Severe weather Monday NOV 28th

[janetjanet998]

centered on LA so it goes into this sub forum but may cross in MS too

 

AY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  

1150 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2016     VALID 281200Z - 291200Z  

 

  ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF   SOUTHEAST TEXAS...NORTH AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS   OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...    

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF   SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...     ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE RED   RIVER VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU...  

SUMMARY  

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FROM   PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS   WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW   TORNADOES...ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.      

..SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  

  IT STILL APPEARS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY MID   60S+ F SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY RETURN WITHIN AT LEAST A NARROW   PRE-COLD FRONTAL WEDGE ACROSS THE REGION...BEFORE THE RETURN FLOW   BECOMES INCREASINGLY CUT OFF BY EXTENSIVE CONVECTION AND/OR AN   EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. AND GUIDANCE   REMAINS SUGGESTIVE THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER   FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH   THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS   EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

THIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT GLANCING NEAR THE   IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING   APPEARING MOST PROBABLE IN A SWATH FROM WEST OF THE SABINE RIVER   NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED   GENERALLY IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME...MORE OR LESS IN PHASE THE MOST   SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.    

IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...INCLUDING LARGE   CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED   TO BECOME CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THIS   PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR TORNADOES...ONE OR TWO OF   WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG. EVEN AS THE AREA OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER   FORCING SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...   DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY LINGER ACROSS AND EAST OF THE LOWER   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

 

[Chinook]

This is a NAM forecast sounding from extreme western Mississippi tomorrow. I think, at the very least, there should be a handful of wind reports in the enhanced risk area. There is some chance that several tornadoes develop near and along the squall line.

 

[Jim Martin]

The Storm Prediction Center did indicate as well the risk for a strong tornado or two tomorrow.

[Chinook]

I guess we already had some tornadoes in the Platte Valley. A long way from the Gulf.

[Chinook]

The SPC day-1 outlook  (11PM mountain time) bumped the Enhanced Risk way up toward mid-Mississippi and even Memphis, and away from the immediate Gulf coast. The Memphis metro area is on the edge of the 5% tornado risk.

[janetjanet998]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 501   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  

1105 AM CST MON NOV 28 2016     THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A     * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS   MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA   EXTREME EAST TEXAS     * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1105 AM UNTIL   500 PM CST.     *

PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...   A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE   SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  

 

  SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND   INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE SPREADING EASTWARD FROM TEXAS   INTO LOUISIANA. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE   FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES THIS   AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE ISOLATED NOW FORMING NEAR THE   SABINE RIVER. ALSO...A LINE OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND   SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH THE   AFTERNOON AND POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.  

[SluggerWx]

Two tornado warnings ongoing in Iowa...

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[SluggerWx]

Correction, that's now 4 Tornado warned cells in Iowa

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