Severe Weather Risk 11/28/2016

[Jim Martin]

Kind of surprised this has not been talked about. Looking at a severe weather risk for tomorrow across all of Mississippi, with damaging winds being the main risk. Also, there is a non-zero risk of tornado activity.

[Brick Tamland]

To be honset, most folks don't talk much about severe threats here for some reason, especially if it isn't in NC or SC.

[WeatherDA]

Well it is the 2nd season of tornadoes. Will be watching this very closely to see if anything pans out. 

[NWNC2015]

Nobody is rooting for storms to rob our moisture in the drought areas. Precip here is already trending down to around 1". Not worrying about flooding anymore at least east of the mountains.

[jshetley]

6 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

Nobody is rooting for storms to rob our moisture in the drought areas. Precip here is already trending down to around 1". Not worrying about flooding anymore at least east of the mountains.

If this keeps up, it will stay dry east of the mountains. The last 2 models runs have not been good at all. 

[janetjanet998]

this evening and tonight look potent over LA MS into AL  

it will overlap forums but for this event the worst could be overnight east of the MS river so i guess the action will go into this thread

could a mod add the 29th to the title?

SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA TO WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE     SOME WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE MARGINAL-RISK   PROBABILITIES IN DEFERENCE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION   TO DEVELOP NEAR OR EVEN SOMEWHAT POLEWARD OF A WAVY SEGMENT OF THE   FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACCELERATES   SOUTHEASTWARD. EITHER THIS CONVECTION...OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT   LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST   ARKANSAS NEAR THE FRONT...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME   SURFACE-BASED AS THE WARM SECTOR RETURNS INLAND. ADDITIONAL   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF   LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...WHETHER ON THE FRONT OR IN WARM-SECTOR   CONVERGENCE ZONES...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD ALABAMA AND   WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE. COLLECTIVELY...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE   INTO THE PRIMARY...SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST-ORIENTED BELT OF CONVECTION   OVERNIGHT. SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS EACH ARE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING   GUSTS MAY BE THE MOST NUMEROUS EVENT TYPE...BUT TORNADOES (SOME   CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE) ALONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL   BE POSSIBLE.  

 

 

 

 

 

[janetjanet998]

based on current low 70 dewpoints moving onshore and 12z model data an upgrade to MODERATE risk is possible over MS area in later outlooks IMO

[Avdave]

On 11/28/2016 at 6:51 AM, jshetley said:

If this keeps up, it will stay dry east of the mountains. The last 2 models runs have not been good at all. 

Hey JShetley,

Have you gotten any rains from the latest system out there?

[jshetley]

18 minutes ago, Avdave said:

Hey JShetley,

Have you gotten any rains from the latest system out there?

We got some from this first round, but not much. Just under 1/3 of an inch so far. Hoping that round 2 tonight and tomorrow does better.

[No snow for you]

8 minutes ago, jshetley said:

We got some from this first round, but not much. Just under 1/3 of an inch so far. Hoping that round 2 tonight and tomorrow does better.

Really? I got over an inch at my house. 

[jshetley]

30 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

Really? I got over an inch at my house. 

I haven't looked recently, but we may be up to .50, perhaps a little more,  with that narrow line that just went through.

[janetjanet998]

1630z

 

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS   EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS A 40-50 KT   LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG   THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. A VERY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE...WITH   EFFECTIVE SRH RANGING FROM 300-400 M2/S2...AND MLCAPE REMAINING   GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE SHOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK   WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT FORM IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONE OR TWO OF   THESE TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.   LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BEST TORNADIC POTENTIAL REMAINS ACROSS   NORTHEASTERN LA INTO MOST OF MS AND NORTHWESTERN AL/SOUTHERN TN.   DEPENDING ON OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL TRENDS TODAY...A SMALL MODERATE   RISK AREA MAY BE CONSIDERED WITH THE 20Z UPDATE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL   MS.  

[Brick Tamland]

Need a title change to include today's date.

[mackerel_sky]

2 hours ago, No snow for you said:

Really? I got over an inch at my house. 

You know it never rains in the big metropolis of Jonesville! Why even bother

[janetjanet998]

BMX

 

..SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TONIGHT  

 

  THE PUMP WILL ALREADY BE PRIMED FROM THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE, AND   RICH GULF MOISTURE SHOULD EASILY SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON   AND EVENING AS AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. A FEW   SUPERCELL STORMS MAY RIDE THIS BOUNDARY NORTHWARD LATE THIS   AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND PERHAPS   A TORNADO IN WEST AL.  

