mattie g Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: It's winter in the mid Atlantic, and a La Niña winter to boot. Crushing disappointment is all part of the fun! Nina in name only. That's my line, and I'm going to stick with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 32 minutes ago, mattie g said: Nina in name only. That's my line, and I'm going to stick with it. NINO! I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Model Mayhem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Excuse me everyone, still learning and googling... what is CAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 Just now, supernovasky said: Excuse me everyone, still learning and googling... what is CAD? Cold air Damming https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold-air_damming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2016 Author Share Posted December 2, 2016 15 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Excuse me everyone, still learning and googling... what is CAD? The absolute best friend we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 And really about the only winter thing we do fairly well with. About 30 percent of the time it works every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 2, 2016 Share Posted December 2, 2016 47 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Excuse me everyone, still learning and googling... what is CAD? You can see it a little bit on the models for next week. See the sagging lines east of the mountains. This is a weak representation, to say the least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Sounds cool. Yay CAD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Does cold air damming apply to places that are higher elevation around DC though? My place in Gaithersburg looks to be about 500' elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 21 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Does cold air damming apply to places that are higher elevation around DC though? My place in Gaithersburg looks to be about 500' elevation. Yes, everywhere east of the blue ridge in VA and catoctin mountain in MD. Hopefully you get a chance to this winter to experience a good CAD event. It's one of the times where human minds can override model output. It's pretty fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 1 hour ago, supernovasky said: Does cold air damming apply to places that are higher elevation around DC though? My place in Gaithersburg looks to be about 500' elevation. If you look on Google Maps you will see US 15 to our west, running along Frederick County through northern Virginia. West of there, really good CAD will set up, while west get some scraps here in Montgomery, Howard and Carroll. Back in the winter of 2013-2014 (date?) there was a good ice event that put close to 1" of ice north of I-70. That was a once in a decade event, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'm almost giddy seeing this kind of progged cold on the GFS. Oh yeah, there's southern stream action in weenie range too. you ain't kidding. 00z GFS, please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Lol we beat climo by mid month. Digital storms are showing up right on time now that the first real cold shot is coming in less than a week. Can't wait for the first head fake inside of 10 days when both the euro and gfs have something good before losing it in the mid range. It could be a pretty big window if the nao block happens down the line. Gefs and eps are starting to agree there. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: The only problem I have with all of this is that it'll inevitably create expectations that may be hard to meet. Obviously near zero at DCA in mid December is loltastic, but if we're getting a good cold push with no snow to show for it there will be a lot of action in The Panic Room. I don't want to see that. Can't help but feel great with the ens support for a nice period of cold and storminess ahead. All we can ever ask for is to be in the game. Did we even have a digital snow threat last year? If someone expects multiple big snows in Dec around here then I don't know what to tell them other than look at Dec snowfall history over the last 30 years. I don't like hanging out with large groups of irrational people so I'll avoid the room if it's busy. Plus I never panic in Dec anyways. Could be the 7 year cycle though....you know....95-02-09-16. heh We didn't have a single real threat last December at any range. There may have been some 384 hour stuff. I don't remember but the pattern screamed no chance for weeks on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 0z gefs is the weeniest gefs run of the young season. Supports the op's repetitive pattern of cold reloads and snow chances. Jeb might need to tune up his shovels soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Nice cold shot next weekend. 0z Euro has a borderline event next Sunday night. Giddy up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Nice cold shot next weekend. 0z Euro has a borderline event next Sunday night. Giddy up. It's our first shot. Let's do it. Another shortwave on the heels exiting the Rockies. We can discuss that one after we finish tracking and shoveling the lead wave though. