josh_4184 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Had an awesome weekend riding around my area best conditions for Mid-December in quite a while. Hoping to get out next weekend before the meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 22, 2016 Author Share Posted December 22, 2016 Everything from Gaylord north, looks much better going forward. The warm tongue from the Grinch storm looks short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 My son and I are heading up tomorrow evening and ridding Friday from our place to the bridge for lunch and back. Coming home Friday night. You're welcome to come with us Jonger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 22, 2016 Author Share Posted December 22, 2016 3 minutes ago, slow poke said: My son and I are heading up tomorrow evening and ridding Friday from our place to the bridge for lunch and back. Coming home Friday night. You're welcome to come with us Jonger. I need to have my primary and secondary clutch rebuilt before I can ride. I might actually drag the sled up to Traverse City and drop it off for a few days. I'll take you up on the offer soon though. The clutch has 8,000 miles on it without any maintenance, it's a ticking timebomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 14 minutes ago, Jonger said: Everything from Gaylord north, looks much better going forward. The warm tongue from the Grinch storm looks short lived. I hope your right still a lot of uncertainty with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 22, 2016 Author Share Posted December 22, 2016 4 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: I hope your right still a lot of uncertainty with it. The rain is going to happen, that's for certain. It just doesn't look that long lasting. The system tilts and pulls cold air in quite quickly as it moves by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jonger said: The rain is going to happen, that's for certain. It just doesn't look that long lasting. The system tilts and pulls cold air in quite quickly as it moves by. Rain can do a lot of damage especially .5 to 1.0 but cold air does come back pretty quickly and the following system is not cutting which will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 22, 2016 Author Share Posted December 22, 2016 1 minute ago, josh_4184 said: Rain can do a lot of damage especially .5 to 1.0 but cold air does come back pretty quickly and the following system is not cutting which will help. Oh, trust me, I know that rain sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 I've seen where a little rain, 1/4" or so, followed by cold air can help the trails actually. Helps build a good hard icy base. We'll see in a few days but I'm betting the UP north of 28 will be fine after the storm. The rest of the UP and northern lower, north of Grayling and west of 75 will have some ridding areas left too I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Last few model runs looking better for the northwoods, may even get some decent snow next week and weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 I've seen where a little rain, 1/4" or so, followed by cold air can help the trails actually. Helps build a good hard icy base. We'll see in a few days but I'm betting the UP north of 28 will be fine after the storm. The rest of the UP and northern lower, north of Grayling and west of 75 will have some ridding areas left too I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 This was from Friday in north west lower Michigan, lakes of the north area, about a foot of snow on the ground at that time. The rain moved through up there already this morning and it doesn't seem like they lost to much. There's going to be snow to play/ride/ski/sled in this week but the groomed snowmobile trails will have some rough spots for sure. Could be better but definitely could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Upcoming weather looking much better, models been hinting at PV coming for another visit, latest GFS pretty pumped up on LES/System chances as well. Might get a decent snow pack built even if half of this verifies. Showing almost 60" for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 Looking really good going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 hours ago, Jonger said: Looking really good going forward. Stellar...for snowmobile country. Get 'er done GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 This Jan 2nd storm just won't settle on a track. Not liking the trend all that much. The entire state of Michigan is going to be out of commission for at least another 7 to 10 days if this keeps tracking the way it does. We get a below normal December temp regime and it gets erased by the Dec 26th turd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 hour ago, Jonger said: This Jan 2nd storm just won't settle on a track. Not liking the trend all that much. The entire state of Michigan is going to be out of commission for at least another 7 to 10 days if this keeps tracking the way it does. We get a below normal December temp regime and it gets erased by the Dec 26th turd. The trend is not our friend thats for sure, its such a shame that 1 or maybe 2 systems tracking a few hundred miles to the west can wipe out our pack and a good portion of our season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 hours ago, josh_4184 said: The trend is not our friend thats for sure, its such a shame that 1 or maybe 2 systems tracking a few hundred miles to the west can wipe out our pack and a good portion of our season. I'm a big fan of a suppressed pattern with clippers. A SE ridge of any kind will yield way to a zonal flow, which also lets storms shoot up to our west. Deep trough with clippers is what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, Jonger said: I'm a big fan of a suppressed pattern with clippers. A SE ridge of any kind will yield way to a zonal flow, which also lets storms shoot up to our west. Deep trough with clippers is what we want. Pattern certainly looks pretty amped up, good chance for a biggie but also a good chance for a cutter, current system looks to pass well to my south east which would normally put northern mi in snow but there is so much warm air pulled from the south it pushes way NW of the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 29, 2016 Author Share Posted December 29, 2016 10 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: Pattern certainly looks pretty amped up, good chance for a biggie but also a good chance for a cutter, current system looks to pass well to my south east which would normally put northern mi in snow but there is so much warm air pulled from the south it pushes way NW of the low track. You need an amped pattern for a biggie, but 1 out of 3 cut to the west and wipe out the snowpack. Weather weenies who don't actually use the snow for anything prefer the amped pattern, but they also don't care if we are starring at grass and mud half the winter. I don't care how the snow gets on the ground, as long as it's there. Currently, it's not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 1 hour ago, Jonger said: You need an amped pattern for a biggie, but 1 out of 3 cut to the west and wipe out the snowpack. Weather weenies who don't actually use the snow for anything prefer the amped pattern, but they also don't care if we are starring at grass and mud half the winter. I don't care how the snow gets on the ground, as long as it's there. Currently, it's not there. Ill probably have over 20+" otg after this weekend, hopefully the early week storm doesn't due to much damage as end of next week is looking really good for LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 29, 2016 Share Posted December 29, 2016 25 minutes ago, weatherbo said: You may well have more than that. Possibly, getting hammered right now, les starting to fire up pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 The Jan 2nd event trended right back to the Tuesday solution. Much weaker, so the rain/warmth in the lower peninsula should be minor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 CPC likes western UP for max impacts, fwiw I think they'll nail this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: CPC likes western UP for max impacts, fwiw I think they'll nail this one.. Instinct tells me this Jan 1-2 system will continue to trend west/stronger.... Hope not, all this beautiful powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Picked up about 14" overnight, maybe another 6-8 tonight thru sat , then rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 What a pain in the ass for northern Michigan. They get amazing LES, but every synoptic event brings rain over the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 31, 2016 Author Share Posted December 31, 2016 I might dabble around in northern lower if conditions are there, but I'll be hiking up to the UP and Ontario primarily. This ?SE Ridge? is really killing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 On 12/30/2016 at 5:37 PM, josh_4184 said: Picked up about 14" overnight, maybe another 6-8 tonight thru sat , then rain At least you most likely wont have to start from scratch each time it rains with that kind of base. When I lived up there, I found that it usually only took a good 4-5" to make riding decent again, unless youre talking the heavily traveled trails, which I tended to avoid, preferring the less-traveled local connectors and "back roads" of my local trail system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 1, 2017 Author Share Posted January 1, 2017 Looks like the rain tomorrow pretty much vanished. Looks like an above freezing day, but not much for precip. Gaylord might not go above freezing. Nice change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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