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Severe Weather Risk 11/28/2016


Jim Martin

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SUMMARY     THE THREAT OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH   TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND   SOUTHERN TENNESSEE. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY YET OCCUR TONIGHT   ACROSS TENNESSEE INTO KENTUCKY.  

 

    ..DISCUSSION     A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN   MS...ASSOCIATED WITH A LIFTING WARM FRONT. THESE POTENTIALLY TORNADIC   CELLS ARE NOW ENTERING NORTHERN AL. AREA SOUNDINGS AND VWP'S SHOW   SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE   AND INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN ONGOING SUPERCELLS. THEREFORE...HAVE   EXPANDED THE MODERATE AND ENHANCED RISK AREAS EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN   AL.  

 

  OTHER CELLS WERE FORMING ALONG THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVER LA   WITH ACCESS TO A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND SIGNIFICANT SHEAR. THIS   CORRIDOR OF CELLS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE LATER THIS   EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO MS. PARAMETERS SHOULD REMAIN   FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES...ALTHOUGH SUPERCELLS MAY   BECOME EMBEDDED IN MORE OF A LINE. STILL...DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR   WOULD APPEAR TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT WITH THE   STRONGEST STORMS.  

  FARTHER NORTH INTO TN AND KY...CONDITIONS REMAIN STABLE AS OF 0100Z.   HOWEVER...SOME DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS TN LATER   TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN STRONG...WITH AMPLE SHEAR TO   CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LESSER AT THIS   TIME FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER INTO KY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF STORM   COVERAGE NOW ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO THE S.    

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E NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A  

 

  * TORNADO WARNING FOR...   NORTHERN PICKENS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...     * UNTIL 745 PM CST    

 

 

* AT 716 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ETHELSVILLE...   OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MILLPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.     HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.     SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

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As a quick note, the 10% hatched tornado risk was also expanded south in Louisiana to include all of Baton Rouge, and most of Alexandria and Lafayette. The 15% hatched was edged south to include Jackson, Vicksburg and Philadelphia MS

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VERE WEATHER STATEMENT   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL   726 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016     ALC107-300145-   /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-161130T0145Z/   PICKENS AL-   726 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016     ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CST FOR   NORTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTY...  

  AT 725 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER MILLPORT...   MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.     HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  

 

  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

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FAYETTE AL-LAMAR AL-   735 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016     ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CST FOR   SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE AND SOUTHEASTERN LAMAR COUNTIES...  

 

  AT 734 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER KENNEDY...OR   NEAR MILLPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  

 

  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.     SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

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.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-161130T0230Z/   WINSTON AL-MARION AL-   741 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016     ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CST FOR   NORTHWESTERN WINSTON AND EASTERN MARION COUNTIES...    

 

AT 740 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE   BUTTAHATCHEE...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF WINFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40   MPH.     HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.    

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL   750 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016     ALC093-133-300230-   /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-161130T0230Z/   WINSTON AL-MARION AL-   750 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016  

 

  ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CST FOR   NORTHWESTERN WINSTON AND NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTIES...  

 

  AT 750 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE   BUTTAHATCHEE...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HALEYVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST   AT 40 MPH.  

 

  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.     SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

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  BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED   TORNADO WARNING   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL   809 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016     THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A     * TORNADO WARNING FOR...   NORTHWESTERN WINSTON COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA...

 

    * UNTIL 830 PM CST     * AT 808 PM CST...A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR   ASHRIDGE...OR NEAR HALEYVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.     HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

 

    SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

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ALC133-300230-   /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-161130T0230Z/   WINSTON AL-   812 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016     ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CST FOR   NORTHWESTERN WINSTON COUNTY...  

 

  AT 811 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MORELAND...OR 11   MILES NORTHWEST OF ARLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.     HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.    

 

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

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UMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH IS FORTHCOMING. THE RISK FOR SEVERE   THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...INCLUDING   NOCTURNAL TORNADO POTENTIAL. SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  

 

  DISCUSSION...RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD   OVER A BROAD PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...EXTENDING TO A   CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM MIDDLE TN   SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS AND INTO SOUTHWEST LA AND   SOUTHEAST TX. LOWER 70S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALREADY EXTEND NORTHWARD   INTO CENTRAL MS. RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPTICK IN SMALL   BANDED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES ACROSS SOUTHERN LA...WITH TRAINING   SUPERCELLS ONGOING FROM NORTHEAST LA INTO NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL MS   AND INTO WESTERN AL. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN MODEST THROUGH   THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THE RENEWED INFLUX OF RICH GULF   MOISTURE AMIDST A PERSISTENT WARM-ADVECTION PATTERN -- AIDED BY A   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET -- WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FURTHER NOCTURNAL   INCREASES IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  

 

  AMPLE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MLCAPE HOLDING   AROUND 500-1500 J/KG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MINIMAL   MLCINH. FURTHERMORE...WITH THE LCH 00Z RAOB SAMPLING A 7.4-C/KM LAPSE   RATE IN THE H7-H5 LAYER...MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL   SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION IN SUPPORT OF ENHANCED...STORM-SCALE...UPWARD   ACCELERATIONS.     A MIX OF CONVECTIVE MODES...INCLUDING SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...   WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AIDED BY 50-65 KT OF   EFFECTIVE SHEAR. FURTHERMORE...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND   200-400 M2/S2 SUPPORTED BY AMPLE LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR...

 

  THERE WILL EXIST A TORNADO RISK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A   SIGNIFICANT-TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE   SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR A BROAD   PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND VICINITY TO ADDRESS THE TORNADO   RISK LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  

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MSC087-300230-   /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0067.000000T0000Z-161130T0230Z/   LOWNDES MS-   814 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016     ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CST FOR   SOUTHWESTERN LOWNDES COUNTY...  

 

  AT 814 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BENT OAK...OR 7   MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.     HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  

 

  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

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