Eskimo Joe Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 RIP DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: RIP DGEX NAM 3K now running on TT. ETA - honestly, if they want to kill off any model, my vote would be for the 32KM nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: What's it got for Wednesday? Pretty much nothing. Most models have made modest attempts at trying to rescue that event, but I fear we are running out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 17 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I may be wrong, but the 06z GEFS has some members showing some decent frozen precip on the backend this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: RIP DGEX Makes sense. It is a redundant product. The NAM and GFS have it covered. I am glad to see the NAM is getting a lot more upgrades though. Thanks for the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Rgem went all in on cold rain... Precip first. My goodness, it may be my desire to see it, but the gfs looks close for Tues night. A dusting - 1" would be great IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 I need a winter house in Northern Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 12 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: I need a winter house in Northern Maine Davis, WV is a lot closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 GFS has precip in the area @ 6z Sat. That's faster. Heights are a touch lower out in front so the track is slightly south. Not a bad trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Wow, GFS is actually a "decent" snow hit before ice begins. A lot more precip while the column is good vs 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just now, Bob Chill said: Wow, GFS is actually a "decent" snow hit before ice begins. A lot more precip while the column is good vs 6z. 6z was the first positive trend id seem from gfs in days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Wow, GFS is actually a "decent" snow hit before ice begins. A lot more precip while the column is good vs 6z. Surface freezing line still south of immediate DC metro at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Wow, GFS is actually a "decent" snow hit before ice begins. A lot more precip while the column is good vs 6z. Yup, was just about to post. It's not bad. Not the greatest we've seen, but much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Heh..GFS trying to make a moderate event out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yup, was just about to post. It's not bad. Not the greatest we've seen, but much better Temps are in the low to mid 20's @ 12z with plenty of precip through 18z. It would be messy as heck but would definitely hit the mark for a significant event here. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Wow, GFS is actually a "decent" snow hit before ice begins. A lot more precip while the column is good vs 6z. trough out west isn't as sharp on the 12z. you can see the diff comparing the 6z and 12. interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Mmm. If GFS is right, guess I'm not taking the kiddo to Dutch Wonderland Saturday night for Christmas lights and Santa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Temps are in the low to mid 20's @ 12z with plenty of precip through 18z. It would be messy as heck but would definitely hit the mark for a significant event here. I'm in. Thats one heck of a cold air mass , potential on this Wednesday night and Thursday East of the Bay, for very windy conditions and may even require a high wind advisory. Going to feel at least like deep winter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, mappy said: Mmm. If GFS is right, guess I'm not taking the kiddo to Dutch Wonderland Saturday night for Christmas lights and Santa. That makes me sad! I wanna go! Sounds awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 We could be coming up on that weenie-riffic time of "the close we get in, the model starts 'seeing' the strength of the cold air". I mean, this is just what I've heard. I've never, ever thought like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 18z Saturday would be dicey for sure. Heavy precip, surface temps 28-29 (IMBY) 850 temp: +4-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: WTH! What's wrong with the GFS? ETA: Mitch deleted...wrong map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016121212&fh=138&xpos=0&ypos=480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just now, mitchnick said: WTH! That likely is counting sleet as snow. I think the midlevels would warm fast enough that 6 inches in the DCA area would be hard to come by. Further northwest maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just now, stormtracker said: What's wrong with the GFS? DC = New Jackpotville? Whoa! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 20c warm front at 850 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just now, stormtracker said: What's wrong with the GFS? Looks like the Euro from a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Even if its a huge sloppy mess, it’s still something to watch. 850s… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 We're back to a simple but important thing that has been very consistent for a few days. The column is good through 12z+/- Saturday. GFS shifted faster and more precip so we reap some benefits on the run. The changes @ h5 showed up early too so the trend is believable for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're back to a simple but important thing that has been very consistent for a few days. The column is good through 12z+/- Saturday. GFS shifted faster and more precip so we reap some benefits on the run. The changes @ h5 showed up early too so the trend is believable for now. looks like about .2" qpf for most by 12z Saturday. Would be all snow given the cold column. hard to tell when the switch would occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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