mappy Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Just now, mattie g said: <shakes fist> sorry i can see who hide them, not randy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 29 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z GEFS looks... not that bad IMO... weathfella in the SNE thread has it as being awesome lol I wouldn't say awesome by any stretch but the run backed off on the se ridge trying to do some dirty work and finally a decent trough axis for the east. d12-16. It's hard to figure out the progression after the first big front. It sorta looks like the cold moves in an out and then back in again (like PSU mentioned was possible earlier). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 30, 2016 Author Share Posted November 30, 2016 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I wouldn't say awesome by any stretch but the run backed off on the se ridge trying to do some dirty work and finally a decent trough axis for the east. d12-16. It's hard to figure out the progression after the first big front. It sorta looks like the cold moves in an out and then back in again (like PSU mentioned was possible earlier). A SE ridge gets a bad name, IMO, and an eastern trough can squash snow chances almost as fast as warm air. I actually like a trough west of the Miss. river with just a smidge of a se ridge and high pressure over the north east. A big deep trough over the east is usually bone dry for us especially if that trough is too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I wouldn't say awesome by any stretch but the run backed off on the se ridge trying to do some dirty work and finally a decent trough axis for the east. d12-16. It's hard to figure out the progression after the first big front. It sorta looks like the cold moves in an out and then back in again (like PSU mentioned was possible earlier). It's relatively cold from 216 through the end of the run. Not bone-chilling stuff or anything, but a couple/few degrees C for most of that time. Pretty decent cold for mid December. Some really cold stuff in western Canada, and Russia stays ridiculously cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 6 minutes ago, mattie g said: It's relatively cold from 216 through the end of the run. Not bone-chilling stuff or anything, but a couple/few degrees C for most of that time. Pretty decent cold for mid December. Some really cold stuff in western Canada, and Russia stays ridiculously cold. by JB that cold in western canada is coming S-SE in december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 Still digging the 12/8-9 range. A week away, I know but I think that there could be something there with a back end flip as a load of cold air smashes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I wouldn't say awesome by any stretch but the run backed off on the se ridge trying to do some dirty work and finally a decent trough axis for the east. d12-16. It's hard to figure out the progression after the first big front. It sorta looks like the cold moves in an out and then back in again (like PSU mentioned was possible earlier). Past few runs of the GEFS has heights rising in the SW, which is nice trend to see...better then in the SE. Also more poleward Bearing ridge trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 7 minutes ago, packbacker said: Past few runs of the GEFS has heights rising in the SW, which is nice trend to see...better then in the SE. Also more poleward Bearing ridge trend. Running the member loops it looked like the se ridge "signal" on the means was more a byproduct of another anomalous trough/ridge traversing the country or even several more. Basically a repeat of what we are seeing on tap for next week. That's not going to do anything except warm/wet - cold/dry The consensus with 12z is rolling things forward with lower heights in eastern canada. Which is a good thing of course. Early December is a lot different climo-wise than late Dec/Jan. We need the big push in the MA/SE. SNE is a different game but our yards need a good bit extra to make it work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2016 Share Posted November 30, 2016 18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nice to see below 0 highs showing up in the Rockies and parts of northern Plaines day 7-10 ish (euro op.). Some of that has to bleed our way ( modified some ..of course). December 5/6 still isn't totally dead yet either. That ship has sailed IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 On 11/28/2016 at 10:56 AM, mitchnick said: The bias of the "old" Euro was to keep those closed lows hanging out too long in the SW. Nice test for the updated version. New monthly Cansips is out. If you are a winter lover save yourself the heartache. Except for Alaska and the northwest territories in December the whole run is warm, if not a torch, for the whole N American continent for the winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 6z GFS run appears to offer a couple of snowy possibilities late in the run with cold shots littered throughout the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 At least it will be seasonal to shots of BN temps the next couple weeks. No torches in sight minus a very brief warm up around the 6th storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: New monthly Cansips is out. If you are a winter lover save yourself the heartache. Except for Alaska and the northwest territories in December the whole run is warm, if not a torch, for the whole N American continent for the winter season. Not sure heartache is the right word- more like amusement. I mean it could be right, but we are talking the Cansips here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: New monthly Cansips is out. If you are a winter lover save yourself the heartache. Except for Alaska and the northwest territories in December the whole run is warm, if not a torch, for the whole N American continent for the winter season. I'm not a big believer in the accuracy of long-range models but Cansips nailed the summer and fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Not sure heartache is the right word- more like amusement. I mean it could be right, but we are talking the Cansips here. Haven't followed them long enough to really form a strong opinion. But if the CFS is any indication of the accuracy of these models., with its daily flips, then I am not overly impressed at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 17 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: I'm not a big believer in the accuracy of long-range models but Cansips nailed the summer and fall. Not that I buy into it but what is a touch troubling is that the Sips has been steadfast for months now on showing a crappy winter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 honestly, this has more weight than canSIPs, CFS or any other super LR models... imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 44 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: New monthly Cansips is out. If you are a winter lover save yourself the heartache. Except for Alaska and the northwest territories in December the whole run is warm, if not a torch, for the whole N American continent for the winter season. Just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Meanwhile, before the seasonal disaster plays out as depicted on the cfs/candsips...the 0z ens suite looked really good. Odds improving for scoring something before fireballs rain from the sky leaving behind scorched earth and ashes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Cansips forecast/actual for October and November. It has been good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Since we're talking about it.... Cansips DJF from 12/1/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Meanwhile, before the seasonal disaster plays out as depicted on the cfs/candsips...the 0z ens suite looked really good. Odds improving for scoring something before fireballs rain from the sky leaving behind scorched earth and ashes. I liked seeing the southwest warming in the longer range on the GFS and Euro. Hopefully it is a sign we will start seeing ridging in the west and maybe get the mean trough axis shifted farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Fwiw, cfs2 is only warm for Dec. It's been persistently average for Jan and Feb temp wise but with AN precip. Frankly, I'll take that winter forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 9 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: Cansips forecast/actual for October and November. It has been good. Pretty spot on for Oct and Nov. But the Cips may already be in trouble for its Dec temp forecast. IFFFF... the models (GFS, Euro) have a decent handle on the temps for the next two weeks then the Cips December temp forecast will need almost a nation wide blow torch in the second half to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Pretty spot on for Oct and Nov. But the Cips may already be in trouble for its Dec temp forecast. IFFFF... the models (GFS, Euro) have a decent handle on the temps for the next two weeks then the Cips December temp forecast will need almost a nation wide blow torch in the second half to verify. I agree on December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 Looks like a sweet -NAO for the whole winter on the cansips. All in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 In another note, depiction of the storm on the 6th and 7th looks very different on the euro and ggem from last night. Slides a weak low to our south with a weaker reflection into the Great Lakes. GFS has the GL low as the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2016 Author Share Posted December 1, 2016 I don't see anything to be upset about. I like our chances over the next 10-14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I don't see anything to be upset about. I like our chances over the next 10-14 days. Hopefully, you'll be singing a different tune in about 10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2016 Share Posted December 1, 2016 It's a long ways out but worth discussing a little. One of the ways we can get snow after the first big cold front is good spacing and placement with the next wave. D10 euro last night looks pretty good for either front end or even possibly getting an underneath track with the 50/50 in place. 1030+ HP right over top of the vort tracking in the middle of the country with confluence in the east instead of ridging: I'm just using the panels as an example. It would be silly to think the specific setup is real at this range. GFS has the same progression minus the 50/50 so it will cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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