stormtracker Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Looks like another good front end on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Man, 15z Sat is snow? Prob sleet. I mean, just barely..like 0.2 C at midlevels. Anyway, its moderate to heavy, whatever it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: Yes. Get used to it. We should all be used to Baltimore/DC winters and their unpredictability by now but...here we are year after year, rollercoastering our emotions with each model run, lol But for me, after 3 consecutive above average snow winters (which dosen't happen that often around here), I'm wondering if we're due for a dud! But we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Looks like another good front end on the 18z Wow! Significant snow this time for Maryland showing on even Pivotalweather.com - Ttidbits would make me smile if it were not a sleety mess that was seen as snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Man, 15z Sat is snow? Prob sleet. I mean, just barely..like 0.2 C at midlevels. Anyway, its moderate to heavy, whatever it is So I'm thinking travel in the evening with this thing shouldn't be an issue, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Haven't really followed this much bc...mid December snow around here is usually an anomaly...but cutters or lows to the west matter a lot less when temps are frigid. We've learned that the last couple winters. Cold is cold. If dews are in the teens or whatever when precip arrives then we can score in that scenario. We're used to cutters in moderately cold airmasses, not arctic ones. It's a different ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Man, 15z Sat is snow? Prob sleet. I mean, just barely..like 0.2 C at midlevels. Anyway, its moderate to heavy, whatever it is I don't think so, sleet or freezing rain. It's already sleet west of the city at 7AM despite the 850 temps as there is a warm layer above 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: We should all be used to Baltimore/DC winters and their unpredictability by now but...here we are year after year, rollercoastering our emotions with each model run, lol But for me, after 3 consecutive above average snow winters (which dosen't happen that often around here), I'm wondering if we're due for a dud! But we'll see! Not I. My standards for winter 2017 are as low as can be... eta: relative to the rest of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, usedtobe said: I don't think so, sleet or freezing rain. It's already sleet west of the city at 7AM despite the 850 temps as there is a warm layer above 850. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Looking at GFS on TT (Saturday accumulated snowfall), I think most in here would be happy with that. Am I wrong? Dont worry about the torch around 18z. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: We should all be used to Baltimore/DC winters and their unpredictability by now but...here we are year after year, rollercoastering our emotions with each model run, lol But for me, after 3 consecutive above average snow winters (which dosen't happen that often around here), I'm wondering if we're due for a dud! But we'll see! You can be jb and just take the best model run from each suite and ignore the rest. Or you can be ji and take the worst. Or you can look at everything then take a shot of tequila and pull your hair out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 8 minutes ago, usedtobe said: I don't think so, sleet or freezing rain. It's already sleet west of the city at 7AM despite the 850 temps as there is a warm layer above 850. Thanks Wes, always love your analyses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Looking at GFS on TT (Saturday accumulated snowfall), I think most in here would be happy with that. Am I wrong? Dont worry about the torch around 18z. Lol. Ya if it was snow! But a lot of that is sleet. Probably an inch or so of snow before sleetfest and then freezing rain! This is a little better for cutting down due to sleet! But I think it is still overdoing it http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2016121218&fh=180&r=us_ma&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 If only we had a 1040 hp to our North. It would mean probably more snow and negate freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Ya if it was snow! But a lot of that is sleet. Probably an inch or so of snow before sleetfest and then freezing rain! This is a little better for cutting down due to sleet! But I think it is still overdoing it http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2016121218&fh=180&r=us_ma&dpdt= Wow. I like it! If only true. I'm going to keep my fingers crossed that all levels stay colder longer than they are showing. This seems to be some serious cold coming. Won't be easy to scour out quickly (in my mind anyway). Guess we see where it goes over the next few days. Things could get better...or... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 For DCA per soundings -- 111 is snow... 114 is snow... 117 is probably still snow with rates... 120 is freezing rain... 123 is rain showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 The GFS for this weekend reminds me of that storm in late Feb 2015. I can easily see a decent snowstorm from this, changing over to light zr and drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 25 minutes ago, usedtobe said: I don't think so, sleet or freezing rain. It's already sleet west of the city at 7AM despite the 850 temps as there is a warm layer above 850. Its a very shallow warm layer at DCA at 15z... its probably still snow if its heavy rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 It's a process. It's trending better each time on the gfs. The high off the east coast inched back toward ne this run and the low to the west is further south. Do the trends continue? No idea, but lately model forecasts beyond 3 days have been jumpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 3-5 maybe 4-6 if we get lucky is what 18z GFS snow maps show on AmWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It's a process. It's trending better each time on the gfs. The high off the east coast inched back toward ne this run and the low to the west is further south. Do the trends continue? No idea, but lately model forecasts beyond 3 days have been jumpy. What would be the best case scenario. Is there a chance this could be a WSW event for both our regions or would you say it will probably only be advisory level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 4 minutes ago, Fozz said: The GFS for this weekend reminds me of that storm in late Feb 2015. I can easily see a decent snowstorm from this, changing over to light zr and drizzle. I think of Dec 2012. That one was given little chance to put down much snow but did in places. That was a storm that went to sleet very quickly but when the heavier precipitation came in it went back to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: We should all be used to Baltimore/DC winters and their unpredictability by now but...here we are year after year, rollercoastering our emotions with each model run, lol But for me, after 3 consecutive above average snow winters (which dosen't happen that often around here), I'm wondering if we're due for a dud! But we'll see! We may be due. Last year was so weird. It was a total dud except for 24 epic hours. I can't think of another winter like that in the past. Maybe 2000? But that storm dumped about half on us that most got from the storm in 2016. That was so crazy/awesome. Really saved the entire winter, at least for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just now, PaEasternWX said: What would be the best case scenario. That the high ends up much further northwest than is currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 How's it looking up my way?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Its a very shallow warm layer at DCA at 15z... its probably still snow if its heavy rates Yup. DC is borderline at 15z, but central MD is still snow (probably rimed flakes) at 15z. That's 0.5"+ of liquid equivalent for central MD before that point. Solid thump. Let's do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 TT snowmaps are lulz... 114 map has DCA around 1-2"... 120 is 6-8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 minutes ago, mappy said: How's it looking up my way? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pretty safe to say 18z GFS is the best run since that glorious Euro run a couple days ago. It's warning-level snow for the MD side of the LWX region before the flip. And probably not much ice. Snow-brief sleet-brief fzra-rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 If this event verifies with a WSW, we are looking at a possible @WinterWxLuvr win for the 1st snow storm contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 4 minutes ago, mappy said: How's it looking up my way? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Let me post a snow map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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