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December Med/Long Range Discussion

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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PaEasternWX

PaEasternWX

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


BWI = PA?

Outsiders can be good when they have something to add, but the mean thing is common knowledge and you can discuss it in your forum for your area.

 

Im sorry when you say the euro ens are bad it can be misleading. Especially when you don't say specifics. For example some may consider 2 inches in Baltimore fairly good for a mean.

Edit: Also for those that do not have wxbell, the mean is not common knowledge.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

Im sorry when you say the euro ens are bad it can be misleading. Especially when you don't say specifics. For example some may consider 2 inches in Baltimore fairly good for a mean.

It was a sizeable step back from from the 0z run and not as good as the 12z op. I don't see how that is misleading. The ens trended worse. No other way to spin it. 

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PaEasternWX

PaEasternWX

Posted
Posted
Just now, Bob Chill said:

It was a sizeable step back from from the 0z run and not as good as the 12z op. I don't see how that is misleading. The ens trended worse. No other way to spin it. 

I agree but maybe be more specific. Like instead of saying 12z ens was worse than 00z. You could say it was worse by x amount for those that did not see 00z. Like me for example. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

Im sorry when you say the euro ens are bad it can be misleading. Especially when you don't say specifics. For example some may consider 2 inches in Baltimore fairly good for a mean.

First of all this forum is DC centered and the mean there is only 1".  BWI is about 1.5, 2" starts along the northern edge of baltimore.  And that is pathetic when 48 hours ago the mean for that period was around 4" in DC and 5" in Baltimore.  Its about perspective.  2" would be fine if the trend was the right way.  This was by far the worst EPS run in a LONG time.  We lost the signal for anything significant Saturday and lost what was a decent signal for something next week also.  The mean dropped about 3" in most places.  There is no sugar coating that.  Bad run

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
Just now, PaEasternWX said:

I agree but maybe be more specific. Like instead of saying 12z ens was worse than 00z. You could say it was worse by x amount for those that did not see 00z. Like me for example. 

Are you seriously telling me how to post? You may be best served staying in your own subforum. I can assure you I'll never visit there and tell you how to post. 

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PaEasternWX

PaEasternWX

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Are you seriously telling me how to post? You may be best served staying in your own subforum. I can assure you I'll never visit there and tell you how to post. 

Im not trying to pick a fight here.  It was just a suggestion. I am not trying to tell you how to post. I am truly sorry for offending you.

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

Im not trying to pick a fight here.  It was just a suggestion. I am not trying to tell you how to post. I am truly sorry for offending you.

I mean you kind of just told him how to post. You didn't make a suggestion. This is DC centered subforum not a PA centered one. You've gotta understand that. Besides, the thread has now been more or less derailed because of this. It's a good way to get in trouble with the mods. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Well, the progression from yesterday is at least decent.  Like you said, at least we're not sliding backwards.

Since I had to take a break for a while due to work and family stuff maybe I have the perspective of looking at 3 runs at once and seeing all the data without being biased by the moments...but I am not sure we aren't still sliding backwards. 

The GGEM and Euro entire suites are still getting worse on the whole.  For 4 runs now they have been sliding the wrong way.  Maybe an op run here or there bucked the trend but if you take the entire suite of GGEM and EUro data including ensembles the trend has looked bad and continues to look worse for 4 runs now.  The mean on the Euro is now down to about 2-4" across the region from a high of 6-10" 2 days ago.  We totally lost any signal for more then a very marginal event Saturday and we also lost what was a decent signal for something next week last night on the 12z run.  Basically we are left with 2 windows and a very low chance either amounts to much. 

The good news now...the gfs and GEFS have improved.  The GEFS bottomed out 3 runs ago and since has increased its snow signal and is back to 6-10" across the region with 12z.  The GFS suite has actually been the most consistent and best with major features across our area for a while now IMHO.  So if I can only have one data point on my side I will take that right now.  Digging into the GEFS a bit more, they are pretty consistent with 3-4" across the area with this weekends system.  After that is also divergent fro the EPS in that the GFS still has a decent storm signal for next week.  There are 6 BIG hits and several other moderate ones.  A little over half manage another decent snow after next weekend from a wave up the east coast along the front that gets left behind.  Problem is they disagree on which wave.  A couple hit Monday.  A couple hit Wed/thurs.  A few have a storm around xmas.  No one period is high probability but there are several shots.  Of course we just had that type setup and its left us mostly unhappy so far so having a LOT of low probability chances can work out with some luck, or it can be a false signal if things just keep going wrong.  But the pattern next week must be better overall on the GEFS then the EPS because the euro shows almost no signal for anything.  just by looking at the Euro members quickly it seems they are more progressive so the waves next week stay to our southeast.  A few members do have decent hits but not enough to say its a signal.  The GFS is more amped up with these waves and all have something, some are just all rain.  Odd that the two models are going against their biases right now. 

