Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 So it's safe to assume this is overdone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro TBH just has not been great since the upgrade. I know it's only been 10 months or so but it really seems they put most effort into it to help its forecasts over Europe and it's made it have some issues here It hasn't held up to its 'King' status since the upgrade but to be fair all the models have been running rough this winter. Not sure how it did during the summer so I can't speak for that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 GFS has a nice mecs @ 372. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: So it's safe to assume this is overdone? Yes, without question as far as the model run goes. The wxbell snow algorithm is heavily weighted on 850 temps and lesser with the surface (35 degrees still = 10:1 ratios which is dumb). The other levels are not included. It's a sleetfest for a time before the flip to zr. Sleet is counted as snow on wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: So it's safe to assume this is overdone? I just wish the 8-9" the GFS shows for me is as believable as the 8-9" it shows for Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: So it's safe to assume this is overdone? yes. the changeover begins after 12z Saturday. By 18z everyone is sleet/freezing rain. 6 inches does not fall in DC before that flip happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 18 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I doubt many are thinking heavy snow event. The 12z euro yesterday was max potential and unlikely. We've had plenty of similar type of events in the past. Usually a burst of snow that can over perform sometimes but usually in the 1-5" range tops followed by a flip and countdown to a drip fest. Flips usually happen earlier than we want and the drip fest Usually starts later than forecast. That actually sounds like a good forecast. I'll go with that for now. Lol Still lookin good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Bob Chill for president Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 6 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: So it's safe to assume this is overdone? It's safe to say hr 138 of any model will not verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, mappy said: Bob Chill for president Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS has a nice mecs @ 372. Book it. Big ol SE ridge with it. I tell you what i like about this run is that it really shows that hanging back energy in the SW keeps the SE ridge at bay. We don't torch and stay seasonable with cold shots giving us chances at wintry weather. It's only at the end of the run do we see some funny pattern stuff that means dick wrt verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 The follow-on low that the 12z GFS generates shows up on the CMC as a big, big ice storm for the region Mon-Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 4 minutes ago, mappy said: yes. the changeover begins after 12z Saturday. By 18z everyone is sleet/freezing rain. 6 inches does not fall in DC before that flip happens. Pretty much, I've never seen 6 inches in DCA in these types of systems before the changeover unless some random mesoscale band forms. PHL got 9 inches in a southwest flow system a few years ago because of that. In general though I find the ceiling in these things for snow is 3 in DCA, 4-5 in PHL and 5-6 in NYC and those are usually only reached in rare events. It's usually less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 40 minutes ago, stormtracker said: How much would we all pay for blocking right now My life savings. I pull hard for snow within a week of Christmas. a beautiful wet snow that sticks to everything and really makes the decorations shine bright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: My life savings. debts don't count! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 To maybe clear things up, below are NCEP generated Dominant precip type at 12Z on Saturday and 18Z. I think we can trust these maps the most of all of them since they are put out by NCEP. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/dom_precip_type/gfs_namer_126_dom_precip_type.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I love it when I come here about an hour after a model run and notice 2-3 new pages. Usually means the models finally did something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 About a tight a cluster as you can get @ 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: My life savings. I pull hard for snow within a week of Christmas. a beautiful wet snow that sticks to everything and really makes the decorations shine bright. Now your talking...... I'm asking Santa for a -NAO..... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just now, pasnownut said: Now your talking...... I'm asking Santa for a -NAO..... Nut He's thinking about it at least...roll this pattern forward and we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: He's thinking about it at least...roll this pattern forward and we're good. When's the last time we saw a south east ridge with a -NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 15 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Now your talking...... I'm asking Santa for a -NAO..... Nut He's making a ridge - he's checking it twice. Gonna find out who's naughty gets ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Dat D7 CAD: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Dat D7 CAD: Literally about to come here and share the same thing! WOW! Who was it that wanted to understand CAD? That is a map to save there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: He's thinking about it at least...roll this pattern forward and we're good. Wonder if this is the initial steps in the development and progression of the - NAO as shown by the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Even if we could pop like a 1025mb high over Quebec..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 8 minutes ago, frd said: Wonder if this is the initial steps in the development and progression of the - NAO as shown by the weeklies. CFS weeklies have it too now. Check back next run, it might vanish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Lol called it He's unbelievable with that crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: He's thinking about it at least...roll this pattern forward and we're good. If the Negative NAO materializes is that a east block -NAO or west block -NAO?. I can't help but notice in the pacific there is a ridge building possibly poleward?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 I'm going with 1-12" region wide before the change over and 0.1 - 1" ice. Say what you will, but I just nailed the Sat storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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