's about the indicators all looking dreadful for our winter prospects. Don't look at the analogs right now it will make you throw up. I actually am satisfied with about 90% of my winters. Of course I love the big years but I am satisfied with just getting at least one decent snow and a few small ones with a cold period somewhere. Only 2002, 2008, and 2012 in the last 15 years left me feeling like winter was a total waste of time. Those years are scars on my soul. And they are all showing up right now in the analogs lol. The prospects that the rare total dud year that I can't stand is starting to become a possability is depressing. i still doubt it's that bad but it's a let down that were even discussing those years right now. 

[H2O]

10 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Kinda wish an orca ate you while at sea world

Only way you'd beat me in football picks

 

i hugged a dolphin.  close enough?

 

[H2O]

9 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Good to hear. I've been playing my green vinyl Vince Guaraldi album since Halloween. I can't get enough of the holiday season.

I flat out love that soundtrack.  Finding it back in the 90s on CD was one of the happiest days of my life.  Just so soothing to listen to.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Friends, its only weather.  Don't let it get you down.  There are much worse tragedies in life than not getting the weather you want.

I recently had a close friend die of cancer.  That gives you a whole new perspective on things.

Don't let your desires blind you to your blessings.

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Friends, its only weather.  Don't let it get you down.  There are much worse tragedies in life than not getting the weather you want.

I recently had a close friend die of cancer.  That gives you a whole new perspective on things.

Don't let your desires blind you to your blessings.

 agreed, sir. sorry for your loss. 

[H2O]

10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Friends, its only weather.  Don't let it get you down.  There are much worse tragedies in life than not getting the weather you want.

I recently had a close friend die of cancer.  That gives you a whole new perspective on things.

Don't let your desires blind you to your blessings.

Mappy and i have been talking about that a lot lately.  There are waaaaaaaaaaaaaay more important things than white stuff falling from the sky.  Sorry to hear about your loss.  Cancer is a b**ch that i would love to see gone.  

I recently went on a vacation of a lifetime during Thanksgiving that was paid for by my wife's parents to celebrate their 50th anniversary.  during the vacation the father-in-law gets sick and flies back home.  We continue on with the vacation so the kids can have a great time.  We get back home and find out that my FIL has cancer as well.

So you think I should get upset about it not snowing in Dec?  Hell no.  i'm trying to deal with a situation that is far more important.

would i still like to see snow on the ground?  you bet.  just not worth gnashing teeth and kicking dogs because it isn't.  At some point I will be dealing with the pain of losing a good man to a horrible disease.  That sucks more than cold air losing to warm air and making it rain.

 

Again, sorry to hear your bad news.  may that person rest in peace.