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 The 00Z Eps and GEFS are in surprisingly good agreement in the N hemisphere through 15 days @ 500mb. Nice to see with what looks to be a prolonged period of potential being advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 06Z GFS has a fantasy storm in the longer range (Day 14) that drops half a foot in the cities with up to ten in the north and west suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: 06Z GFS has a fantasy storm in the longer range (Day 14) that drops half a foot in the cities with up to ten in the north and west suburbs. December is generally not a snow month for most of this region, but its fun to look at on the guidance. The mean snowfall on both the 0z eps and gefs over the next 15 days aint too shabby. From SE to NW, 2-4" centered on I-95 in the DC-Baltimore area. A few members even have big snow events to our south in NC/eastern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: December is generally not a snow month for most of this region, but its fun to look at on the guidance. The mean snowfall on both the 0z eps and gefs over the next 15 days aint too shabby. From SE to NW, 2-4" centered on I-95 in the DC-Baltimore area. A few members have big snow events to our south in NC/eastern VA. After living most of my 50+ years in this region I have found that snow in December is bonus snow for most of this region outside of the far north and west subs and the higher elevations. Think that is why 09-10 is by far my favorite winter with a December to remember as well as prolific amounts of snow throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: After living most of my 50+ years in this region I have found that snow in December is bonus snow for most of this region outside of the far north and west subs and the higher elevations. Think that is why 09-10 is by far my favorite winter with a December to remember as well as prolific amounts of snow throughout. The way Dec 09 played out was incredible. One of my all time favorite tracking periods, and it delivered big time. So rare for these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 gfs seems to be in habit of creating a fantasy storm in the extended only to loose it in normal hrs. Normal!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Seems that with each passing storm coming up in the next two weeks, we may cash in on the 14th or so. And that's after a dusting with a cold front. Seems like a logical progression as the MA heads into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2016 Author Share Posted December 3, 2016 Staying up for the Euro this early in the season? You guys are going to be worn out by the end. Neither of the big boys have completely killed the Sunday night and Tuesday "events" but they're on life support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 12/19/09 will always be my favoriteSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 8 hours ago, Bob Chill said: We didn't have a single real threat last December at any range. There may have been some 384 hour stuff. I don't remember but the pattern screamed no chance for weeks on end. The only thing the pattern did last December was to toss a perfect game against us! Like I said at the time, by mid-month or so when it was pretty well hopeless for anything, I was actually beginning to root for a record warm month. Sick, I know! 7 hours ago, Deck Pic said: Nice cold shot next weekend. 0z Euro has a borderline event next Sunday night. Giddy up. Giddy up, indeed! 00Z GFS most definitely was a sight to behold as has been discussed. I know it's fantasy at this point and the cold won't even be close to as extreme as the plot WxWatcher007 showed up above. And we almost assuredly won't get pounded by two snowstorms in succession (but we can hope?). However, it's great to at least see some potential in there and to see some big-ass highs dropping down out of Canada along with some activity in the southern stream. 06Z wasn't bad either... Digital snow thread ought to get a good workout today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Staying up for the Euro this early in the season? You guys are going to be worn out by the end. Neither of the big boys have completely killed the Sunday night and Tuesday "events" but they're on life support. Ha! I'm almost never up that late anymore. Unless a snow threat is in the med-short range of course. I was DD last night so I was kinda amped up getting home late. I'll bet I feel better right now than everyone else I was with last night. LOL. On topic: Unsurprisingly the gefs seems to have officially abondoned the idea about losing the poleward AK ridge and replacing it with lower heights. Both the eps and gefs agree with keeping the blocking ridge intact. 6z gefs still had the ridge closed at d16. Good sign and goes along with the stubborn feature idea that we've seen persist the last few years (for better or for worse). 6z gefs and 0z eps keeping the developing legit -nao look going late in the period. Also looks like a cold reload poised to push into the US on the 19th. Hopefully all this stuff is real and continues through the holidays. A frustrating relaxation will probably happen at the worst time though. We're good like that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2016 Share Posted December 3, 2016 Disregarding the CFS2' 's warm temps for Dec, it's precip map for the month is very nino'ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.