 

  A GREATER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE AFTER DARK, AND RECENT   MODEL TRENDS ARE QUITE DISTURBING PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHWEST   PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE UNANIMOUSLY TRENDED TOWARD   STEEPER LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, AND SHORT RANGE   GUIDANCE INDICATES LAPSE RATES WILL ACTUALLY STEEPEN THROUGHOUT   THE EVENT. THESE LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID/UPPER 60S   DEWPOINTS SHOULD EASILY YIELD CAPE OF 800-1200 J/KG IN WEST AL.   SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER DARK ACROSS MS IN ONE OR   MORE CONFLUENCE BANDS AND INTENSIFY IN THE PRESENCE OF 0-6KM SHEAR   OF 60-70KT AND LARGE CLOCKWISE-CURVED HODOGRAPHS. THE EXACTLY   LOCATION OF THESE BANDS IS UNCERTAIN, BUT IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST   A FEW ROBUST SUPERCELLS WILL CLIP OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND CARRY   A THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. IF THIS CORRIDOR   OF ACTIVITY ENDS UP FORMING EAST OF THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS OR   PROGRESSES FASTER THAN EXPECTED, THE I-59 CORRIDOR WILL BE UNDER A   MUCH HIGHER THREAT FOR TORNADOES THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTING.    

 

THE CONFLUENCE BANDS SHOULD CONGEAL AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO A QLCS AS   THE COLD FRONT SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.   INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW-END THREAT OF   DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES EAST OF I-59 AFTER MIDNIGHT.   THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD COME TO AN END AS THE QLCS CLEARS THE   SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY.  

[janetjanet998]

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

  TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 504   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   145 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

 

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A     * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS   PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA   PARTS OF WESTERNA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI     * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL   900 PM CST.     * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

 

  A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE   SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  

 

  SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON   FROM LOUISIANA INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN   STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED THIS EVENING. INITIALLY...THE   SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND   DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO. BY LATE EVENING...   THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH   POTENTIALLY A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES.  

[janetjanet998]

20Z UPDATE    

 

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY HIGHER   STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MS THIS EVENING   INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND A SMALL MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN   INTRODUCED WITHIN THE BROADER ENHANCED RISK ACROSS THE LOWER MS   VALLEY.

[Brick Tamland]

Hope people in the area don't sleep on this, and I mean that literally with the threat coming at night. 

[yoda]

8 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

20Z UPDATE    

 

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY HIGHER   STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MS THIS EVENING   INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND A SMALL MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN   INTRODUCED WITHIN THE BROADER ENHANCED RISK ACROSS THE LOWER MS   VALLEY.

20z OTLK also mentions 00z to 04z as best time... hope people will be aware

[jojo762]

You know it's going to be an ugly day/night when literally every shower/storm that pops up immediately has a hook on it, reminds me of all the classic southern U.S. tornado outbreaks-- and the most favorable conditions are still hours away.  

[janetjanet998]

lapse rates will steepen this evening  off setting any cooling instability wise

winds backed on JAN VAD with that supercell  moving into the jackson metro 

others storms hooking out already... only storm mode forming into linear may slow the threat down..the longer it takes the worse the potential outbreak

maybe a couple broken lines of SUPS

 

also whats up with GWX radar and the funky colors?

[Avdave]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

20z OTLK also mentions 00z to 04z as best time... hope people will be aware

Channeling Eek here   "STFU Yoda"

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Avdave said:

Channeling Eek here   "STFU Yoda"

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1840.html

 

 

[SmokeEater]

BWER east of Winnsboro, LA.

[SmokeEater]

NW of Georgetown, LA.

[andyhb]

These events with maturing supercells moving into an intensifying LLJ axis tend to do ugly things. The prospect of after-dark destabilization with multiple cells traversing the warm sector is not comforting.

[SmokeEater]

Cell behind the Georgetown one just went TW'd.

[SmokeEater]

Possible TDS just west of Olla, LA. TWC just talked about it also.

[Amped]

9 minutes ago, andyhb said:

These events with maturing supercells moving into an intensifying LLJ axis tend to do ugly things. The prospect of after-dark destabilization with multiple cells traversing the warm sector is not comforting.

Doesn't look like we'll have to wait until after dark. Already several warnings and a discrete convective mode.

[weunice]

AT 350 PM CST...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR
KELLY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH


Near Grayson LA headed towards Winnsboro in north Louisiana.