US Climate Trends

[pgwxtype]

My personal opinion is that US climate goes in cycles, and we are at the beginning of a colder cycle.  It appears that US warming may have peaked in 2012 (www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag), and I wouldn't expect it to rise past the 2016 warming at least until at least 2030, since strong el ninos are separated by no less than 14 years.  The solar cycle continues to decrease, and suggests colder conditions, especially if we have a prolonged solar minimum like some solar scientists are predicting.  North Atlantic sea surface temperatures  have been falling since 2007,  despite the El Nino; a preliminary signal of a colder period.  The colder climate could emanate from Hudson Bay, not necessarily Western Canada, maybe affecting the Eastern US more, especially in the earlier part of the cycle, but I am not convinced of this.    Colder North Atlantic SST could also drop temperatures over Europe.  Any ideas on this ? 

[blizzard1024]

Be careful my friend. On this forum, CO2 dominates the climate which was perfectly steady for thousands of years until man started

burning fossil fuels. Now everything is related to CO2. It basically IS the thermostat all .04% of the atmosphere. Forget about natural variability. Michael Mann's hockey stick proved

that the climate was remarkably steady for 900 years until the 20th century.  Plus the US temperatures need to be adjusted even more, it was definitively even colder 100 years ago, especially over the oceans where we are most certain.  Again be careful.  The "science" is settled.   /sarc 

[ORH_wxman]

Why does everything in this forum have to be either denier or alarmist? It's pretty terrible. 

[chubbs]

Below is chart for lower 48.  With all the year-to-year variability, should look at 30+ years for trend analysis. I don't expect much change in the established trend but with large yearly variability. 

 

 

[pgwxtype]

15 hours ago, chubbs said:

Below is chart for lower 48.  With all the year-to-year variability, should look at 30+ years for trend analysis. I don't expect much change in the established trend but with large yearly variability. 

 

 

Ok,  you can believe that.   I acknowledge that the temperature rose from the late 1970s to around 1998, but 1998 was also an El  Nino year, and one could still make an argument that the rise has slowed after that.   With regards to this year, I don't know whether it is going to beat 2012 or not, regardless of whether the global temperature is the highest ever this year,    If it doesn't beat 2012, that will be the fourth year that the US temp was lower than the peak, and may be a trend.  The temperature rose until the 1930's and dropped in the 1940's and I think that is more likely the next scenario, as  SST in the North Atlantic have continued to decrease and this coupled with lower amplitude solar cycles may be reflected in a more consistent negative  NAO index, and at least affect the Eastern US  until the next strong el nino.   Ohio is an Eastern State that shows a similar tendency to the US as a whole.  

[hazwoper]

11 hours ago, pgwxtype said:

Ok,  you can believe that.   I acknowledge that the temperature rose from the late 1970s to around 1998, but 1998 was also an El  Nino year, and one could still make an argument that the rise has slowed after that.   With regards to this year, I don't know whether it is going to beat 2012 or not, regardless of whether the global temperature is the highest ever this year,    If it doesn't beat 2012, that will be the fourth year that the US temp was lower than the peak, and may be a trend.  The temperature rose until the 1930's and dropped in the 1940's and I think that is more likely the next scenario, as  SST in the North Atlantic have continued to decrease and this coupled with lower amplitude solar cycles may be reflected in a more consistent negative  NAO index, and at least affect the Eastern US  until the next strong el nino.   Ohio is an Eastern State that shows a similar tendency to the US as a whole.  

4 years worth of data may be a "trend"??  LOL!  You sure you are a scientist??  Looking at the graph chubbs provided should be evidence enough to show you that 4 years does not make a "trend" (over 110 years there are multiple instances of 4 year cooling and warming).  That, and common sense/understanding of how a large scale climate system works along with a basic understanding of statistics.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

On 11/26/2016 at 7:15 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Why does everything in this forum have to be either denier or alarmist? It's pretty terrible. 

Agreed.  I tend to hang in the middle now (even politically)and hear everybody out,  unless it's complete nonsense.

[BTRWx]

I just came across this research through a NOVA PBS article. My question is how much of their claim is imby bias? http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0168697

Here is the pbs article. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/next/earth/new-england-may-warm-by-2c-two-decades-before-the-rest-of-world/?utm_medium=novasocial&utm_campaign=nova_next&linkId=33370054

[pgwxtype]

5 hours ago, BTRWx said:

I just came across this research through a NOVA PBS article. My question is how much of their claim is imby bias? http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0168697

Here is the pbs article. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/next/earth/new-england-may-warm-by-2c-two-decades-before-the-rest-of-world/?utm_medium=novasocial&utm_campaign=nova_next&linkId=33370054

The articles claim that New England may warm by 2C two decades before the rest of the world.   The problem with that, is that if you look at the temperature trend for Maine and Massachusetts, both states have been slowly cooling in recent years.   Maine has been cooling since 2010 and Massachusetts has been cooling since 2012.  See http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag.   Every state has its own signature.  It is possible that the temperature may go back up for New England, but IMO, the coming low solar cycle will keep the trend downward.    

[BTRWx]

2 hours ago, pgwxtype said:

The articles claim that New England may warm by 2C two decades before the rest of the world.   The problem with that, is that if you look at the temperature trend for Maine and Massachusetts, both states have been slowly cooling in recent years.   Maine has been cooling since 2010 and Massachusetts has been cooling since 2012.  See http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag.   Every state has its own signature.  It is possible that the temperature may go back up for New England, but IMO, the coming low solar cycle will keep the trend downward.    

The data I've seen between ipcc and the u.s. global research report (data for New England here) looks conflicting to me.  I'm very curious where that author pulled the data!

[chubbs]

16 hours ago, BTRWx said:

I just came across this research through a NOVA PBS article. My question is how much of their claim is imby bias? http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0168697

Here is the pbs article. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/next/earth/new-england-may-warm-by-2c-two-decades-before-the-rest-of-world/?utm_medium=novasocial&utm_campaign=nova_next&linkId=33370054

I am skeptical of regional projections since model skill for individual regions has not been established. Globally land is warming faster than the ocean, so US should warm somewhat faster than the globe.