Hoosier Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Well, let me acknowledge right off the bat that this will end up being a fairly forgettable system in terms of exciting weather, but it's been like 3 months since we've had a thread for a particular storm system. This can be a warm-up for winter. Anyway, widespread rainfall amounts over a half inch appear likely, with some areas getting over 1". There will be a wintry side out in the Plains but generally west of our region. Should also point out that the progged sub 980 mb surface low depth would challenge some of the November pressure records out in the Dakotas. Running this thread through Tuesday, but I do believe there is still the possibility of a well developed wave tracking northeastward into the OH valley midweek. There is a lot of energy diving down the backside of the trough which I'm not sure the models have a great handle on yet. That being said, this scenario would likely still be a rainmaker for the most part as colder air lags behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 You really are Jonesing for some significant weather, aren't you? lol It does look to be pretty strong, although I was hoping that we could see some severe out of it. It looks like all of that will stay south of the Ohio. Guess we'll have to be happy with some moderate rain with some of us getting a few claps of thunder. The secondary that you alluded to is the wave that I was laughing at the GEM about the other day (a 987 low over CMH). It is back on most of the models, albeit weaker and a spine runner, right now looking to be a non player for most of the sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 27, 2016 Author Share Posted November 27, 2016 5 hours ago, IWXwx said: You really are Jonesing for some significant weather, aren't you? lol It does look to be pretty strong, although I was hoping that we could see some severe out of it. It looks like all of that will stay south of the Ohio. Guess we'll have to be happy with some moderate rain with some of us getting a few claps of thunder. The secondary that you alluded to is the wave that I was laughing at the GEM about the other day (a 987 low over CMH). It is back on most of the models, albeit weaker and a spine runner, right now looking to be a non player for most of the sub. Yay, a reply! 12z NAM has some decent instability near and north of the river in the dry slot (even a pocket of 1000 J/kg), but again, best lift has peeled off to the east by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 27, 2016 Author Share Posted November 27, 2016 18Z NAM increases the wind potential a bit as it deepens a surface low into the low 980s around northern IL in response to a wave rotating northeast. There would be a window for some decent gusts if it's right, but that's a big question. Some of the SREF members were hinting at that, but not many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Some heavy rain looking likely for me in western Ohio. Looks like 15-18mph winds with gusts near 30mph. Not going to be good hunting weather first few days of firearm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2016 Author Share Posted November 28, 2016 FWIW, it appears there were multiple tornadoes in southern Nebraska earlier in an area with fairly meager moisture and instability. Somewhat unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: FWIW, it appears there were multiple tornadoes in southern Nebraska earlier in an area with fairly meager moisture and instability. Somewhat unexpected. I saw that too. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2016 Author Share Posted November 28, 2016 Short range models taking the low down to ~973 mb later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 I picked up a nice 0.97" from the solid rain band this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 0.89 here and wind is getting pretty gusty as I type this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 Picked up 0.62" of rain tonight. Biggest "event" of this extremely benign month. Up to 1.42" for Nov. Winds have been gusting over 30mph the last few hours. In a lull now, but another round of rain should move in by midday. Hope to get a few mood flakes Wed or Thu before the system finally moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 Broken line of storms in IA. Several tor warnings with some confirmed reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 Very strange to have confirmed tors in central IA at this time of year. Shows the power of kinematics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 Got this e-mail from IWX a couple of hours ago: -On the back edge of an area of rain, a narrow line of strong showers/storms may develop with a threat of gusty winds. -Line would move rapidly from southwest to northeast -Best window will be from 6 pm to 10 pm EST. -Low confidence in the development of the line. If line develops moderate confidence in strong winds and very low confidence in isolated tornadoes -Higher wind gusts or isolated tornadoes could produce localized wind damage and power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2016 Author Share Posted November 28, 2016 My guard was up after yesterday in Nebraska. The progged thermodynamic environment in IA today was similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 Oh, I've been watching too. If Hoosier brings it up, there is validity to the concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2016 Author Share Posted November 28, 2016 Temps in the area of the tors in IA were in the 50s with dews in the 40s to around 50. That is usually pretty crappy but I think this was a case of lapse rates compensating to yield just enough CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2016 Author Share Posted November 29, 2016 1 hour ago, Indystorm said: Very strange to have confirmed tors in central IA at this time of year. Shows the power of kinematics. We'll see what DMX comes up with but here are some stats for Iowa. From 1950-2015 there have only been 7 documented tornadoes in the November 16-December 31 period, 2 of which occurred on December 23, 2015. The last tornado to occur in the back half of November was November 29, 1991. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 29, 2016 Share Posted November 29, 2016 Gonna be some good 1-2" rains across much of central IN from this system. Back edge swinging by me now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2016 Author Share Posted November 29, 2016 That area of rain/thunder in IL has been getting a little better organized. Not really expecting much to come from it but the environment isn't much different from what existed in Iowa earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 29, 2016 Author Share Posted November 29, 2016 DMX has confirmed 4 tornadoes thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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