I am not sure given all the data we are actually making progress.  The GFS definitely is heading the right way but the other guidance is not.  Maybe its a wash but at least we can hang out hats on the GFS having been solid lately and its the one in our corner right now. 

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PaEasternWX

PaEasternWX

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Since I had to take a break for a while due to work and family stuff maybe I have the perspective of looking at 3 runs at once and seeing all the data without being biased by the moments...but I am not sure we aren't still sliding backwards. 

The GGEM and Euro entire suites are still getting worse on the whole.  For 4 runs now they have been sliding the wrong way.  Maybe an op run here or there bucked the trend but if you take the entire suite of GGEM and EUro data including ensembles the trend has looked bad and continues to look worse for 4 runs now.  The mean on the Euro is now down to about 2-4" across the region from a high of 6-10" 2 days ago.  We totally lost any signal for more then a very marginal event Saturday and we also lost what was a decent signal for something next week last night on the 12z run.  Basically we are left with 2 windows and a very low chance either amounts to much. 

The good news now...the gfs and GEFS have improved.  The GEFS bottomed out 3 runs ago and since has increased its snow signal and is back to 6-10" across the region with 12z.  The GFS suite has actually been the most consistent and best with major features across our area for a while now IMHO.  So if I can only have one data point on my side I will take that right now.  Digging into the GEFS a bit more, they are pretty consistent with 3-4" across the area with this weekends system.  After that is also divergent fro the EPS in that the GFS still has a decent storm signal for next week.  There are 6 BIG hits and several other moderate ones.  A little over half manage another decent snow after next weekend from a wave up the east coast along the front that gets left behind.  Problem is they disagree on which wave.  A couple hit Monday.  A couple hit Wed/thurs.  A few have a storm around xmas.  No one period is high probability but there are several shots.  Of course we just had that type setup and its left us mostly unhappy so far so having a LOT of low probability chances can work out with some luck, or it can be a false signal if things just keep going wrong.  But the pattern next week must be better overall on the GEFS then the EPS because the euro shows almost no signal for anything.  just by looking at the Euro members quickly it seems they are more progressive so the waves next week stay to our southeast.  A few members do have decent hits but not enough to say its a signal.  The GFS is more amped up with these waves and all have something, some are just all rain.  Odd that the two models are going against their biases right now. 

I am not sure given all the data we are actually making progress.  The GFS definitely is heading the right way but the other guidance is not.  Maybe its a wash but at least we can hang out hats on the GFS having been solid lately and its the one in our corner right now. 

Great post. In your opinion wouldn't the GGEM/cmc siding with the euro give a flag to the euro since cmc is generally considered a bad model or no because it has been trending that way for 4 runs.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

Sorry guys. Didn't mean it. 

Back on topic:

The WPO which was responsible partially for the cold shot looks to be trending positive. Wonder what future implications will be. Also the EPO seems to want to go negative  positive. Do you guys think we come back to a warm pattern near christmas.

The coming patter, if its correct, of an ambiguous NAO alone with a very positive EPO, WPO, and -PNA would be pretty awful.  However the effects may be muted at first.  There is a lot of cold left over come xmas week.  And the cold might still seep or push into the ridging along the east a bit, especially if there is an active boundary with storms riding along it.  The longer we stay in that pattern though it will get ugly and eventually we will torch.  But that is assuming that pattern becomes stable and locks in.  To me we are entering the really key moment for our winter prospects.  Right now I am not sold what is going to happen and where we go after December.  The op GFS ends in a spot I would love as that pattern moving foreward looks great.  The ensembles indicate a much worse prospect.  The euro ends in a pretty ugly spot honestly and I wont sugar coat it might mean winters over if a deep alaska vortex forms and the NAO goes positive and they look locked in.  If we get to New Years with that were in BIG trouble.  Within the next week we may start to get an idea of what kind of winter we are dealing with.  If this is a quick reshuffle or reload and perhaps the NAO starts to cooperate we could have a decent year.  If things go the way the euro says, umm... we might be fighting to get scraps all year. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Since I had to take a break for a while due to work and family stuff maybe I have the perspective of looking at 3 runs at once and seeing all the data without being biased by the moments...but I am not sure we aren't still sliding backwards. 

The GGEM and Euro entire suites are still getting worse on the whole.  For 4 runs now they have been sliding the wrong way.  Maybe an op run here or there bucked the trend but if you take the entire suite of GGEM and EUro data including ensembles the trend has looked bad and continues to look worse for 4 runs now.  The mean on the Euro is now down to about 2-4" across the region from a high of 6-10" 2 days ago.  We totally lost any signal for more then a very marginal event Saturday and we also lost what was a decent signal for something next week last night on the 12z run.  Basically we are left with 2 windows and a very low chance either amounts to much. 

The good news now...the gfs and GEFS have improved.  The GEFS bottomed out 3 runs ago and since has increased its snow signal and is back to 6-10" across the region with 12z.  The GFS suite has actually been the most consistent and best with major features across our area for a while now IMHO.  So if I can only have one data point on my side I will take that right now.  Digging into the GEFS a bit more, they are pretty consistent with 3-4" across the area with this weekends system.  After that is also divergent fro the EPS in that the GFS still has a decent storm signal for next week.  There are 6 BIG hits and several other moderate ones.  A little over half manage another decent snow after next weekend from a wave up the east coast along the front that gets left behind.  Problem is they disagree on which wave.  A couple hit Monday.  A couple hit Wed/thurs.  A few have a storm around xmas.  No one period is high probability but there are several shots.  Of course we just had that type setup and its left us mostly unhappy so far so having a LOT of low probability chances can work out with some luck, or it can be a false signal if things just keep going wrong.  But the pattern next week must be better overall on the GEFS then the EPS because the euro shows almost no signal for anything.  just by looking at the Euro members quickly it seems they are more progressive so the waves next week stay to our southeast.  A few members do have decent hits but not enough to say its a signal.  The GFS is more amped up with these waves and all have something, some are just all rain.  Odd that the two models are going against their biases right now. 

I am not sure given all the data we are actually making progress.  The GFS definitely is heading the right way but the other guidance is not.  Maybe its a wash but at least we can hang out hats on the GFS having been solid lately and its the one in our corner right now. 

Now wait a minute...so first, 2 days ago, the GFS was alone in things going the opposite way, and now it's alone in predicting more of an event while the other models don't? Lol

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

Great post. In your opinion wouldn't the GGEM/cmc siding with the euro give a flag to the euro since cmc is generally considered a bad model or no because it has been trending that way for 4 runs.

I am not sure the GGEM really weights things much, its been pretty awful for a while.  That said I don't ever want something not on my side, more data is still more data but the ggem is a pretty weak argument. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

I agree PSU. The pattern being advertised late can't be sugar coate. Yea, it probably won't be a torch and yes, we will likely have fronts clear that deliver air cold enough to be considered wintry....but all the important upper air features have the blues and oranges in the wrong places.  It's one thing to have something like a -pna but an easy way out because other things look ok. But when the ao/nao/pna/epo/wpo all gang up unfavorably on the means it usually means trouble for a while. 

 

Of course it could all change in a week and we worried for nothing but seeing all guidance look the same is unnerving to say the least. Even the strat pv is getting strong again.  Lol

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted

12z para-GFS looks like a widespread 2-4"/3-5" snow before any flip.  Don't have much info on TT as far column temps, etc., and the data's not out on NCEP yet.  But basically the whole system is juicier relative to earlier runs and gets more precip in by 12z saturday.  

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I agree PSU. The pattern being advertised late can't be sugar coate. Yea, it probably won't be a torch and yes, we will likely have fronts clear that deliver air cold enough to be considered wintry....but all the important upper air features have the blues and oranges in the wrong places.  It's one thing to have something like a -pna but an easy way out because other things look ok. But when the ao/nao/pna/epo/wpo all gang up unfavorably on the means it usually means trouble for a while. 

 

Of course it could all change in a week and we worried for nothing but seeing all guidance look the same is unnerving to say the least. Even the strat pv is getting strong again.  Lol

Something bugging me for a while is how the models all want to go towards a really bad PAC pattern late. Yea they were too fast like usual but the pessimist in me said hmm something in the data input to the models is telling them that's coming. And it probably is. The question is will that be the dominant base state of the winter or just a transient thing. Cansips says that's it. Euro weeklies transitions to a pretty good pattern by mid January. Cfs actually looks good on most runs lately and wow the Cfs snowfall looks great most of the time but that thing is worthless. I have no read but I'm nervous. We will know soon. If we get past Xmas and we're stuck in that pattern with no end in the long range guidance I think we're looking at a dud winter. I know in 2015 I kept saying wait even when we went into feb with nothing but the analogs and pattern that year said we could have a good late winter. This year when I was looking at data the years that went into mid January bad were all pretty ugly. We're quickly losing all the good analogs the longer we go without significant snow. I guess that has me more down when typical this early. All the years that turned out good in this type pattern we got some good snow by Xmas. Even though that is rare around here. 

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Wonderdog

Wonderdog

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z para-GFS looks like a widespread 2-4"/3-5" snow before any flip.  Don't have much info on TT as far column temps, etc., and the data's not out on NCEP yet.  But basically the whole system is juicier relative to earlier runs and gets more precip in by 12z saturday.  

Para GFS has looked better, winter-wise than the GFS but it's cutter after cutter after cutter, regardless of how cold it is 12 hours before precip starts. IMO, we will be very lucky to score that much snow in this pattern. Hope I'm wrong. Would be nice to warm up the snowblower this weekend.

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now wait a minute...so first, 2 days ago, the GFS was alone in things going the opposite way, and now it's alone in predicting more of an event while the other models don't? Lol

Yes. Get used to it.

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